A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; some more TD rate rises, consumer sentiment rises marginally, SkyCity faces reckoning, Li Keqiang dies, swaps on hold, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank raised its home loan rates by +10 bps across the board.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ and Heartland both raised TD rates today, but none were to unique levels - although Heartland is now matching Rabobank.

MARGINALLY LESS PESSIMISTIC
Although it was little-changed, the ANZ consumer confidence index for October continued its slow upward climb up even if still deep in negative territory. But falling back was the indicator on whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item. And inflation expectations rose undoing September's fall. It now sits at 4.5%. (Even if survey respondents aren't particularly good at picking the level, their view of where it is shifting is important.)

SERIOUS & MATERIAL
SkyCity says a resolution of its civil prosecution under Australian anti-money laundering laws for breaches at its Adelaide casino will probably involve admitting to “serious breaches’’ and incurring a “material fine’’. Donna Cooper, the ex CEO of TSB has been appointed a director at the casino company.

AUSSIE PPI TICKS UP
In Australia, their producer price index rose by +1.8% quarter-on-quarter in September, rising from a +0.5% gain in Q2 (which was the lowest in over two years). The Q3 rise was the 13th straight period of growth and the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2022. They are up +3.8% in a year.

DOWN, BUT LESS
Profits earned by China's industrial firms fell by -9.0% from a year earlier, in the first nine months of 2023, amid weak demand at home and abroad and persisting margin pressures. The decrease followed a 11.7 % slump in the prior period

LI KEQIANG DIES
We should also probably note that ex-Premier Li Keqiang, the recently retired second in command in China, died today in Beijing of a heart attack. He was known as an 'economic reformer' but his initiatives floundered beneath the drive by President Xi to make himself the center of all China policy.

SWAPS HOLD
Wholesale swap rates have probably held little-changed today across the whole curve. The real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is -1 bp softer at 5.64% and now +14 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps from yesterday to 4.83%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.73%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 5.54% from yesterday, but still above the earlier RBNZ fixing of 5.46% which was down -4 bps from yesterday. The UST 10 year yield is back down -10 bps from this time yesterday at 4.87%. The UST 2yr is back down -6 bps to 5.06%, so the curve inversion has widened today.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.8% in late trade today and taking the weekly drop to -2.3%. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade and if it stays like that it will record a -1.0% weekly drop. Singapore is little-changed at its open. Tokyo has opened strongly, up +1.0% and if that holds it is on its way to a -0.8% weekly fall. Hong Kong has opened up +1.0% and heading for a modest +0.5% weekly rise. Shanghai has opened little-changed and ahead +0.6% for the week so far. On Wall Street, they closed their Thursday session down -1.2% to be down -2.0% so far this week, hurt by tech company results.

GOLD ON HOLD
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$1984/oz and little-changed from this time yesterday. Earlier in New York it closed at US$1985/oz, and earlier still in London it closed at US$1975/oz.

NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar has risen +¼c from this time yesterday and is now at 58.2 USc. But against the Aussie we are marginally softer than yesterday 92 AUc. Against the euro we are down -½c at 55.2 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is up a bit less than +20 bps at 68.3.

BITCOIN SOFTER
The bitcoin price is softer today, now at US$33,975 and down -2.2% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.6%.

GO THE ALL BLACKS

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