A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; IRD wants its loans repaid, concrete production weak, commercial building 'sad', Summerset on bond merry-go-round, swaps firm, NZD firmish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heretaunga Building Society trimmed their six and 12 month TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

ENFORCING THE LOAN TERMS
Inland Revenue is set to bring the hammer down on Govt-backed Covid business loans that haven't been repaid on their issue terms. Those who haven't repaid their Small Business Cashflow loans will start facing substantial default interest from next month.

COST PRESSURE EASES
The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets remained steady in April, showing an average +2.0% increase in what suppliers charged in April 2025, compared to a year earlier. In April 2024 they rose 3.0%.

TEN QUARTERS OF DECLINE
Q1-2025 ready-mixed concrete volume data was released today and that confirmed the weak state of the construction sector. Volumes were down -1.5% in the March 2025 quarter to 854,500 m³. The quarterly volume was the second lowest since mid-2014 (behind last quarter, excluding lockdowns). Infometrics noted volumes have been under 1 mln m³ for six consecutive quarters, following three full years above 1 mln (excluding lockdowns). Of note, Auckland volumes were +3.3% higher in Q1 than a year ago, Wellington was down -7.4%, and Christchurch was down -10.7% on the same basis.

'A BIT SAD' - BUT A BRIGHT SPOT
Commercial building construction is looking a bit sad with new warehouse space the bright spot. Fewer consents are being issued for most types of commercial buildings but the warehouse sector remains buoyant in Q1-2025.

NZX STARTS WEEK POSITIVE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.7% so far today. That means it is up +2.2% for the past week, down -2.9% since the start of the year, and up +8.9% from this time last year. Today's 58 gainers were led by Mainfreight, Oceania, Manawa and The Warehouse. There are 28 decliners, led by NZX, Kathmandu, Tourism holdings and Vulcan Steel. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.2%.

ANOTHER CORPORATE BOND
Retirement village operator Summerset said it is seeking up to $150 mln in a six year, fixed rate bond that will mature on 23 May 2031. The indicative issue margin range for the bonds is 1.95% to 2.10% pa. The current six year swap rate is about 3.60%. These funds are part of a merry-go-round. The net proceeds will be used to repay a portion of existing drawn bank debt. Summerset then intends to use bank debt to fund the repayment of Summerset’s SUM020 bonds, which mature on 24 September 2025.

NEAR FINAL RESULT
With just three of their 150 seats undecided, the Aussie election has shaken out as follows. Labour Party 94 seats (vs 77 last time), the Liberal/National Coalition 42 seats of which 16 are in Queensland (nationally they had 58 last time). Independent/Teals 9 (10), minor one-person electorates 2 (2). The Greens 0 (4).

SWAP RATES MAY HAVE FIRMED
Wholesale swap rates may have risen today, especially for the longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.37% on Friday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +10 bps at 4.39%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.65%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +9 bps at 4.60% and was up +2 bps to 4.55% in the earlier RBNZ fix today from Friday. The UST 10yr yield is on 4.41%, up +3 bps.

EQUITIES LOOK AHEAD POSITIVELY
The NZX50 is up +0.6% today, and the ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is unchanged in early Monday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.9% while Shanghai is up +0.5%, both up on the Geneva rumours & signals. Singapore has opened up +0.7%. Wall Street futures trade is signaling that same Geneva optimism, with the S&P500 futures up +1.7% from Friday's close.

OIL MARGINALLY FIRMER
The oil price is up +50 USc at US$61.50/bbl in the US, and just over US$64/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STAYS LOW BUT FIRMS AGAIN
The carbon price is risen +$1 to NZ$52.15/NZU and again on modest volumes. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RETREATS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$52/oz from this morning's open to US$3271/oz.

NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this morning, now at 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 52.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 67.6 and little-changed.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is at US$103,882 which is down -0.2% from this morning. Volatility has been low at +/- 0.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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