A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; no retail rate changes, service sector weaker, producer prices jump, big fraud case win for SFO/MSD, China data resilient, swaps steepen, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes so far today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are none to report today either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

THE FINTECH CROWD GROWS
Yet another fintech has launched today, trying to attract savings with promises of a higher interest rate - and an attractively designed app. Wedge Money is offering 4.0% in a call account, earned by them reinvesting in "professionally managed, low-risk investment funds". Their trust account is held at BNZ. The 4.0% they offer is higher than any of the other similar accounts from the fintechs we follow.

A FURTHER CONTRACTION, STILL UNDERWATER
The services sector again contracted slightly in the last month and is 'a long way from being back to full health', according to the BNZ-BusinessNZ PSI for April.

PRODUCER COSTS RISE FASTER THAN PRICES
Worse, there was a worrying is in Q1-2025 producer prices, evidence that inflation is stirring again. First, producer input costs were up +5.3% in 2025 from the same quarter in 2024. This was their fastest pace of increase since the GFC, apart from the pandemic disruption. Output costs rose +4.7% on the same basis. So that means producers were worse off by a net -0.6% overall.

SWINGS EQUAL ROUNDABOUTS
But on the farm, the net inflationary pressures are remaining very low, as they have done for more than a year now. For all farms, these costs are down -0.6% from a year ago. Some costs are rising fast still, like electricity which was up +6.8% in the year, freight was up +7.1%, and local and central government rates and fees by +10.0%. But they are all essentially offset by large fall in interest costs -14.9% and some others like fuel down -3.1% week & pest control -4.3%. For sheep & beef farms, the annual dip was -0.7% but for dairy farms they had a -1.4% decrease because the debt levels fell faster allowing an even larger fall in interest costs. Horticulture experienced a +0.8% increase.

TWELVE YEAR LOW
The price pressure on new capital goods remained low, up +1.6% in March from a year ago. And that was the smallest increase since the end of 2013.

NZX DIPS FURTHER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is lower again, so far today, down -0.7%. That means it is up just +0.2% for the past week, down -2.8% since the start of the year, and up +8.2% from this time last year. There are 38 gainers, led by NZX, Meridian, Mercury and Oceania. There are 48 decliners led by The Warehouse, Vulcan Steel, Fletcher and a2 Milk.

MORE FRAUD EXPOSED
An Auckland man who tried to fraudulently claim millions of dollars through the Covid-19 wage subsidy scheme (WSS) and other government support schemes has been found guilty following a trial on charges brought by the SFO. Hun Min Im faced 91 charges related to his attempts to claim $1.88 million from the WSS, as well as from the Small Business Cashflow Scheme, COVID-19 Support Payments and Resurgence Support Payments. In total he attempted to claim $2.3 million and received almost $624,000.

SOME CHINA DATA SHOWS RESILIENCE
China's retail sales increased by +5.1% in April from the same month a year ago, moderating from March's over 1-year high of +5.9% and missing market estimates of +5.5%. But is was one of the still-good data releases from China today, one that is in a rising trend and even better because they have virtually no inflation.

SOME CHINA DATA HARD TO BELIEVE
Another positive data release from China came from their industrial production which grew by a claimed +6.1% in April from a year ago and better than the expected +5.5% gain. However, the latest figure eased from the +7.7% growth recorded in March. Meanwhile, electricity production rose only +0.9% in April, hardly supporting the much stronger industrial output claim. It seems very unlikely they had that sort of sudden energy efficiency.

SOME CHINA DATA STILL VERY WEAK
Meanwhile their national real estate development investment fell sharply yet again, and the residential sector was down -9.6% from April last year. And prices for new, and previously-owned housing is still down sharply on a year-on-year basis even if there are small pockets of regional improvements.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates may be little-changed at the short end again today but the swap curve is steepening. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bp at 3.34% on Friday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.56%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.68%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +9 bps at 4.70% and was up +7 bps to 4.56% in the earlier RBNZ fix today from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is on 4.51%, up +7 bps.

EQUITIES EASE
The NZX50 is down -0.7% today, and the ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.4 in early Monday trade. Hong Kong has dropped -0.4% while Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore has opened down -0.2%. The futures market suggests Wall Street will open -0.5% lower on the S&P500 tomorrow.

OIL UNCHANGED
The oil price is essentially unchanged just on US$62.50/bbl in the US, and just on US$65.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price softened today but only slightly, down -20c to NZ$55.50/NZU on lowish volumes. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is higher, up +US$26/oz from this morning at US$3226/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this morning, now at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 52.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 67.5 and unchanged.

BITCOIN STILL IN A YOYO RISE
The bitcoin price is at US$104,617 and down -0.7% from this morning. Volatility has remained modest at +/- 1.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by 8ollowing our Economic Calendar here ».