A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; ANZ trims rates, consumer sentiment up, dairy prices rise, NZX50 changeout, ASB culls fees, swaps stable, NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
ANZ trimmed its two and three year fixed rate. Details here. That has resulted in ANZ offering the lowest carded rates for these two fixed terms among all the major bank.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ also trimmed three term deposit rates, although these are only for the 2, 4 and 5 year durations.

'A HINT OF CHRISTMAS CHEER'
The ANZ-Roy Morgan monthly consumer confidence survey posted a minor improvement in December although the level remains quite low by historical standards. It mirrors what Westpac's survey reported a few days ago. Today's ANZ survey recorded inflation expectations dropping to 3.9% from 4.6% in November, probably because of cheaper fuel prices. This is the first sub-4% result in three years. Those surveyed are not keen on buying a major household item at present.

DAIRY PRICES RISE
At today's dairy auction, prices in USD rose +2.3%. However WMP was up +2.9%, cheddar cheese was up 6.9% and butter was up +9.9%. All this is positive, however, the NZD also rose notably today, so prices are very little-changed in NZD terms. Farmers will be hoping dairy companies have got their fx hedging right. Westpac thinks they might have; they raised their forecast for the current season payout by +25c to 7.50/kgMS. This however just brings them in line with other analyst forecasts. We should also note that it is not usual for the final dairy auction of the year to reflect a rise; six of the previous eight years have brought declines in this final auction.

SENIOR ANZ NZ EXECUTIVES SWITCHING ROLES
ANZ NZ says Grant Knuckey, its Chief Risk Officer, and Ben Kelleher, its Managing Director of Personal Banking, will be swapping roles in April. CEO Antonia Watson says the switch is about creating greater skills across the bank's leadership team. Modern businesses require multi-skilled people with adaptable outlooks, she says. The switch is subject to the Reserve Bank confirming it has no objection.

NZX50 UPDATE, AN +$800 MLN BOOST
The NZX50 has been revised today with Synlait (SML, #50) and Pacific Edge (PEB, #48) moving out, and Gentrack (GTK) and Turners Automotive (TRA) moving in. But the two newbies are not going in at the bottom. Gentract goes in as #32 and Turners at #41. The capitalisation of the two new additions is significant; the two moving out had a combined capitalisation of $281 mln, whereas the two moving in have a combined capitalisation of $1.1 bln. Our NZX50 monitoring has been updated. (For those with long memories, Turners Automotive is actually a revised and reconstituted Dorchester Finance, a finance company that survived the GFC and acquired Turners in 2014.)

FEWER FEES
ASB says it is removing some transaction fees across its personal and business accounts, including fees on Visa Debit cards, staff assisted transactions, and the establishment of personal overdrafts. They say this will save customers $14 mln annually. (In the year to June, 2023, ASB's profit before tax was $2.167 bln. See page 10.)

CRYPTO VIA REVOLUT
Revolut New Zealand customers can now buy and sell cryptocurrencies from within the Revolut app. See here and here.

HOME DETENTION FOR TAX FRAUD
A Gisborne fisherman who ran Elohim Fishing has been sentenced to seven and a half months home detention and 100 hours community work on tax evasion charges. He was sentenced in the Gisborne District Court on 19 December on 3 representative charges of trying to evade GST, business, and personal income tax. The offending started just two years after Waikari was convicted for failing to file other income tax and GST returns.

MORE INTERVENTION CAPACITY
The RBNZ's foreign currency intervention capacity rose +$150 mln in November from October to now be at NZ$18.6 bln. Recall this was under $13 bln in June and $12.2 bln a year ago. That a +50% rise in a year.

GEOPOLITICAL TENSION SHRINKS TRADE
Japan's exports shrank in November when a small gain was expected. Data released today shows they fell -0.2% from the same month a year earlier mainly because China-bound chip shipments dived, underscoring worries that slowing overseas economies may deal another blow to the trade-reliant economy just as their domestic demand slows. At the same time imports dived significantly and that meant their trade deficit shrank rather quickly.

SWAPS HOLD
Wholesale swap rates may be little-changed today as the year winds down. However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.63% and now +13 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.08%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.65%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up also down -4 bps at 4.59%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.55% down -2 bps today. (Recall we started the year at 4.41%.) The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.92% and down -2 bps today. It started the year at 3.77%, fell to 3.30% in April before rising to 4.98% in October before retreating since The UST 2yr is now at 4.44% so that key curve inversion is still at -52 bps.

EQUITY WINNERS & LOSERS
The NZX50 is down -0.2% from yesterday near the close today. But we are essentially unchanged since the start of the year. The ASX200 is up another +0.6% from yesterday heading for a 2023 gain of +8.4%. Tokyo has opened up +1.6% from yesterday heading for an annual rise of more than +31%. Meanwhile Hong Kong has opened up +1.1% today but that won't touch the sides of an annual decline of more than -17%. Shanghai is down a minor -0.2% at its open and heading for a 2023 loss of -6%. Singapore has opened up a minor +0.2% but is on track for a -4% 2023 fall. The S&P500 ended its Tuesday session up +0.6% and if that holds will book a +26% annual gain.

OIL UP AGAIN
Oil prices are +US$1 firmer from this time yesterday at just over US$74/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now under US$79.50/bbl.

GOLD FIRMS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2039/oz and and up +US$12 from this time yesterday.

NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is now at 62.6 USc and up almost +½c from this time yesterday. We started 2023 at 63.5 USc so a -1.4% net devaluation since then. Against the Aussie we are up +¼c at 92.7 AUc. We started 2023 at 93.2 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 57.1 euro cents after starting the year at 59.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 71.2 and actually little-changed from the 71.4 we started 2023 at. We fell sharply against the English pound (-6% but not a big TWI component), but rose sharply against the Yen (+8%) which is weighted much heavier.

BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price has slipped slightly to US$42,373 and down -0.6% from this time yesterday but marginally lower than this morning. There's been modest volatility over the past 24 hours of just on +/- 1.9%.

OUR HOLIDAY SCHEDULE
Please note this is the final 4pm Review for 2023. After today we will publish our content at a lesser intensity, more focused on holiday reads, reviews, and catch-ups. We will still have a morning edition for most business days and that will cover any local items. The advertising that powers much of our sustainability is already on holiday-mode, so this is when we really appreciate the vital support of readers. If you can support us during this commercially fragile time till the end of January, the team at interest.co.nz will be very appreciative.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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