A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; rents rise, per capita activity slips, GHGs fall (slightly), strong NZGB demand, scrum screwed, swaps jump, NZD eases, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Nothing to report today - so far at least.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Nothing here either.

PRICEY RENTS
The national median rent was up by +$40 a week in the year to February to $600/week. The biggest surge in rents came in Gisborne which is now one of the most expensive regions in which to rent a home, now averaging $620/week and nor far off Auckland's $650/week or Wellington's $640/week.

NOT GREAT ON A PER CAPITA BASIS
ANZ's truckometer monitoring shows the Light Traffic Index rose +0.1% in March from February to be +2.8% higher than year-ago levels, while the Heavy Traffic Index fell -1.8% from the prior month after a couple of strong months, and it is +3.0% higher than year-ago levels. They noted that while both indices each have a mild upward trend, in per capita terms light traffic is trending down while heavy traffic is pretty flat.

THERE ARE THOSE WHO DO, AND THOSE WHO JUST TALK
Updated data out today for Q4-2024 shows that the commercial service sector, the rural sector, manufacturing, the transport sector, and the utilities sector (electricity, water, gas, etc.) all decreased their greenhouse gas emissions from the prior quarter. The construction sector has no change. But all these gains were nearly wasted because the large household sector increased its emissions. Overall, greenhouse gas emissions rose +2.9% from the same quarter a year ago. Interestingly only two sectors are cutting these emissions on a year-ago basis - the rural sector and service sector. The Household sector is making no progress quarter-on-quarter or year-on-year (even though representatives from this sector complain loudly about the rural sector).

STRONG DEMAND
Today's NZGB tenders drew 83 bids worth $1.18 bln for the three offers totalling $500 mln. That leaves $677 mln unsatisfied looking for a home. Yields were higher by about +20 bps for the two main tranches, but slightly lower for the May 2051 $50 mln portion, dropping to 5.04% from the 5.08% at the same equivalent offer eight weeks ago.

EMPLOYEE COMPENSATION SHARE HITS NEW HIGH
The extended national accounts data for Q4-2023 has confirmed the rise and rise of the share "compensation of employees" has of GDP. It rose to over 45%, the first time it has been at that level ever (or since these records began in 1972).(The low point in this series is 2001 when the share was 38.1%.)

VOLUME DROP
Kiwibank said its card activity analysis reveals a contraction of -7% in the March quarter, year-on-year up +4%. However, the volume of spend however reveals "a bleaker truth", they say. The total number of transactions shrank, down -4% in the quarter, up only +0.3% for the year. And that was despite a fast-rising population.

SCREWING THE SCRUM
The Government has capitulated to the landlord lobby, giving them all they asked for in rolling back tenant protections. The Government is now no longer an 'honest' referee between tenants and landlords in the property 'game'.

CAN YOU SUPPORT US?
If you missed our appeal for support on Tuesday, can you action it today? We want all our resources to be available free for all, but this can only be sustained if those who can, support us. (You choose the amount, reflecting our value to you.)

ASIC HAVING TRANS-TASMAN DERIVATIVES TRADER PROSPERO WOUND UP
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission says Australia's Federal Court has ordered Prospero Markets Pty Ltd be wound up with liquidators appointed following an application by ASIC. ASIC says it has received enquiries from clients concerned about the return of their money. In New Zealand the Financial Markets Authority warned in March NZ-registered company Prospero Markets Company Ltd, which trades as Prospero Markets, was offering New Zealanders financial services including CFD trading services while not registered, noting it wasn't on the Financial Service Provider Register and doesn't hold any license to provide its services. The FMA recommended "caution when dealing with Prospero Markets." The Companies Office registration for Prospero Markets Company Ltd now notes; "This company is now overdue in its obligation to file an annual return. If the annual return is not filed immediately the Registrar will initiate action to remove the company from the register." NZ Companies Office filings list Shengyin Wang as shareholder and director, noting Wang, of Victoria, is also a director of Prospero Markets Pty Ltd.

CHINA CPI FLIRTS WITH DEFLATION
China's consumer prices edged up a meree +0.1% in March from a year ago and much less that the market forecasts of +0.4%, and after an annual +0.7% rise in February. The extended flirting with deflation is dangerous and highlights the economic challenges they face. Demand is actually quite weak - and this data all comes from the officially approved series.

CHINA PPI IN FULL DEFLATION STILL
Meanwhile, China's producer prices shrank by -2.8% in March from the same month a year ago. This was the expected drop and compares to February's drop of -2.7%. It was the 18th straight month of contraction in factory gate prices and the steepest decrease since last November, highlighting the persistence of deflationary forces in their economy.

SWAP RATES LEAP
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be very much higher today after the US CPI miss. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 5.64%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +15 bps at 4.28%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at just on 2.31%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +12 bps from this time yesterday at 4.87% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.81% and up +8 bps. The UST 10yr yield is up +17 bps from this time yesterday to 4.53%. Their 2yr is up +21 bps at 4.95%, so the curve is now more inverted by -42 bps.

EQUITIES ALMOST ALL LOWER
In late trade today, the NZX50 is down -0.8% in late trade. The ASX200 is down -0.5% in early afternoon trade. Tokyo has started its Thursday session down -0.5%. Hong Kong has started today down -0.9%, but Shanghai has opened up +0.4% in an unusual divergence from world markets although that recovers some of yesterdays drop. Singapore is down -0.6% today. The S&P500 fell almost -1% in its Wednesday Wall Street session, hurt by sharply rising yields.

OIL PRICES RISE
Oil prices have risen +US$1.50 to just under US$86/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$90/bbl.

GOLD EASES
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$9 from this time yesterday at US$2341/oz.

NZD EASES
The Kiwi dollar has fallen nearly -1c to 59.8 USc post the US CPI decision. Against the Aussie we are a touch firmer at 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are softer at just under 55.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now down to 69.2.

BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price has risen today to US$70,654 and up +2.3% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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