A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; spring housing market lackluster, wages up, Tower soggy, EU-NZ FTA up-voted, another strong bond tender. swaps up, NZD on hold, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Resimac has trimmed its rates today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes for these today.

NOTHING SPECIAL
Property website Realestate.co.nz is reporting a slight increase in average search activity per listing. It rose less than +2% year-on-year, more evidence that this year's spring home selling season is turning out to be a lackluster affair.

LEEDs DATA RELEASE
The routine activity from employer payrolls generates a mountain of data. The IRD anonomises it and provides it to Stats NZ who release it a year later as their LEEDs series. They have just released the September 2022 data. That shows that over the prior year, there were +47,640 more filled jobs taking the total to 2,298,070. Gross earnings were up +9.7% over all these employees in the year. Average earnings were up +8.2% per employee and median earnings up +8.7%. But new hires did it tougher, with new hire average earnings up just +4.5% although the median was a much better +7.1% higher. That must mean that those at the top had much lower gains to skew the average down.

RESILIENCE FROM CATASTROPHES?
'Catastrophic weather events' have dealt insurer Tower a soggy full-year result. They say they have faced significant challenges this financial year, but its underlying result 'demonstrates resilience and strategic delivery' that positions the company well for long-term sustainable growth and performance.

A NEW SUMMER BOATING OBLIGATION
Unfortunately, the Mediterranean fanworm infestation is spreading in our coastal waters. A new outbreak has been located in the Bay of Plenty. Coromandel, Tauranga, and Nelson harbours all have known existing infestations. Eradication efforts are underway, but it is a marine pest originally identified in 2008 and never fully cleared. Boaties must be careful as they are the primary spreader threat.

THE PRESSURES ON BEEF PRICES
Global beef markets continue to be a story of two contrasting parts, with high prices and contracting production in the Northern Hemisphere, and lower prices and increasing production in the Southern Hemisphere, according to a new report by Rabobank. Southern Hemisphere production centres continue to increase volumes. However, the increases in Australia and Brazil have not been enough to offset the declines in Europe and the US.

THE EU PARLIAMENT GIVES A TICK
Overnight the European Parliament voted in favour of ratifying the New Zealand-European Union Free Trade Agreement (NZ-EU FTA), with 524 votes in favour, 85 against and 21 abstentions. This is the largest majority in favour of any EU trade agreement since 2011. Following this vote there are still some administrative steps required to complete the EU’s ratification process, including adoption of the approval vote by the Council of the EU and the passage of implementing regulations. And New Zealand needs to pass implementing legislation in order to ratify the agreement. Draft legislation has been prepared and, once a new government is in place, this will go to Cabinet to approve its introduction to Parliament. This is an FTA with a low likelihood the benefits promoted by the negotiators will actually arrive. It is more likely to be a stick the EU can beat us with.

ANOTHER STRONG BOND TENDER SUCCESS
As expected, today's tender of $500 mln nominal NZGBs, comprising $225 mln 2029, $225 mln 2033 and $50 mln 2037 bonds went well. The April 2029 one got 43 bids worth $544 mln and the yield slipped slightly from the prior equivalent event one week ago, now at 4.81%. The April 2023 issue attracted $719 mln in 59 bids, going tp 11 winners at 4.92% yield, down from 5.49% four weeks ago. The April 2037 issue got $213 mln in bids and went for 5.09% yield, down from 5.14% two weeks ago. All u[p that was $1.476 bln bid for $500 mln on offer.

SWAPS RISE
Wholesale swap rates have probably risen today, especially at the short end. The real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.63% and now just +13 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps from yesterday to 4.50%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 2.70%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 5.03%, and the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 5.00% which was up +7 bps today. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.40% and down -1 bp from this this time yesterday. The UST 2yr is now at 4.90% so that key curve inversion is now out to -50 bps.

EQUITIES GO NOWHERE WHILE WALL STREET SNOOZES
The NZX50 is down -0.2% in late trade. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade although it was down much more than this earlier. Tokyo is closed for a public holiday, Workers day. Hong Kong is down -0.2% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.1% after yesterday's big drop. Singapore is down -0.1% at its opening. Wall Street closed its Wednesday trade up +0.4%. It will be closed tomorrow, and open for a stunted half-day trading session on Friday (Saturday NZT). So far it is up +0.9% for the week.

GOLD ON HOLD
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$1994/oz and down a mere -US$1 from this time yesterday. Earlier it closed in New York at US$1989/oz. Earlier still it closed in London at US$1998/oz.

UNSETTLED BUT LOWER
The oil price fell sharply last night (as we reported this morning), but it has recovered - but not quite all that it fell by. The US WTI price is now at US$76/bbl. The international Brent price is just under US$81/bbl. So for all the volatility, the trend is slightly lower.

NZD ON HOLD STILL
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this time yesterday, still at 60.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are at 92.2 AUc and also little-changed. Against the euro we are up marginally at 55.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is still at 69.7.

BITCOIN TURNS BACK UP
The bitcoin price has moved back up today, now at US$37,443 and up +3.8% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.5%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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