Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
ASB trimmed their 3, 4 and 5 year fixed rates. More here. NBS reduced its 2 year fixed rate by -36 bps.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB cut term deposit rates for all terms 18 months and longer. More here. ICBC raised its offers for terms 6 to 12 months.
WFH OK WITH EMPLOYERS DESPITE COOLING JOBS MARKET
Even as the New Zealand labour market has ‘cooled’, Seek says the number of job ads including opportunities to work from home has climbed higher
TAX TAKE UP
The Crown accounts for November show revenue doing better than forecast in the half-year update but worse than a year ago. The IRD collect $5.384 bln in November alone, a record high for any month. But the pace of GST collections is running -16% lower in the year to November compared to the same year in 2022 and that was its weakest in three years.
SETTLING IN A BETTER POSITION
Household net worth showed first gain since late 2021 as house prices recovered somewhat in Q3-2023. Net worth increased by a tiny +$5.3 bln in the September quarter to $2.3 tln, while the household savings rate remained steady at +1.4%. Prior to March 2019 household savings were persistently negative. During the pandemic they became strongly positive. They have settle down to modestly positive, at +$860 mln in Q3-2023 after being +$840 mln in Q2-2023. Since the pandemic it has been rare to have negative household savings in any quarter.
GOOD DEMAND, LOWER YIELDS
There was $500 mln offered in NZGBs today in three maturities. Overall $966 mln was offered in 96 bids and about half (48) were accepted. The April 2027 $250 mln went for a yield of 4.50% which was lower than the 4.79% achieved in the equivalent tender on December 7, 2023. The May 2034 $175 mln went for a yield of 4.76%, again lower than the last equivalent event on November 2 which achieved 5.35%. The $75 mln April 2037 tranche went for 4.93% yield , lower than the December 7 5.01% for that bond.
QUIET TIME
It is Auckland Anniversary Weekend coming up. Commercial activity is likely to be slow tomorrow in advance of the long weekend. Wellington institutions are likely to release disclosures into a relative vacuum of attention. Corporates may release 'bad news' for the same reason.
A STEADY EXPANSION
South Korea reported a GDP expansion of +2.2% in Q4-2023 over the same quarter a year ago. This was better than expected and the +1.4% rate in Q3-2023.
MOSTLY NOT BEING USED AS INTENDED
New analysis in Australia shows that most banknotes on issue are currently used for non-transactional purposes. Or for crime. Just like cryptos, traditional banknotes are now not being used for transactions. They are either being hoarded of if they are used for transactions, they are not legal ones. But a shrinking section of the community, including the unbanked, still need them for their intended, traditional use. The RBA analysis found up to 80% of cash is being hoarded, while up to 11% is in criminal hands.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates might be slightly higher again today. However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 5.66%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is little-changed at 4.26%. The China 10 year bond rate is also little-changed at 2.53%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is holding at 4.83%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.75% and up +2 bps from yesterday. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.17% and up +3 bps from yesterday. The UST 2yr is at 4.38% and up +4 bps, so that key inversion is now little-changed at -21 bps.
EQUITY WINNERS & LOSERS
The NZX50 is little-changed in late trade today, but on the 'minus' side. The ASX200 is also little-changed in afternoon trade, but on the 'plus' side. Tokyo is down -0.4% in morning trade. Hong Kong is little-changed in early trade after yesterday's very large rise. Shanghai is up +0.7% at its open on positive sentiment. Singapore has opened down -0.3%. In New York, the S&P500 ended its Wednesday session little-changed, giving up an earlier +0.7% rise.
OIL HOLDS
Oil prices are holding at just over US$75/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$80/bbl.
GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2015 and down -US$13 from this time yesterday. It closed earlier in London at US$2023/oz.
NZD RECOVERS FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is now just on 61.1 USc and marginally higher than this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are back up +20 bps to 93 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 56.2 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at just over 70.1 and up almost +20 bps.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price has moved up today to US$40,048 but only a minor gain of +0.3% from where we were this time yesterday. There's been modest volatility over the past 24 hours of just on +/- 1.3%.
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