A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; a main bank trims TD rates, agent commissions stable, tractor sales very low, Tower's prospects improve, swaps hold, NZD firmish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Nothing to report again today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB trimmed two key rates today. An analysis of falling retail rates while wholesales rate rise, is here.

BILLION+ TICKET CLIP
Real estate agencies' commission revenues were flat for each of the last four quarters to the end of March, taking in $1.6 bln bln in that annual period, updated analysis shows.

$900 MLN MISSES OUT, LOOKING FOR A HOME
The latest NZGB tender drew 81 bids worth $1.4 bln for the $500 mln available in three tranches. The May 2030 $275 mln went for a yield of 4.73%, up +35 bps from the prior equivalent event 11 weeks ago. The May 2032 $175 mln went for 4.82% pa yield, up +10 bps from the prior event one week ago. And the May 2051 $50 mln went for a yield of 5.16% pa, up +12 bps from one week ago.

FARMERS' WALLETS CLOSING
New registration data for tractors shows that March 2024 had the lowest level for a March month (excluding pandemic-affected March 2020) since 2010, at just 164 nationwide.

'ENHANCED TRADING'
Fonterra has teamed up with Sharesies to offer its farmer/owners a new way to trade Fonterra FCG shares among themselves on the Sharesies platform and app. It will replace the NZX facility currently being used. The new platform is claimed to be easier, cheaper, and comes with more options and flexibility..

DIA ACCEPTS ENFORCEABLE UNDERTAKING FROM ACCOUNTING FIRM & DIRECTOR/SHAREHOLDER
Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act supervisor the Department of Internal Affairs (DIA), has accepted an enforceable, written undertaking agreement from ABC Accounting Services following a breach of the AML/CFT Act. The DIA says Alex Bob Cijffers, the sole director, shareholder and AML/CFT compliance officer of ABC, and ABC "will not carry out certain specified business activities," including; acting as a formation agent of companies, acting as a nominee director or nominee shareholder and providing registered office, business address or correspondence address services for a legal person. The DIA says ABC’s continued non-compliance with the AML/CFT Act, especially its failure to establish an effective compliance programme, led to a DIA investigation resulting in the enforceable undertaking. The DIA doesn't assert that Cijffers or ABC were engaging in money laundering or the financing of terrorism. Cijffers has previously featured in interest.co.nz articles as a provider of NZ company formation and financial service provider registration services to overseas entities.

START QUICKER?, BUT MORE TIME TO GET IT DONE
The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years. The goal is to clear away regulatory impediments to get much of the stalled and required work started quicker.

TOWER’S NET PROFIT UPGRADE
General insurer Tower told the New Zealand Stock Exchange on Wednesday that its full-year underlying net profit is now expected to be greater than $35 million. This is the second time this year that Tower has hiked its net profit guidance, having already told the market in mid-February that it expected its full net-year profit to “be at the upper end of or exceed” of its previously advised range of $22m-$27m. “This updated guidance assumes full utilisation of the FY24 large events allowance which is conservatively set at $45m. No large events have been recorded in the financial year to date,” the company said. Tower is going to provide further details on its performance at its half-year results in May. In a research report from wealth management firm Forsyth Barr on Thursday, analysts James Lindsay and Will Twiss said “pleasingly, both upgrades have been driven by improved operational performance in the business”. They said two key drivers of improved performance have been lower-than-expected business as-usual claims and stronger-than-anticipated gross written premium (GWP) growth because of favourable retention.

JOBLESS RATE RISES MODESTLY BUT STILL LOW
Australia's jobless rate ticked higher to 3.8% in March from February’s five-month low of 3.7% but below analysts expectations of 3.9%. The number of unemployed individuals increased by +20,600 to 569,900 while total employment fell -6,600 to 14.3 mln. Those looking for full-time jobs rose +19,300 to 371,300 and those looking for part-time work rose by +1,300 to 198,600. There are now 9.9 mln people in full-time work, up +27,900, and 4.4 mln people in part-time work, down -34,500. Part-time roles make up 31.1% of their employed workforce. Their participation rate slipped to 66.6%. (The updated New Zealand jobless rate for March will be released on May 1. As at December it was 4.0%.)

TONGA REDUX
We should keep a close eye on the Mount Ruang, Indonesia volcanic eruption in the past 24 hours. It has been enormous and will affect the upper atmosphere, with a good chance it will modify our weather for years. More here. And remember this.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed today. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is little-changed at 5.65%, a level it has hovered around for 30+ days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is back down -6 bps at 4.36%. The China 10 year bond rate is still at 2.27% and an all-time low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -7 bps to 4.97% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.92% and down -5 bps. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 4.58%. Their 2yr is down -6 bps at 4.92%, so the curve is now -34 bps and marginally deeper.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
But the NZX50 is heading to a -0.7% retreat near the close of trading. The ASX200 was up +0.6% in early afternoon trade. Tokyo opened its Thursday trade up +0.3%. Hong Kong opened today up +1.3%. Shanghai is up +0.6% at its open. Singapore opened up +1.2%. All this comes after Wall Street closed its Wednesday session with the S&P500 down -0.6%.

OIL FALLS FURTHER
Oil prices have fallen back another -US$2 to just on US$82.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$87/bbl.

GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$11 from yesterday, now at US$2373/oz.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar has recovered slightly from this time yesterday to 59.2 USc and up +20 bps. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 55.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 69 in a less-than +10 bps gain.

BITCOIN FALLS
The bitcoin price has fallen today from this time yesterday, now down to US$62,029 and a -3.3% net retreat. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been very high at just under +/- 4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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