Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.
CHUNKY RETREAT I
Manufacturing sales in Q3-2023 fell a whopping -$2.5 bln from the same quarter a year ago (and before accounting for inflation) and that is the largest fall ever recorded apart from the pandemic and the GFC. Those sales were down -7.6%, and along with it manufacturers have started reducing inventories (both raw materials and finished goods) in an indication that actually don't think things will improve any time soon.
CHUNKY RETREAT II
The same data set released shows that retail sales were flat in dollar terms, and again before accounting for inflation. They are lower in volume terms, just not as hard hit as their less vocal colleagues in the factory sector.
WHERE & WHY ITS SLOW
Meanwhile, Westpac has been analysing their customer's credit and debit card activity to glean insights into the drivers of retail activity. They found spending growth has continued to slow in recent months in the face of ongoing financial headwinds, with households increasingly focused on value for money (rather than 'nice to haves'). Separately, Worldline is finding "mixed" retail in the holiday season buildup.
HOLIDAY SEASON RISK FOR RETAILERS
The RBNZ is reminding retailers to train new cash handling staff on the fast and easy ways to spot fake banknotes. The say we generally don't have a huge counterfeiting problem, and the fake banknotes caught are low quality and easily detected using the look-feel-tilt method. But sometimes scammers take advantage of busy holiday seasons and inexperienced staff to try it on.
STRONG JOBS GROWTH
Stats NZ analysis of filled jobs shows them up more than +3.0% in the year to September, now totalling 2.276 mln (+67,000 for that year). Total earnings were up +9.0% (which of course includes those new 67,000 who weren't in the data a year ago). The fastest growing regions recently (proportionately) were Auckland and the Bay of Plenty. The sectors where job growth was fastest were "healthcare and social assistance", "administration and public safety", and "arts & recreation" (and at the risk of being rude, all public sector areas that have been complaining the most).
UPGRADED, (NOT OF THE GOOD KIND)
The FMA has upgraded its Stop Order against David McEwen, making it a permanent one. They claim it is because of "false", "misleading", "material misdescription" and "material error" were involved. This order not only relates to him, but also Stockfox Limited, Cosmopolitan Holdings Limited, Strategy Services Limited, Fund Administration Services Limited, Digitech 1 Limited, M and A Holdings 1 Limited, M and A Holdings 2 Limited, Agtech 1 Limited, Agtech 2 Limited, Agtech 3 Limited, Startight Holdings Limited, Innovative Capital Limited, and McEwen’s Limited Partnership.
FOUR MORE SOLAR FARMS ...
Singaporean company OC Oscar has been granted OIC approval to buy 185 hectares of land to construct 4 solar farms at various site in the North Island. When operational (in 2025), that will add 221 GWh of renewable electricity per year to the national grid.
... AND TWELVE MORE FORESTRY CONVERSIONS
The same public notice for October shows that twelve more foreign companies were granted approval to buy farms for forestry.
SWAPS FIRM
Wholesale swap rates are probably firmer today. However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.63% and now +13 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +7 bps 4.33%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.70%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps at 4.98%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.87% which was up +3 bps today. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.17% and up +4 bps from yesterday. The UST 2yr is now at 4.61% so that key curve inversion is marginally higher at -44 bps.
EQUITIES QUITE MIXED
The NZX50 is heading for a -0.4% retreat in late trade today but if that holds it will be up +0.7% for the week. But the ASX200 is unchanged so far today in afternoon trade and if that holds it will be up +1.5% for the week. Tokyo has opened down -1.6% in a continuing back-peddling and on the way to a -3.0% weekly fall. Hong Kong has also opened unchanged heading for a -3.4% drop for the week so far. Shanghai is continuing the same theme, unchanged at today's open but on the way to a weekly -2.2% drop. Singapore is up +1.0% at its start and might end the week in positive territory. The S&P500 ended up +0.8% in Thursday trade in New York which makes it level-pegging with where it finished last week.
OIL HOLDS LOWER
The crude oil price is essentially unchanged from yesterday, now at US$70/bbl in the US, and the Brent benchmark is at US$75/bbl.
GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2030/oz and up +US$2 from this time yesterday. Earlier in New York it closed at US$2028/oz. And earlier still it closed in London at US$2027/oz.
NZD RETREATS
The Kiwi dollar is almost -¾c lower that this time yesterday, now at 60.7 USc. Against the Aussie we have fallen -40 bps to 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 57.2 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is down to 70.2.
BITCOIN BREATHER EXTENDS
The bitcoin price has moved down to US$43,402 and a retreat of -1.2% from where this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%.
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