A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; a TD rate rise, retail impulse weak, high milk payouts to extend, we may win some trade war gains, swaps stable, NZD weaker, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Nelson Building Society (NBS) raised its nine month TD from 3.65% to 4.00% today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A WEAK RETAIL PULSE
ANZ said its card spending behaviours suggest a shrinking retail sector. Not a fast shrink, but certainly not growing. Part of the lower spending is because petrol prices are much lower, down -7.1% from a year ago. But consumers aren't shifting those benefits to other areas. Not clothing (down -3.8% from a year ago), and not hospitality (down -3.5%). There were a new categories showing 'growth' but all the retail ones are +1.1% of less.

DAIRY PROSPERITY TO LINGER
And staying with ANZ, their analysts have fallen into line with an updated milk payout forecast of $10/kgMS in the current season, and say the next 2025/26 season is likely to be similar. You can see how their forecasts compare with the other main analysts, here (bottom of that page).

TRADE SALE CANDIDATES LINE UP
And speaking of Fonterra, the list of trade buyers who are showing interest in buying their brands business, thought to be worth north of $2.4 bln, is growing. It now includes France's Lactalis, Canada's Saputo, Japan's Meiji, Australia's Bega Cheese, and American private equity firm Warburg Pincus. A local public float is looking increasingly unlikely.

REDMEAT DEMAND STAYS ELEVATED
Red meat industry insiders are saying interest from China in sheepmeats remains strong, but limited local availability of animals continues to restrict supply. Prices for lamb in both the EU and UK remain firm. In the American beef market, there is little change, with tariffs remaining the primary concern. Some importers are still delaying purchases as they wait for greater clarity. (Commentary based on Prime Range Meats.)

AND WINE COULD BE A TARIFF-WAR WINNER
Rabobank has been looking at how the tariff war will affect the beef, lamb and wine markets. They say overall our primary product exports should be able to maintain their current trade volumes and some categories could actually gain market share in both the US and China. A good example is for our wine which my only get a 10% tariff into the US whereas importers of French and South American wines will have to pay much more. Similarly, China will hit US wine imports hard, again opening opportunities for us. But for most, tariffs are lose-lose, undermining consumers and their demand, so we shouldn't bling ourselves to the overall toxic impact of the tariff war.

NZX ENDS WEEK STRONG
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.1% so far today. That means it is up +2.2% for the past week, down -3.6% since the start of the year, and up +7.3% from this time last year. Meridian, The Warehouse, Freightways, and NZX close the week as the biggest gainers, with Vista, Precinct, Stride, and Serko topping decliners.

APPEAL FAILS SPECTACULARLY
In August 2023, a defendant was found guilty of an insider trading offence following a four-week trial in the Auckland High Court. They were sentenced to six months community detention and a fine of $100,000. In April 2024 they appealed the conviction and the High Court’s decision to refuse name suppression. The Crown also appealed the sentence, saying it was manifestly inadequate. Today, the Court of Appeal dismissed the appeal against conviction, dismissed the appeal against the refusal to grant name suppression, pending final decision of the conviction appeal, with the existing interim name suppression to continue for seven days post judgment, and granted the Crown’s appeal against the sentence in part, increasing the fine aspect of the sentence to $200,000. Name suppression will expire in seven days.

WATCHING THE WATER
Recent rainfall has the Auckland water supply dams much closer to normal levels than they have been for months. Similarly, there has been a recovery in hydro lake levels back towards normal. South Island inflows have returned to normal, but not yet in the North island although the current wet tropical storms may assist the recovery there.

JAPAN DATA IMPRESSES
In Japan, household spending rose +2.1% in March from a year ago and far better than the expected +0.2% gain. It was the strongest growth since December. Helping was that the previous retreats of spending on food basically stopped, while spending on furniture and on recreation rose a good levels.

CHINA DATA SURPRISES
In China, April exports came in very much better than the pullback expected. In fact their trade surplus was almost as strong as the unusual March trade surplus. Few were expecting this 'good' result. Here are the results by trading partner.

SWAP RATES UNCHANGED
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed today across all durations, although longer ones may be firmer. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.38% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.33%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 4.57% and was up +5 bps to 4.53% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is on 4.36%, up +7 bps.

EQUITIES MOSTLY POSITIVE AGAIN
The NZX50 is up +1.3% today, and the ASX200 is also up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.5% as well in early Friday trade. Hong Kong has dipped -0.1% while Shanghai is down -0.5%, both clearly nervous about the upcoming trade talks. Singapore has opened up +0.7%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade up +0.6% on the S&P500.

OIL RECOVERS
The oil price is up +US$1.50 at US$60/bbl in the US, and US$63/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STAYS LOW BUT FIRMISH
The carbon price is risen +50c to NZ$50.50/NZU and again on modest volumes. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RISES AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$99/oz from yesterday at this time to US$3302/oz.

NZD FALLS
The Kiwi dollar is down -80 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 92.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 52.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 67.4, and down -40 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN RISES AGAIN
The bitcoin price is at US$102,736 which is up +4.0% from the price this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate, at +/- 2.5%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by 8ollowing our Economic Calendar here ».