A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; some TD rate trimmings, Budget 2025 announcements, tougher in the regions, more crypto & personal loan dodgyness, swaps stable, NZD eases, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank has trimmed its 12 and 18 month TD rates. ICBC cut TD rates too, all rates for 4 months and longer. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

TAXES ON PAYROLLS TO RISE, GROWTH TO BE RESTRAINED
The 2025 Budget delivers tax breaks to boost investment, as trade war whacks the growth outlook. The Government will require to increase KiwiSaver contribution rates to a minimum of 4% matched by employers, and give firms a tax break on asset purchases to support the faltering economic recovery. Behind it all are 'brave' / 'optimistic' Treasury projections.

MORE DEBT
The forecast 2025/26 New Zealand Government Bond program has been set at $38 bln, -$2 bln lower than the 2024 HYEFU. The forecast NZGB program for 2026/27 has been reduced by -$2 bln, while 2027/28 and 2028/29 have been revised higher, by +$2 bn and +$6 bln respectively. The forecast 2024/25 NZGB program is set at $43 billion. The +$3 billion increase from HYEFU prefunds some of the future cash requirements.That all means net core crown debt is set to peak at $128 bln in 2027/28, bringing the peak forward a year from the previous forecast of $129 bln in 2028/29.

FUNDING FOR BETTER DATA
Budget 2025 grants the Reserve Bank’s wish for monthly CPI data and other more accurate economic statistical reporting. (But to accommodate that other areas are getting heavy cuts, like for RadioNZ.)

SOLID BANK CAPITAL LEVELS NOT AN IMPEDIMENT FOR FHB LENDING
The RBNZ says it doesn't believe changing bank capital rules to enable lower interest rates for first home buyers is warranted. There is 'no compelling evidence lending to first home buyers is lower risk than lending to other home buyers', they say.

ITS TOUGH IN TRACTORLAND
April new tractor registrations usually take a small dip from March. But this year March was unusually low at 136 and April came in at a shockingly low level of just 103 nationally. The average over the prior ten years was 174 if you exclude the dead April 2020 pandemic month. Otherwise, we haven't had an April month this low in 25 years. There will be some dealers doing it tough. It's not all positive in rural regions.

REGIONAL ECONOMIES 'CHALLENGING'
In fact, Infometrics says employment is declining everywhere, and especially in North Island regions. Taranaki, Tairawhiti, and Wellington are where it seems toughest on the employment front. If,. as they claim, rural regions are where the gains will come from, the tractor dealers didn't get the memo.

NZX DRIFTS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.6% so far today, largely ignoring the Budget. It is down -1.5% for the past week, down -2.9% since the start of the year, but up +8.2% from this time last year. There were 24 gainers, led by Gentrack, SkyTV, Infratil and a2 Milk.Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare was up +0.4% at 3pm. There were 52 decliners led by Kathmandu, Synlait, Heartland and Mainfreight.

WARNING ON CRYPTO CLAIMS
The FMA has issued a public warning about a managed investment scheme operated by Jesse Joseph Vaughan and former NZ company Crypto Partners Ltd. Apparently Vaughan claimed he had applied for a MIS manager’s license, and that it was being reviewed by the FMA. The FMA says that wasn't true. Crypto is a magnet for illegal activity, an easy-come, easy-go parallel world.

THE HIGH COST OF DEBT
We were disappointed to find a banner ad on this site that offered a $5000 loan at 12.95% for twelve months, with monthly repayments of $505.40. Our handy calculator reveals this is an effective interest rate of 37.2% pa. Doubly disappointing was that this company is ultimately controlled by state-owned Kiwi Group Capital Limited. Most borrowers won't qualify for 12.95% and will not choose a short repayment term. Longer terms and higher rates push these effective rates very much higher. Who is the shark?

ORDER SURGE
In Japan, they booked record high machinery orders in March, up +8.4% from a year ago, and far above what was anticipated. The outlook for the next three months looks good too. But we should note these gains are built on fast-rising domestic orders. Export order contributions were weak.

WHAT WE ARE UP AGAINST
As a publisher of original material, free for all readers, big-tech is a parasite on our content. This from Bloomberg: "While using web site data to build a Google Search topped with artificial intelligence-generated answers, an Alphabet Inc. executive acknowledged in an internal document that there was an alternative way to do things: They could ask web publishers for permission, or let them directly opt out of being included. But giving publishers a choice would make training AI models in search too complicated, the company concludes in the document, which was unearthed in the company’s search antitrust trial. It said Google had a “hard red line” and would require all publishers who wanted their content to show up in the search page to also be used to feed AI features. Instead of giving options, Google decided to “silently update,” with “no public announcement” about how they were using publishers’ data, according to the document, written by Chetna Bindra, a product management executive at Google Search. “Do what we say, say what we do, but carefully.” They teach their large language models off content such as ours, to ultimately re-direct search away from us. This is why we need your support.

SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates may be little-changed again at the short end today but higher for longer maturities. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.31% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.53%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.69%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.74% but was up +12 bp3 to 4.75% in the earlier RBNZ fix today from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is on 4.59%, up +8 bps.

EQUITIES FALL
The NZX50 is down -0.6% today, and the ASX200 is down -0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.9 in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong has fallen -0.8% at its open while Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore has opened down -0.5%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session with the S&P500 down a sharpish -1.6%.

OIL RETREATS
The oil price is down -US$1.50 at just on US$61.50/bbl in the US, and down -US$2 to just over US$64.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price is unchanged today at NZ$56/NZU but there is very little volume. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$39/oz from this time yesterday at US$3340/oz.

NZD EASES MARGINALLY
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday, now at 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 52.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 67.7 and -10 bps softer.

BITCOIN FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price is at US$106,919 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has remained modest at +/-1.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by 8ollowing our Economic Calendar here ».