A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; Auckland house stock expands, yuan defended, nickel & lithium under pressure, swaps stable, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Unity Money trimmed its 2 year fixed home loan rate today and down to a level below all the main banks.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Unity Money raised its 9 and 12 month term deposit rate to 6.10%. Gold Bank Finance has reduced its 18 month rate from 8% to 7.25%.

WELLINGTON HOLIDAY
Remember today is a public holiday in Wellington.

HIGH LEVEL OF ADDITIONS TO AUCKLAND HOUSING STOCK
According to the latest Auckland Council data, more than 1900 new dwellings were completed in the Queen City for a third month in a row in November, extending the record run. To put these three months into perspective, data shows there were 9426 used homes listed at the start of September and 9502 listed at the end of November (realestate.co.nz). There were 5935 homes sold in the three months (REINZ). In this period, 5801 new dwellings were added to the regional market. This surge may explain why there is no demand overhang in this market so far. But retreating residential consent levels might change that in 2024.

DEFENDING THE YUAN IS JOB 1
China's Loan Prime Rates are unchanged, not a surprise given last week's unchanged MLF rate. The unchanged LPR rates are because their central bank is in a very tough position, having already prioritised keeping up the value of the yuan.. Lower interest rates would make it almost impossible to hold the yuan's value - and they are prepared to take the risk on economic expansion.

COMMODITY SPIRAL
The almost halving of the nickel price over the past year is causing a messy shakeout among miners in Western Australia (and globally in fact). Mines are closing and those running are loosing big money. High inventories and very weak demand from China are behind the retrenchments. Nickel is mainly used in making alloys such as stainless steel. Among other technical industrial applications, it is used in batteries as a "critical mineral", including rechargeable nickel-cadmium batteries and nickel-metal hydride batteries used in EV and hybrid vehicles. The lithium price has fallen even further and its miners are taking a cold bath too.

SWAPS HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will probably be little-changed today. However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.65%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.30%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.52%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 4.79%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.75% and unchanged from Friday. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.11% and down -6 bps from Saturday. The UST 2yr is at 4.39% and up +2 bps, so that inversion is now out to -28 bps.

EQUITY WINNERS & LOSERS
The NZX50 is up +0.2% in late trade today. The ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up yet another strong +1.4% in morning trade. But Hong Kong has opened down -0.8%. Shanghai has opened down -0.6%. And Singapore has opened up +0.2%. The S&P500 futures suggest the record high on Wall Street will get extended when it opens in New York tomorrow, perhaps up by +0.9%.

OIL SETTLES
Oil prices are down -50 USc from this morning at just on US$73/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$78/bbl.

GOLD ON HOLD
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2030/oz and up just +US$1 from where we opened this morning.

NZD FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The Kiwi dollar is now at 61.3 USc and up +20 bps from this morning's open. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally firmer at 56.2 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now just back over 70.

BITCOIN SLIPS SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price has eased down today to US$41,418 and down -0.4% from where we were opened this morning. There's been low volatility over the past 24 hours of just on +/- 0.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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