Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
BNZ cut two key home loan rates to ensure it's offer card matches the lowest rates from its main rivals. More here. More details here. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank cut some short-term rates today. More here. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
SHRINKING
Our economy shrank -0.2% in June quarter. On a per capita basis, this recession has surpassed the Global Financial Crisis after contracting on that basis for seven consecutive quarters. On a 'real' basis, total gross Q2-2024 quarterly economic activity was virtually unchanged from Q2-2023.
SINKING
ANZ said card spending among its merchant customers was down -1.8% in August from a year ago as 'soft demand' took its toll. The types of spending most sensitive to interest rates are experiencing the largest falls.
SLIDING
The latest SEEK employment report showed that their job ad volumes fell -1% in August from July to be -31% lower than in August a year ago. Auckland is also down -31% year-on-year, but Wellington is down -41%. Christchurch is down -28% on that same basis.The least fall (-18%) is in Otago. They also noted a clear drop in ads for accountants.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. FBU and Vector rise, SkyCity and Oceania fall.
DATE SET
Fonterra said it will release its annual results on Wednesday, September 25, 2024. Analysts expect them to be better than in recent years.
POPULAR PAPER
Today's three-part NZGB bond tender was very well supported with 125 bids, with 56 winning a portion. More than $1.2 bln was bid for the $500 mln available.
RAIDING THE KITTY?
Airways New Zealand has today announced its annual results for the year ending 30 June 2024. The air navigation services provider is reporting strong safety and operational performance and a positive financial result. And it reported a surplus of $14.5 mln after paying tax. But it also declared a dividend to its Government shareholder of $20 mln.
IS LIFE FAIR FOR YOU?
A new study by NZIER and Auckland University for Treasury investigated our perceptions of fairness. Interestingly, they found we mostly agreed what 'fairness' means, but we disagree whether life is fair or not. There are two opinion groups. The larger group believes that people have different starting points in life, and fairness means providing resources or opportunities to overcome those differences. The smaller group – basically the pale/male/stale cohort – believes that people already have equal opportunities and should be rewarded for their efforts or choices. Half of the participants (51%) said life is fair for them, and a quarter (25%) said it is unfair.
NEW DIRECTOR FOR SBS BANK
SBS Bank says Jason Franklin will be joining its board as a director from October 1. Franklin is CEO of PowerNet and also has governance roles with SmartCo Ltd, Electricity Networks Association and Southland Regional Development Agency, SBS says.
TAX SENTENCING
A Feilding man was sentenced to home detention on tax evasions charges totalling more than $600,000. The Palmerston North District Court sentenced Fortune Shumba to 12 months home detention and 200 hours of community work. He was also ordered to pay reparation of $50 per week for the next 5 years ($3000) in addition.
CASUALISED
In Australia, their number of workers without a job fell by -10,500 to 627,000, or an unchanged 4.2% of their workforce. Even though employment rose by much more than the expected +25,000, the number of new part-time roles rose +47,500 and the number of new full-time roles fell -3,100 in August. Almost 31% of all Aussie jobs are now part-time. (In New Zealand it is barely touching 20%.)
THERE ARE NOW 27 MLN AUSSIES
Australia's population grew by +2.3% from a year ago to 27.1 million people as at March 2024, according to the latest figures released today. They grew by +510,000 net migrants, plus a +105,500 natural increase.
HOSTAGE ELECTIONEERING
Blocked by an unlikely grouping of Democrats and MAGA forces in the US House of Representatives, an extended US Government funding package has failed to pass a key vote, designed to affect election perceptions. It could be a rocky road for them, and financial markets, over the next 48 days.
SWAP RATES MOVE UP
Wholesale swap rates are higher today. As at writing, the Fed reaction caused 10yr to rise +3 bps, and then the GDP outcome extended the move, now up +7 bps on the day to 3.87%. The 2yr is up +6 bps.. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is holding -1 bp lower at 5.00%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps at 3.98%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp from yesterday at 2.04% and a new record low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up a very sharp +13 bps at 4.30% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.20% and up another +7 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is up +9 bps at 3.74%. Their 2yr is now at 3.65%, so that curve is more positive, now by +9 bps.
EQUITIES ALL UP, EXCEPT WALL STREET
The NZX50 is up +0.3% in its late Thursday trade. The ASX200 is also up +0.3% in afternoon trade. However Tokyo has surged in its opening trade up +2.5%. Hong Kong is up +1.1% but Shanghai is 'only' up +0.5%. Singapore is up +0.6% at its open. The S&P500 ended its Wednesday session on Wall Street down -0.3% as it digested the Fed's decisions and Powell's comments.
OIL DIPS
The oil price is down -50 USc from this time yesterday at just under US$70.50/bbl in the US, and now just under US$73.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE STEADY
The carbon price is unchanged again at $61/NZU. Volumes traded are still light. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DIPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$12 at US$2561/oz and off its recent record high.
NZD FIRM
The Kiwi dollar has stayed up, now at 62.2 USc, and a +20 bps gain from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have hel at 91.7 AUc. And against the euro we have risen +20 bps to 56 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 69.8 and up +20 bps.
BITCOIN UP AGAIN
The bitcoin price is up +3.1% from this time yesterday, now at US$62,230. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.8%.
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