Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.
NZ PMI RECOVERS SOMEWHAT
The February factory PMI as reported by BNZ-Business NZ is on the improve. While not expanding yet, it has risen to be close. Helping are a rise in new orders, and helpful expansion in the labour market with a cooling of pressures.
NEW CHAIRMAN FOR BNZ
BNZ says Douglas McKay, chairman of its board, will retire on May 31. Warwick Hunt, who has been on the board since November 2022, will succeed McKay as chairman from June. Hunt is the former managing partner of PwC UK.
NZX50 UPDATES
We have updated the profiles for PFI (PFI, #26), Summerset (SUM, #18), and Vista Group (VGL, #46) to reflect their latest year-end financials.
CHINA COMES CALLING
Fresh from delighting his Indian hosts (and raising eyebrows in Canada), our Foreign Minister (Winston Peters) will host the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi in Wellington next week.
HOUSE PRICES FALL FASTER
China's house prices are falling a bit faster now according to official data. New house prices were down -1.4% from a year ago. In January the decline was -0.7%. Only seven of the 70 largest cities recorded any rise, all tiny, from a month ago. From a year ago only 13 showed rises. For resales, only two of those same 70 cities recorded a rise in February from January, none on a year-ago basis. The declines are probably sharper than being recorded officially due to very low demand.
RATE ON HOLD
China's one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate was unchanged at 2.5% in today's update.
OBJECTIVE NEWS REPORTING IS UP AGAINST IT
The squeeze is going on news reporting, being weaponised by governments. First there was Trump, now the Chinese Ministry of State Security has this. It ends with: "Treat advanced technology as the new productive force and combat capability of national security organs, press the fast-forward button on generating and releasing new quality combat capabilities, create strategic high grounds on the hidden front, and focus on improving the ability to use science and technology to maintain national security”. We are back to the 19th century robber-baron-owned news style, except states are now in there making things murky. Trump proves you can fool a lot of people a lot of the time. China raises that enormously. What chance 'fair and balanced'? let alone 'accuracy'.
HARD MINERAL RETREAT
Global steel and iron ore prices are falling rather quickly now. Steel (rebar) is down -2.7% over the past week, and iron ore is down -9.5% over the same timeframe. Since the start of the year the reductions at -11% and -24% respectively. The steel price is back to 2009 levels. These pullbacks directly relate to soft Chinese demand.
SWAP RATES FIRMER AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates have probably risen modestly today, again. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp today at 5.65%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +9 bps from yesterday at 4.16%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.35%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.74%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.69% and also up +2 bps from yesterday. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.29% and up +10 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2yr is now up to 4.69% and so that key inversion is back at -40 bps.
EQUITY (WINNERS ?) & LOSERS
Wall Street slipped again today with the S&P500 ending down -0.3% in its Thursday trade. Tokyo has also opened down -0.3% and heading for a -1.4% weekly retreat if that holds. Hong Kong is down -1.7% at its open and if that holds it will be up +1.6% for the week. Shanghai is down -0.3% heading for a weekly -0.4% dip. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. The ASX200 is down a sharp -1.3% in afternoon trade and heading for a -2.9% weekly drubbing. The NZX50 is down -0.7% in late trade and heading for a -1.7% fall.
OIL UP
Oil prices are +US$3 higher today at just over US$80.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just on US$85/bbl. Low US inventories are behind the gains.
GOLD SLIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$13 at US$2162/oz.
NZD EASES LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down a sharp -¾c from this time yesterday at 61 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are lower at 56.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now down to 70 today.
BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is a little lower at US$71,598 and down -1.7% from this this time yesterday. Volatility has been high at +/- 3.8% today.
Daily exchange rates
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Daily swap rates
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