Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.
NZ PMI RECOVERS SOMEWHAT
The February factory PMI as reported by BNZ-Business NZ is on the improve. While not expanding yet, it has risen to be close. Helping are a rise in new orders, and helpful expansion in the labour market with a cooling of pressures.
NEW CHAIRMAN FOR BNZ
BNZ says Douglas McKay, chairman of its board, will retire on May 31. Warwick Hunt, who has been on the board since November 2022, will succeed McKay as chairman from June. Hunt is the former managing partner of PwC UK.
NZX50 UPDATES
We have updated the profiles for PFI (PFI, #26), Summerset (SUM, #18), and Vista Group (VGL, #46) to reflect their latest year-end financials.
CHINA COMES CALLING
Fresh from delighting his Indian hosts (and raising eyebrows in Canada), our Foreign Minister (Winston Peters) will host the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi in Wellington next week.
HOUSE PRICES FALL FASTER
China's house prices are falling a bit faster now according to official data. New house prices were down -1.4% from a year ago. In January the decline was -0.7%. Only seven of the 70 largest cities recorded any rise, all tiny, from a month ago. From a year ago only 13 showed rises. For resales, only two of those same 70 cities recorded a rise in February from January, none on a year-ago basis. The declines are probably sharper than being recorded officially due to very low demand.
RATE ON HOLD
China's one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate was unchanged at 2.5% in today's update.
OBJECTIVE NEWS REPORTING IS UP AGAINST IT
The squeeze is going on news reporting, being weaponised by governments. First there was Trump, now the Chinese Ministry of State Security has this. It ends with: "Treat advanced technology as the new productive force and combat capability of national security organs, press the fast-forward button on generating and releasing new quality combat capabilities, create strategic high grounds on the hidden front, and focus on improving the ability to use science and technology to maintain national security”. We are back to the 19th century robber-baron-owned news style, except states are now in there making things murky. Trump proves you can fool a lot of people a lot of the time. China raises that enormously. What chance 'fair and balanced'? let alone 'accuracy'.
HARD MINERAL RETREAT
Global steel and iron ore prices are falling rather quickly now. Steel (rebar) is down -2.7% over the past week, and iron ore is down -9.5% over the same timeframe. Since the start of the year the reductions at -11% and -24% respectively. The steel price is back to 2009 levels. These pullbacks directly relate to soft Chinese demand.
SWAP RATES FIRMER AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates have probably risen modestly today, again. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp today at 5.65%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +9 bps from yesterday at 4.16%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.35%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.74%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.69% and also up +2 bps from yesterday. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.29% and up +10 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2yr is now up to 4.69% and so that key inversion is back at -40 bps.
EQUITY (WINNERS ?) & LOSERS
Wall Street slipped again today with the S&P500 ending down -0.3% in its Thursday trade. Tokyo has also opened down -0.3% and heading for a -1.4% weekly retreat if that holds. Hong Kong is down -1.7% at its open and if that holds it will be up +1.6% for the week. Shanghai is down -0.3% heading for a weekly -0.4% dip. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. The ASX200 is down a sharp -1.3% in afternoon trade and heading for a -2.9% weekly drubbing. The NZX50 is down -0.7% in late trade and heading for a -1.7% fall.
OIL UP
Oil prices are +US$3 higher today at just over US$80.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just on US$85/bbl. Low US inventories are behind the gains.
GOLD SLIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$13 at US$2162/oz.
NZD EASES LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down a sharp -¾c from this time yesterday at 61 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are lower at 56.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now down to 70 today.
BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is a little lower at US$71,598 and down -1.7% from this this time yesterday. Volatility has been high at +/- 3.8% today.
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30 Comments
Bear Market Definition: a decline of 20% or more of a major stock market index, for a sustained period.
HouseMouse | 15th Mar 24, 1:55pm
‘Hands up if you think I’m a muppet'
Umm, well let's just say its not a bear market
Yes. You can go even further back...to 1953 say
https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB435/docs/Doc%202%20-%201954-00-…
Edit: I don't support or oppose any party here. Just showing that this is realpolitik and this is nothing new.
Cannot deny the bloke has stamina. How else could you every day get up and carry on with the mountain of litigation and affairs on your shoulders. Of course that’s the grand plan. Once president again one can absolve oneself from all of it. Said it before Trump is resolved to determine whether or not the world needs the USA more than vice versa.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/511793/tvnz-job-cuts-public-asked-t…
Gee
where can i sign up?
The guardians of democracy
Honestly what muppets
China's house prices are falling a bit faster now according to official data. New house prices were down -1.4% from a year ago
Important to see that the high growth era was due to bank credit creation for business investment, also in Japan. But when u switch to bank credit creation for asset purchases you get asset inflation, banking problems & low growth https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/339271/ Link
Global steel and iron ore prices are falling rather quickly now. Steel (rebar) is down -2.7% over the past week, and iron ore is down -9.5% over the same timeframe. Since the start of the year the reductions at -11% and -24% respectively. The steel price is back to 2009 levels. These pullbacks directly relate to soft Chinese demand.
Smart to be paying attention to this. I got out of Fortescue in 2019 after 8 years of not much joy. Share price is up 263% since. And div yield of 8.4%. Go figure. I cannot explain it.
Forty's stock price down 14% in past month and 17% for the year.
The bitcoin price is a little lower at US$71,598 and down -1.7% from this this time yesterday. Volatility has been high at +/- 3.8% today.
Biggest dump in ratty for a while happening down. Seen price down as much as -7% in past 24 hours. Dragging all the alts with it.
Bloomie talking about 'rational exuberance' in the gold markets. Power shifting from West to East.
Physical exports of gold to China from Switzerland nearly trebled in January, according to the Swiss Federal Customs Administration. That points to Chinese individuals looking for a haven in the most ancient form of financial security following a rocky period for the country's real estate and equity markets.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-14/gold-s-record-set…
Exclusive: Trump launched CIA covert influence operation against China
FBI started spying on the Trump campaign after foreign governments "by chance" discovered evidence that his advisors were colluding with the Russians, the government says. But now, multiple credible sources tell us that the CIA asked foreign allies to spy on 26 Trump associates. Link
Passing laws under urgency is known to produce bad laws that don't stand the test of time, but I would expect the government would at least read what they are voting into law...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/government-mps-accidentally-cut-…
Everything wrong with NZ councils & government, planning regs, building regs & RMA in one article.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/ldr/511839/tiny-home-compliance-nightmare-co…
These people need to be forced to watch every series of the USAs " Building off the grid".
To be fair you cannot put down a flood and a sewage hazard with such poor foundation connections that it can cause real harm to anyone even visiting or doing service work there. Like Poe's pendulum with cyclic death or any faulty bridge connection even minor wear over time should not result in a deadly health hazard.
Also not planning for adequate modern septic services and expecting the old system of dumping sewage anywhere into any water course or table is not going to cut it. That is not a tiny home she has but an actual full sized home. Calling it tiny to avoid basic sewage and service requirements is just a cop out and lie.
On top of that expecting they could start using any entrance onto the highway without adequate ground work support could very much create a safety issue with visibility, cause damage to the highway and cause maintenance issues (because it never is just a honda but also any trades, visitors, truck deliveries, emergency services etc etc).
It rather sounds like the original plan was ignorant of simple structural engineering details and thought they could flag most the regs that protect lives and prevent water health hazards. It may sound great at first but if you were in that original designed tiny house when a flood or a quake hit you would very much not remain in it while it has poor foundations and goes on a ride or for that matter when the sewage issues enters the water table for your vege patch.
The need to raise the building on the foundations is not adequately explained but in flood prone areas that is often done to protect and save lives. Even the wind has been known to move massive buildings and not having any plans for that or adequate foundations for fixed sewage services is just plain willfully ignorant at best.
Checks the op for the building oh they were willfully ignorant and were trying to skip out on paying for basic minimum sewage management and live in a flood hazard. Well all's well and ends well they have a home that is less of health hazard to other people who may not be able to make an informed decision when called to do work on the site (like her eventual support workers).
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