Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
ANZ trimmed its two and three year fixed rate. Details here. That has resulted in ANZ offering the lowest carded rates for these two fixed terms among all the major bank.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ also trimmed three term deposit rates, although these are only for the 2, 4 and 5 year durations.
'A HINT OF CHRISTMAS CHEER'
The ANZ-Roy Morgan monthly consumer confidence survey posted a minor improvement in December although the level remains quite low by historical standards. It mirrors what Westpac's survey reported a few days ago. Today's ANZ survey recorded inflation expectations dropping to 3.9% from 4.6% in November, probably because of cheaper fuel prices. This is the first sub-4% result in three years. Those surveyed are not keen on buying a major household item at present.
DAIRY PRICES RISE
At today's dairy auction, prices in USD rose +2.3%. However WMP was up +2.9%, cheddar cheese was up 6.9% and butter was up +9.9%. All this is positive, however, the NZD also rose notably today, so prices are very little-changed in NZD terms. Farmers will be hoping dairy companies have got their fx hedging right. Westpac thinks they might have; they raised their forecast for the current season payout by +25c to 7.50/kgMS. This however just brings them in line with other analyst forecasts. We should also note that it is not usual for the final dairy auction of the year to reflect a rise; six of the previous eight years have brought declines in this final auction.
SENIOR ANZ NZ EXECUTIVES SWITCHING ROLES
ANZ NZ says Grant Knuckey, its Chief Risk Officer, and Ben Kelleher, its Managing Director of Personal Banking, will be swapping roles in April. CEO Antonia Watson says the switch is about creating greater skills across the bank's leadership team. Modern businesses require multi-skilled people with adaptable outlooks, she says. The switch is subject to the Reserve Bank confirming it has no objection.
NZX50 UPDATE, AN +$800 MLN BOOST
The NZX50 has been revised today with Synlait (SML, #50) and Pacific Edge (PEB, #48) moving out, and Gentrack (GTK) and Turners Automotive (TRA) moving in. But the two newbies are not going in at the bottom. Gentract goes in as #32 and Turners at #41. The capitalisation of the two new additions is significant; the two moving out had a combined capitalisation of $281 mln, whereas the two moving in have a combined capitalisation of $1.1 bln. Our NZX50 monitoring has been updated. (For those with long memories, Turners Automotive is actually a revised and reconstituted Dorchester Finance, a finance company that survived the GFC and acquired Turners in 2014.)
FEWER FEES
ASB says it is removing some transaction fees across its personal and business accounts, including fees on Visa Debit cards, staff assisted transactions, and the establishment of personal overdrafts. They say this will save customers $14 mln annually. (In the year to June, 2023, ASB's profit before tax was $2.167 bln. See page 10.)
CRYPTO VIA REVOLUT
Revolut New Zealand customers can now buy and sell cryptocurrencies from within the Revolut app. See here and here.
HOME DETENTION FOR TAX FRAUD
A Gisborne fisherman who ran Elohim Fishing has been sentenced to seven and a half months home detention and 100 hours community work on tax evasion charges. He was sentenced in the Gisborne District Court on 19 December on 3 representative charges of trying to evade GST, business, and personal income tax. The offending started just two years after Waikari was convicted for failing to file other income tax and GST returns.
MORE INTERVENTION CAPACITY
The RBNZ's foreign currency intervention capacity rose +$150 mln in November from October to now be at NZ$18.6 bln. Recall this was under $13 bln in June and $12.2 bln a year ago. That a +50% rise in a year.
GEOPOLITICAL TENSION SHRINKS TRADE
Japan's exports shrank in November when a small gain was expected. Data released today shows they fell -0.2% from the same month a year earlier mainly because China-bound chip shipments dived, underscoring worries that slowing overseas economies may deal another blow to the trade-reliant economy just as their domestic demand slows. At the same time imports dived significantly and that meant their trade deficit shrank rather quickly.
SWAPS HOLD
Wholesale swap rates may be little-changed today as the year winds down. However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.63% and now +13 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.08%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.65%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up also down -4 bps at 4.59%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.55% down -2 bps today. (Recall we started the year at 4.41%.) The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.92% and down -2 bps today. It started the year at 3.77%, fell to 3.30% in April before rising to 4.98% in October before retreating since The UST 2yr is now at 4.44% so that key curve inversion is still at -52 bps.
EQUITY WINNERS & LOSERS
The NZX50 is down -0.2% from yesterday near the close today. But we are essentially unchanged since the start of the year. The ASX200 is up another +0.6% from yesterday heading for a 2023 gain of +8.4%. Tokyo has opened up +1.6% from yesterday heading for an annual rise of more than +31%. Meanwhile Hong Kong has opened up +1.1% today but that won't touch the sides of an annual decline of more than -17%. Shanghai is down a minor -0.2% at its open and heading for a 2023 loss of -6%. Singapore has opened up a minor +0.2% but is on track for a -4% 2023 fall. The S&P500 ended its Tuesday session up +0.6% and if that holds will book a +26% annual gain.
OIL UP AGAIN
Oil prices are +US$1 firmer from this time yesterday at just over US$74/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now under US$79.50/bbl.
GOLD FIRMS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2039/oz and and up +US$12 from this time yesterday.
NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is now at 62.6 USc and up almost +½c from this time yesterday. We started 2023 at 63.5 USc so a -1.4% net devaluation since then. Against the Aussie we are up +¼c at 92.7 AUc. We started 2023 at 93.2 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 57.1 euro cents after starting the year at 59.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 71.2 and actually little-changed from the 71.4 we started 2023 at. We fell sharply against the English pound (-6% but not a big TWI component), but rose sharply against the Yen (+8%) which is weighted much heavier.
BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price has slipped slightly to US$42,373 and down -0.6% from this time yesterday but marginally lower than this morning. There's been modest volatility over the past 24 hours of just on +/- 1.9%.
OUR HOLIDAY SCHEDULE
Please note this is the final 4pm Review for 2023. After today we will publish our content at a lesser intensity, more focused on holiday reads, reviews, and catch-ups. We will still have a morning edition for most business days and that will cover any local items. The advertising that powers much of our sustainability is already on holiday-mode, so this is when we really appreciate the vital support of readers. If you can support us during this commercially fragile time till the end of January, the team at interest.co.nz will be very appreciative.
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30 Comments
Revolut New Zealand customers can now buy and sell cryptocurrencies from within the Revolut app.
To make it clear, you will not be purchasing crypto at exchange spot prices. Assuming Revolut buys off market makers. I remember buying some crypto via EasyCrypto (very rare for me) and it appeared that it was being bought via Binance as I followed the transaction through a tracker.
[Senator] Warren is now accusing the crypto industry of spending vast sums building an army of former defense and law enforcement officials to lobby against new rules shutting down crypto-financed terrorism. She says this revolving door boosts the crypto industry, but endangers national security.
It appears her bill was written by the largest banking lobby in the country.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/elizabeth-warren-cryptocurrenc…
If she was really concerned with National Security, she would be better reading this thesis:
"Softwar: A Novel Theory on Power Projection and the National Strategic Significance of Bitcoin".
Written this year by United States Space Force Major Jason Lowrey from MIT. I recommend checking this out.
"Utilizing a grounded theory methodology, the author combines different concepts from diverse fields of
knowledge (e.g. biology, psychology, anthropology, political science, computer science, systems security,
and modern military strategic theory) to formulate a novel framework called “Power Projection Theory.”
Based on the core concepts of Power Projection Theory, the author inductively reasons that proof-of-
work technologies like Bitcoin could not only function as monetary technology, but could also (and
perhaps more importantly) function as a new form of electro-cyber power projection technology which
could empower nations to secure their most precious bits of information (including but not limited to
financial bits of information) against belligerent actors by giving them the ability to impose severe physical
costs on other nations in, from, and through cyberspace. The author calls this novel power projection
tactic “softwar” and explores its potential impact on national strategic security in the 21st century."
Re todays mini budget, It was a really bad look having landlords tax relief at April 2023 and workers tax relief at July 2024. This 'problem' they now have with the books in worse shape could be a blessing for National, Act may not get their landlord tax relief ahead of Nationals 'squeezed middle workers'.
They are a becoming a bit of a train crash tbh. Tax cuts for landlords are looking increasingly out of touch and dubious, they appear fiscally clueless and are tying themselves in knots with inconsistency (is it Kainga ora or not???).
Bishop is looking more like Muldoon everyday (literally and figuratively).
I noticed Luxon got a "Welcome to Country" today, he better not have spoken any Te reo, the gronk.
Thank god you lefties had 6 AMAZING years under Labour to steel you for the coming right apocalypse....
those 6 GREAT YEARS should carry you through a few tough years of national
The swarking is starting to piss me off, the majority of NZ said piss off, do it quietly with dignity
Isn't it funny how criticizing National makes you by default a Labour supporter. It's a weird flex though, if you're a supporter of National then wouldn't you rather hold them to account since you voted them in to represent you? Nah, IT Guy would rather lazily deflect their issues back onto "but Labour".
Would be like a group of shareholders giving the board a free pass to trade recklessly because the company down the road did the same, and any fellow shareholders that have a problem with it must own shares in that other company, therefore their comments are invalidated.
What a sad little comment.
With the emphasis on little.
As Cohen said, I'm neither left or right - I'm about human existentialism. In that light, this lot are yesterday's clowns.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifwtWF485HU (I saw it live in Chch, once).
https://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/leonardcohen/democracy.html
Used to be a lefty, left that behind long ago. As I said at the beginning of Labour's rule "...the prefects have taken over the staff room!." Inexperience, irresponsible rhetoric, and 2-legs-bad-4-legs-good thinking. Same with this lot, but it's more private school (maybe the other way round legs-wise?). Whatever, the rhetoric is still all about grievances, privilege and fuelled by inexperience.
Lets watch the next 100 days evolve. But the dangers of letting (very) junior partners manage the discourse around our national identity are frightening to me. The price of MMP? No... reads more like the price of desperation.
Have a good Christmas everyone.
The problem is that those in power, were schooled in a very different narrative (a false one - that economic growth was forever possible) in a very different time (while growth was still possible.
They are now out of their depth.
Google World3. Google Limits to Growth.
Labour were no better, nor are the current iteration of Greens. We need to be addressing a permanent de-growth future. We need to be intelligent enough to realise that is what is ahead.
go well
Essentially the foundations of modern society's psychology needs a fundamental shift, even independent of the energy perspective. That's just one facet of a deeply flawed shared philosophy.
But you don't usually get that sort of change without a gun, or a come-to-Jesus event.
And a new model that doesn't have everyone starve, or want to rip each other apart.
I see trees of green
Red roses too
No no no, the tax payer spent $4150 on Te Reo lessons for Luxon. Better not let that go to waste.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/505186/christopher-luxon-s-reo-mao…
The prime minister's office has confirmed his te reo Māori lessons when he was leader of the opposition cost about $4000.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon had this month criticised spending on bonuses for public servants who were proficient in the language, and also criticised spending on lessons in the public sector.
"What I'd just say to you is people are completely free to learn te reo themselves, that's what happens out there in the real world - out there in corporate life, or in any other community life across New Zealand," he said.
However, it later emerged he had received his own lessons in te reo Māori, which had been paid for by the opposition leader's budget, which is publicly funded.
Other National Party MPs also admitted to having lessons paid for by the taxpayer.
Luxon's office on Wednesday confirmed the cost of his lessons was $4150.
Just as well we're diffrunt to the Canucks.
The president of a large credit reporting agency says Canadians are having more difficulty meeting their debts amid higher borrowing costs and inflation.
Canadians are also relying more on credit cards to meet the cost of living, according to Hutchison, who has observed overall balances rising.
“Credit cards as a percentage of non-mortgage debt was about 40 per cent in Q3 last year. It's now 78 per cent, so total balances are growing,” she said.
“The other concern we have in that portfolio of debt is more and more Canadians are both missing payments, but also paying less, so paying their minimum payment versus paying the whole balance off.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/mortgage-delinquencies-credit-card-debts-ri…
Canada have the same mindless drones running their country into the ground
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-record-population-growth-1.7063…
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