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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; oceans warmest, tax fraud punished with wet noodles, property investors return for residential, scarce for commercial, swaps unchanged, NZD slips, & more

Economy / news
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; oceans warmest, tax fraud punished with wet noodles, property investors return for residential, scarce for commercial, swaps unchanged, NZD slips, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank lowered its term deposit rates for all terms of 2 years and longer. Their more popular shorter terms have been left unchanged however. All rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A 1°C RISE IN 42 YEARS IS A 'HEATWAVE'
Stats NZ says between 2022 and 2023, our oceanic and coastal waters reached their warmest annual temperatures since the series began in 1982. The have maps in their release with the highest increases shaded dark red. They say since 1982, sea-surface temperatures increased between +0.63°C to +1.05°C across our local oceanic regions, with the Tasman Sea having the highest rise. The Chathams had the biggest ocean anomaly, rising to 14.2°C. The southern South Island had the biggest coastal anomaly rising to 13.6°C. They say the overall +1°C rise over 40 years is an oceanic heatwave. What will they say when it gets to +2°C? Boiling?

TAX FRAUD GETS WFH 'DETENTION' I
An Auckland woman who tried to get nearly $60,000 in COVID relief money was sentenced to 11 months home detention when she appeared for sentence this month. Samantha Paul applied for Small Business Cashflow scheme loans (SBCS) for three unrelated taxpayers, one for her own company, and one in her own name, when she knew she was not entitled to any of the money.

TAX FRAUD GETS WFH 'DETENTION' II
An Upper Hutt man was sentenced to a year’s home detention for tax fraud. Keith Thomas Jaques ran various food vending businesses over the years, mainly selling donuts, coffee and churros at sporting and cultural events. The business operated between Wellington and Auckland and included events at large stadiums such as: Wellington Stadium, Mount Smart Stadium, Auckland and FMG Stadium in Hamilton.

TAX FRAUD GETS COMMUNITY 'DETENTION'
A Northland man was sentenced to community detention on tax fraud charges when he appeared in court this month. William Robert Eskdale pleaded guilty to 28 charges and appeared in the Whangarei District Court where he was sentenced to 4 months community detention with 100 hours community work.

INVESTORS RETURN?
Updated data for new lending in May (C70) shows that 25% of all new residential lending went to property investors, the biggest share since April 2021, and the most volume since December 2021.

BANKS WARY
The same updated data for new lending in May (C70) shows new lending for commercial property (investment, commercial development, residential development) has gone the other way, sinking to 24%, far below the peak 42% of new business lending in July 2021.

DAIRY FARMERS GET IN EARLIER
For many years, the peak in new lending to dairy farmers came in June each year. But updated data for new lending in May (C70) suggests that peak has arrived a month earlier this year, and below the levels of the past two annual peaks. If May really is the peak in 2024, it will be -20% lower than 2023, and -11% lower than in 2022.

EYES ON RBNZ
Financial markets are awaiting tomorrow's RBNZ Monetary Policy Review. We will have full coverage. See our preview here. All forecasting economists and the financial markets expect the RBNZ to remain on hold. Markets will be watching for any shift in guidance. If there is a neutral no-change guidance, the 2yr swap rate could rise about +3 bps due to positioning, speculating on a dovish shift. If there is a dovish shift, the 2yr swap rate could fall -10 bps or more in response.

UNRECOVERED
In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey index fell in July from June. That leaves it broadly in line with the very low levels that started in July 2022. Pre-pandemic these levels were generally +20% higher. So far their 'stage 3' tax cuts have done little to improve sentiment. The biggest declines were among middle income earners, Victorians, and hospitality and construction workers. About 60% of those surveyed now expect the RBA to raise its policy rate, a big rise from 41% expecting that in the June survey.

INDIA TO RISE, CHINA TO FADE
India is about to overtake China as the top driver of global food demand over the next decade, according to recent estimates from the FAO. Southeast Asian nations are on the rise too. The fading of China, due in part to demographic shifts and an about-to-fall population, is a key global trend.

SWAP RATES NOT DOING MUCH
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed again today and ahead of tomorrow's MPR from the RBNZ. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.60%, a level it has hovered around for 125 days now. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps from this time yesterday at 4.38%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 2.29%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.68% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.65% and unchanged from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps from yesterday at 4.27%. Their 2yr is now at 4.63%, so the curve is more inverted, now by -36 bps.

EQUITIES MOSTLY POSITIVE, EXCEPT HONG KONG
The NZX50 is up +0.2% from yesterday in late trade. And the ASX200 is up +0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.5% at its open, the best of the markets we follow and again pushing new all-time highs. Hong Kong is down -0.4%, and Shanghai is little-changed to open their day's trading. Singapore is up +0.3%. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 up an insignificant +0.1%.

OIL SOFTISH
The oil price is down another -50 USc at US$81.50/bbl in the US, and at just over US$85/bbl for the international Brent price.

GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$19 from yesterday at US$2364/oz.

NZD SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down about -¼c from this time yesterday, now at 61.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down a bit less at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -¼c at 56.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under at 70.4.

BITCOIN BOUNCES BACK
The bitcoin price has bounced back a bit, now at US$57,199 and up +3.5% from yesterday's low. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.0%.

AND IN CASE YOU WERE WONDERING
There are now less than 160 days until the end-of-year Christmas break.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA
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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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40 Comments

They say the overall +1°C rise over 40 years is an oceanic heatwave. What will they say when it gets to +2°C? Boiling?

David! You've been doing so well... The issue is thermal expansion, reduced oxygenation, additional ice melting, the die off of species suited to narrow temperature ranges, and the impact of that on the wider food chain and ecosystem etc. Not to mention the incredible amount of energy required to heat the ocean by 1 degree - and what happens when some of that energy is released to power devastating weather systems.  

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DC - have you any idea how much heat-energy is required to raise that mass of water one degree? 

I've sailed the oceans - 18 days to Tahiti, 18 more to Hawaii, 13 to Tonga, 3 to the Auckland Islands, up and down the coast many times - there's a humungous volume of water. To raise it a degree - or more - is astounding. Not over a few hundred years, perhaps, but within a small portion of one human lifetime? 

Perception. 

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PDK, whether or not you’ve sailed the oceans is irrelevant to the question you’ve posed (and not answered).

The amount of energy required is Q = m * c * ΔT, where: Q is the requisite energy, m is the mass of the water, c is the specific heat capacity of water (which is around 3.93 kJ/kg/°C for sea water, depending on the salinity), and ΔT is the change in temperature in degrees Celsius (1 degree in this case). And even if you hadn’t sailed the oceans, the formula would still be the same.

More importantly, though: it doesn’t matter what the Q value is. It is just as irrelevant as whether you’ve sailed the oceans or not, or for how many days you did so.

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I am familiar with the math - was trying to impart the massiveness of the volume involved, to one/ones perhaps not so good at visualising.

Science communication..... 

:)

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This much? That pesky pre WW2 warming ruining all the anthro CO2 theories.

"The total Ocean Heat Content (OHC) change since 1871 is estimated at 436 +/-91 x 1021J, with an increase during 1921–1946 (145 +/-62 x 1021 J) that is as large as during 1990–2015. By comparing with direct estimates, we also infer that, during 1955–2017, up to one-half of the Atlantic Ocean warming and thermosteric sea-level rise at low latitudes to midlatitudes emerged due to heat convergence from changes in ocean transport.

...The reconstructed OHC increase during 1921–1946 (145 62 ZJ) is comparable with change estimated during 1990–2015 (153 44 ZJ)."

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1808838115

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What point are you making? Feels odd to miss out the frankly terrifying conclusions from the paper you are quoting (below)

... the substantial amounts of heat accumulated in the ocean [from anthropogenic climate change] and associated sea-level rise can be influenced by ocean circulation changes and low- to midlatitude air–sea interactions. Changes in wind and air–sea fluxes, including those due to cloud feedbacks, may play an increasing role under anthropogenic climate change as suggested by the shape of passive OHC trends in the Atlantic during 1871–1955 versus 1955–2017 (Fig. 3 and SI Appendix, Fig. S4). Future changes in ocean transport could have severe consequences for regional sea-level rise and the risk of coastal flooding. Monitoring and understanding OHC change and the role of circulation in shaping the patterns of warming remain key to predicting global and regional climate change and sea-level rise.

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Given we are lousy at modelling clouds, geothermal, volcanic, ocean circulation etc. and we don't know what caused similar warming pre WW2 why on earth would you be terrified? Wait till you learn about meltwater pulses and Dansgaard- Oeschger events! Perhaps don't - you do come across as rather delicate and I wouldn't want you wetting the bed.

 

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Uhh the old chestnut "wait till you hear about these events that happened when there were like a million people worldwide! Civilization didn't collapse then, so with 8 billion people now we will be fine!". Profiles logic fails are so out there its hard to even see how he can arrive at such conclusions.

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Au Contraire! An D-O event with 15 degrees warming in a decade would be as devastating for us as it was for our ancestors. Count yourself lucky you live in such a benign climate today.

"One of the most famous examples of abrupt climate changes observed in the paleoclimatic record are the Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events. The climate record of the Last Glacial Period (LGP), which spanned approximately 120 to 11 kiloyears before year 2000 (kyr b2k), is measured in the ice-cores of the Greenland ice sheet and marked by distinct and abrupt transitions between colder stadial and warmer interstadial periods [1]. These climatic changes are known as D–O events, and occurred about 24 times in the LGP. The D–O events correspond to approximately 10–15 Kelvin of warming in Greenland over the course of a few decades, with subsequently incremental cooling to the fully glacial conditions of the stadial"

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167278924001660

 

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Sure they may be. Should we encourage another one then by hugely messing with our climate? 

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I can't take people seriously who knowingly select misleading quotes from a scientific paper that reaches the opposite conclusion to the one they're making. You're an agent of disinformation.

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Remember he gets paid to post this stuff. 

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LOL! Terrified Jfoe inserts the phrase [from anthropogenic climate change] into the authors concluding remarks then accuses fellow commenters of disinformation!

I posted calculations on increases in OHC pre and post WW2 that are remarkably similar. The author concluded we need better understanding (read final sentence you pasted) on the role of circulation - and cloud feedbacks further up. We have a very poor understanding of cloud modelling/feedbacks and can't explain the pre WW2 warming rate  - these are inconvenient facts for the climate change industry, not some woke made up term "disinformation".

Feel free to edit your post and take out your inserted phrase from the authors concluding remarks. 

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The really interesting bit is if the response that is heating the ocean is delayed by decades then what humans are doing now as a counterpoint to help prepare for the future heating debt and what can we do that will have significant effects in the already existing level of heating to come. Admittedly there is some minor benefits for a few species by the heating & deep water is less affected (may actually experience a boost in resources), however for most they will be negatively affected. So long term what are we doing in both conservation & species management, what are we doing about sustainable harvesting etc... or do we as a whole simply rename all the industry that is more then decimating the stock as cultural and research to speed up the process of large scale extinctions. Now NZ cannot set up a new marine reserve far out of reach of most kiwis to save anything and our weight with international Asia Pacific nations that come by our waters is pitiful at best, but neighboring countries can and have been doing more which is interesting to take note of. 

Meanwhile there are avenues to make sourcing food and resources more efficient and with less harm to the ecological systems overall. If only we also had a better use as well for all those large kina as well. :)

On the subject of weather resilience NZ long stopped developing & maintaining much of the basic infrastructure for living (see our water, & power systems that were so past the use by date decades and deaths have occurred since) and most resilience based infrastructure was so poorly maintained that failures were inevitable. We introduced more high risk dangerous conditions, e.g. forestry slash & building & storing more by key waterways and in known floodplains, with no consideration for downstream effects including the effects on the ocean ecosystems at the end. We have no large scale investment in township resilience for even surviving past large scale flooding & storms (the original infrastructure was built for but at much lower tech levels). We have photographic footage still from more then half a century ago of flooding & other events 10 times worse then what we have experienced in recent past, yet even with that knowledge we did nothing after the degradation of key skills.

It was just always assumed at the time social mobility would be much easier and people could afford new homes even if they walked away from old ones with nothing and move to more resilient areas. We have in many ways completely ignored and let infrastructure & the skills to maintain it degrade and so we have crumbling essential services. At least the military still exists as for over 60 years it has been a key participant in many civil defense & large scale disasters but even their tools & transport is poor at best. If anything if we cannot even get our councils to focus on essential infrastructure & our power systems for public use are designed to be highly susceptible to weather & theft what chances do we have in them looking beyond to larger weather resilience systems to respond to things that have less frequent occurrence then everyday. We saw how it played out in Auckland, Wellington, Hawke's Bay, Otago, Christchurch etc. Every single council is willing to chance it by not preparing and doing silly mistakes (e.g. like putting pump power systems below most ground level so water will shut down the pumps). If we were always going to experience more events, and in future with higher frequency, it pays in the billions (for each event) to be spending hundreds of millions in preparation for most of them adequately.

NZ has even worse preparation for key community areas then most the OECD. Lets not kid ourselves each disaster or crisis storm is one we willingly did nothing to prepare for and may have intentionally defunded basic infrastructure so failures will occur that have severe effects. Every time you see communities scrambling for generators, fuel, water, medical care & being left with a clean up or property destruction they cannot afford that is one we could have planned better for locally. Yet sadly we rely on the direction by council staff more then the councils themselves, and neither of which are very practical in their approach for even preparing for typical weather & service use. Yet we get our music festivals we like so much more then being safe from danger & destruction, we got many projects that have less priority and effect, we even canned waterway maintenance to fund more social vote buying avenues. All because who votes for ground infrastructure they often cannot see. 

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Frank Knight reckons "a vast $90 trillion wealth transfer over the next 20 years will likely make millennials “the richest generation in history" and “the millennials are very ill prepared to handle this wealth". 

Happy days or patronizing boomer lecturing? It's important to remember taxes and interest will likely swallow much of that (and assuming no reverse mortgages and fiat currencies being decimated in terms of spending power). 

I reckon that if you removed the top 5-10% of wealthy families, the numbers probably look quite different.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/01/millennials-are-ill-prepared-to-be-the-…

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I think there will be a resurgence in discussion about inheritance taxes around the world over the coming decade.

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People will gift wealth or pass it on earlier then death....  or put it into enduring trusts...     so many ways to avoid inheritance tax. 

 

 

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...including leaving a country for a more enlightened abode

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I hope so

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That is why gift taxes and inheritance taxes often go hand in hand

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Just checked migration stats today. Net 888 arrivals in June. For the year to end of June, 57,500 net arrivals. Net migration has been 2,000 for the last 9 months. Though July/September are often larger inward migration months.

For reference: this time last year, yearly net migration was over 150,000 and 9mo net migration was over 110,000.

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Housing shortage is going to be solved real quickly. Imagine once the tradies start leaving.

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What housing shortage?

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The one the media keep telling us about. 

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Be Quick.....

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What data is this?  From customs data, the net people flow (arrivals less departures) in June was -20,841.  Net people flow for the YTD is currently -95,694.  It will be interesting to see what the second half of the year holds as this is traditionally the time of year for people inflow. 

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Immigration New Zealand Statistics via MBIE

Edit: excludes citizens - so yes, looks worse!

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Customs data:

EO June 2023:

  • 1mo -17730
  • 3mo -85319
  • 6mo -41478
  • 9mo 108175
  • 12mo 99122

EO June 2024:

  • 1mo -20367
  • 3mo -141,404
  • 6mo -95864
  • 9mo 44443
  • 12mo 71969

October 2023 was the biggest monthly net arrivals possibly ever at nearly 80,000. Once that comes through the wash later this year figures will likely look a little lower.

 

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we get the full data in 15 hours!

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That's incredible: Baidu last year set up a driverless taxi service in Wuhan and a few other places called "Carrot Run" (萝卜快跑), and the experiment is proving super popular with already 6 million rides completed with a fleet of just 1,000 cars. The main reason is cost: Show more   

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Love it. State-owned Vietnamese telco Viettel has launched their own ride hailing service with a difference. 

- Commission free for drivers + labor contracts, social insurance, and free data usage. Main ride hailing provider Grab takes 30% with no labor contract and social insurance.

- No surge charging for customers. 

First thing people will say is that the service will run at a loss. Precisely. And that is the idea.

- Viettel has approx 50% market share for telco services and makes ginormous profits. The ride hailing service embellishes the brand.

- Foreign competitors lose market share but will have to right to offer a better service to customers. 

- Viettel benefits from the data collection, not foreign companies.  

 

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Waymo has been operating in Texas for some time now, and is now rolling out in California.  It wont be long before these are standard everywhere (except maybe NZ because we are so technologically backwards).

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But we are now allowed to drive faster..visionary ideas to increase GDP

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As my panel beater mate says, bad drivers are good for business. 

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Not to mention the pediatricians.

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REINZ is going to be sobering this month.    With QV rolling over and REINZ not using aged data....

 

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So, the IRD is now actually encouraging tax fraud or at least not discouraging it. Anybody got a bunch of wet bus tickets sitting around to donate to the IRD?

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@David C - I think the 5 year swap is hugely out of whack with a transposition error. Went from 4.38 9 Jul to 5.34 10 Jul? Should it be 4.34? Or we really are f*cked!

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They say the overall +1°C rise over 40 years is an oceanic heatwave. What will they say when it gets to +2°C? Boiling?

Man, the amount of energy to heat the oceans by 1 degree is staggering.  Maybe DC you need to think about your great grand children. If they get to your age that's 3-4 degrees of warming if its linear, but its looking like the rate is increasing, so maybe 5-8 degrees of warming. 

When do you think its a problem? Maybe not in your lifetime, but you should really think of the future of our species a little bit harder. Or do you think its only a problem at 100 degrees?

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