What happened Friday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rate changes, money laundered convicted & fined, beef prices rise again, water storage returns to normal, swaps firmish, NZD stable, & more

6th Jun 25, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report here, either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

REMITTANCE COMPANY CONVICTED, BUT APPEALS
Auckland-based foreign exchange and money remittance company Qian DuoDuo, which traded under the name Lidong Foreign Exchange, has been convicted and fined $1.125 mln for failing to report suspicious activities and to submit prescribed transaction reports. According to the Department of Internal Affairs, of these transactions, 26 involved "objectively suspicious activities" with a total value of $4.72 mln, while 171 involved "prescribed transactions" with a total value of $14.42 mln. The company is appealing.

ELECTRIFYING
The Government is supporting Hawke’s Bay Trails and the Remutaka Cycle Trail to set up e-bike charging stations from a $3 mln 2024 package. More regions set to benefit from a second funding round in 2025 when Heartland and Connector Rides will be able to apply too.

NZX50 ENDS HIGHER FOR THE WEEK
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed but showing softish signs so far today. It is up +2.4% for the past week, down -3.8% since the start of the year, but up +5.0% from this time last year. Skellerup, Ryman, The Warehouse, and NZX lead today's gains, with Fletcher Building, Gentrack, Kathmandu, and Oceania the main decliners.

STILL RISING, SO ALTERNATIVES ARRIVE
Next week's livestock processing schedules and in-house buyers sheets will have beef prices up again, by about another +20c/kg in some cases. Lamb/sheep prices will probably be unchanged. In the market demand is strong for prime steers. Local supply is insufficient and that is seeing more Australian product entering the market. H/T PRM.

FILLING FAST
The recent [warm] June rains in the north have filled Auckland's water storage dams quickly, so that now the overall storage levels are higher now than year-ago levels for the first time in 2025. Waitakere dams are nearly 90% full. Hunua dams are much larger, and the largest, Mangatangi, is 69% full. Still that is fuller than year-ago levels.

UNCOMFORTABLE ABOUT WHAT WILL BE TRADED AWAY
In Australia, farmers are raising concerns their Government will offer Trump better access to Australia for American beef, hormones and all. "Biosecurity isn't a bargaining chip" they say.

KEEPING PERSPECTIVE ON FEUDING BILLIONAIRES
Readers will know about the Trump/Musk breakup. Every media outlet is reporting it and the subsequent huge dive in the 'value' of Tesla stock. -US$152 bln in one day. A great headline, and true. But we should also note that the price TSLA closed at on the Nasdaq US$284.70, is the same it was on May 8, 2025, February 27, 2025, and November 6, 2024. It's down sharply, but since November 6 it has risen to US$480 at one point, and a US$220 low at another.

SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates are possibly a little firmer. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.32% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 4.26%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at under 1.70%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.61% but was up +7 bps to 4.58% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now up +2 bps 4.39%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.1% so far today, and the ASX200 is down the same in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.5% in early Friday trade. Hong Kong is down -0.2% at its open while Shanghai is up +0.1%. Singapore has opened up +0.1% too. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade down -0.5% on the S&P500 hurt by the breakup of the Musk/Trump bromance.

OIL FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The oil price is marginally firner, up +50 USc at just over US$63/bbl in the US, and just over at US$65/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price is marginally softer at NZ$55/NZU on very low transaction volume. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. So it will fail. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$9/oz from this time yesterday at US$3360/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday, now at 60.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 52.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still just under 66.5.

BITCOIN DIPS FURTHER
The bitcoin price is now at US$102,258 and down -2.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility has again been moderate at +/-2.5%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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24 Comments

by Foxglove. | 6th Jun 25, 4:12pm 1749183176

The Trump/Musk break up. Resonant of the old idiom “when thieves fall out.” The second part of which “honest men come by their own” is unfortunately likely to be hard pressed to find many genuine contenders.

by powerdownkiwi | 6th Jun 25, 4:41pm 1749184902

The increased stress being felt by a growing cohort, has projected two narcissistic, empathy-lacking people into that space.

It was never going to work, but it isn't the problem. The problem is the growing cohort of disgruntled disenfranchised, and the problem with that is the why?

by IT GUY | 6th Jun 25, 4:50pm 1749185457

Musk has issues with

overlapping romantic relationships

we all know that these are not good problems to have

he also seems to have a recreational drug problem extending beyond the weekends….so not so recreational

by Yvil | 6th Jun 25, 5:43pm 1749188638

You seem to know him really well, is he a mate of yours ?

by tis i | 6th Jun 25, 6:02pm 1749189737

Used to drive my tractor.

by powerdownkiwi | 6th Jun 25, 6:15pm 1749190522

He's a d-tractor now

As are others....

by powerdownkiwi | 6th Jun 25, 4:38pm 1749184720

The company is appealing.

Not very, it isn't.

by AN Other | 6th Jun 25, 5:02pm 1749186125

Maybe that should read appalling rather than appealing.

by AN Other | 6th Jun 25, 5:14pm 1749186865

In other news, an apparently small error resulted in a major internet outage across the lower north island:

Internet outage cut connection to thousands in Lower North Island | Stuff

Amidst the innumerable jokes about productivity increasing and "influencers" being distraught when they couldn't check on likes and comments is the concern over how easy it seemed to be to cut off the internet (and with it EFTPOS services) to thousands of citizens.

Not quite the level of resiliance a connected society anticipated.

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 6th Jun 25, 5:31pm 1749187888

Silver market cap flipped the ol' rat poison today. Up another 43 cents in Asia trading.

Mary Holm from Granny has come out with some dreadful comments about precious metals. Mary, the finance industry, and the respective thought leaders need to be held to account.

Anyway,

P5Y

S&P 500 Total Return Index - 94.1%

XAUUSD - 99.9%

CFDs on Silver (US$ / OZ) - 106.87%

by Yvil | 6th Jun 25, 5:47pm 1749188858

Interesting article on TV1 news last night about the race to crack the nuclear fusion (the opposite of nuclear fission), and knowing that NZ has a young team of dedicated scientist in that race. It is touted "the holy grail" of new, clean energy production.

This does not fit PDK's repetitive mantra "the world is running out of energy". I pre-empt PDK rubbishing nuclear fusion, and maybe it won't turn out to be the cure-all. If this fails, there will be another, yet unknown source of energy production in the future. My point is that PDK does not account for mankind's resourcefulness and inventiveness.

by AN Other | 6th Jun 25, 5:42pm 1749188540

Lloyd Burr featured them on TV3 as well. Good to see Open Star Technologies schmoozing the media to keep reminding the general public (well, the TV watching general public) that they are operating.

by powerdownkiwi | 6th Jun 25, 5:58pm 1749189483

Bull--it.

And thrice bu--sh-t.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cT5d8n1Syb8

The sun's inner heat cannot be contained. Which is why the only examples spin in space.

But irrespective, even unlimited free energy, would not solve our total predicament; people like you would just use it more. With inevitable repercussions - already wild animal mass is down to 3% of total (human and human-kept animals outweigh) - you'd just wipe the remainder out. Along with what's left of the rest of the biosphere (there were perhaps 6 trillion trees, pre human; there are 3 trillion now - plot the trend...)

No, we need a change of attitude, and we aren't going to change until the System collapses. Watch that link, and come back saying the same nonsense - I dare you.

And shame on the NZ media for facilitating the peddling of such - I assume they're in need of more 'funding'. For the record, I walk weekly with a fellow who did his thesis into this - he's been retired for a decade...

by Yvil | 6th Jun 25, 5:54pm 1749189281

As I wrote above:

"I pre-empt PDK rubbishing nuclear fusion, and maybe it won't turn out to be the cure-all. If this fails, there will be another, yet unknown source of energy production in the future. My point is that PDK does not account for mankind's resourcefulness and inventiveness."

You have tunnel vision PDK, you cannot contemplate any other scenario than what you have decided will be.

by profile | 6th Jun 25, 6:44pm 1749192251

"The hair shirt eco-elite don’t want pain-free fusion power

The green zealots are far more interested in lecturing others than improving lives and the planet through technology"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/12/hair-shirt-eco-elite-dont-w…

by powerdownkiwi | 6th Jun 25, 7:12pm 1749193936

Watch my link upthread, Yvil. All of it. Yes, it will have you wanting to run away (people like you, do) - but stick with it. That's the difference between you and I. If you sailed offshore, you'd get that one has to confront reality, and it often isn't what you had wished for. And you have to use what you have - no Bunnings out there - to solve your problem. Or improvise - and one finds that physics trumps wishful thinking every time. It's a good teacher.

I look around, more than 20 years since I attended my first energy, more than 20 years since I build my off-grid, Homestar-8 house, and I see MORE fossil-dependent machinery, infrastructure and societal formats, than then. Since I first read the Limits to Growth, global population has doubled. Every other count has been exponential too; either up or down. I look at what's on the highways. I look at what's currently in the car/truck/tractor/boat sales yards - BRAND NEW. And know we're too late to turn this thing around, indeed, know that we've only ADDED 'renewable energy' to fossil, not displaced.

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2022/09/death-by-hockey-sticks/

I have continued researching the interface between energy and 'economic growth' ever since, and have come across this kind of thing before - for instance an OERC (Otago Energy Research Council) seminar back about 2009, where an enthusiastic young PhD student explained her part in a project to separate out the photosynthetic part of a plant's DNA, reconstruct it alone and use it to power the world. Underneath, she was husting for research money. Went to one about 2018, and an older fellow made the same presentation, telling us he was at a stage which sounded somewhat familiar... Yup, he had picked up the project and was hustling; the research phase was still expected to be 10 years. But humanity doesn't have 10 years left; the disintegration is happening now. These folk need the money to keep paying their mortgages tomorrow - they're not going to tell you it's hokum.

Have the bravery to watch that link, eh? Come back with a reasoned rebuttal...

by Yvil | 6th Jun 25, 7:56pm 1749196581

"If you sailed offshore, you'd get that one has to confront reality, and it often isn't what you had wished for."

I did sail offshore, that's how I ended here in NZ !

by tis i | 6th Jun 25, 6:08pm 1749190127

The sun's inner heat cannot be contained.

Yes it can.

But to be fair Yvil, fusion has been just around the corner for the last 50 years.

by Foxglove. | 6th Jun 25, 6:16pm 1749190602

Thinking of an old capping mag cartoon whereby an old professor asks two students in the lab what they are trying to discover come invent?Oh, just an acid that will dissolve everything. Ok, so then what are you going to keep it in?

by powerdownkiwi | 6th Jun 25, 7:11pm 1749193879

15 million degrees?

Piece of ---------- cake.

by tis i | 6th Jun 25, 7:21pm 1749194518

Piece of cake for 1 solar mass.

by IT GUY | 6th Jun 25, 8:08pm 1749197303

The mass of superheated plasma within a fusion reactor is relatively small, typically on the order of a few grams, but it's confined and heated to extremely high temperatures (150 million degrees Celsius). While the total mass is small, the plasma's density is extremely low, about 1014 particles per cubic centimeter, which is 250,000 times thinner than Earth's atmosphere.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

Very Low Density:

The superheated plasma in a fusion reactor, like the ITER reactor, has a density of about 1.0 x 1019 m−3, which is roughly one-millionth the density of Earth's atmosphere according to Wikipedia.
Confined by Magnetic Fields:

The plasma is confined and heated by powerful magnetic fields within a device like a tokamak, according to UKAEA Fusion Energy which maintains the high temperature and allows fusion reactions to occur.
Small Mass, High Energy:

Despite the small mass, the plasma contains a tremendous amount of energy due to its extremely high temperature and the potential for nuclear fusion reactions.

by powerdownkiwi | 6th Jun 25, 8:25pm 1749198354

At the end of the day. all these things - pipedreams or not - only 'produce' electricity.

There are wide-eyed academics in silos, who think we can just double our grid. There are wider thinkers who realise that materially, that is a huge ask. As for replacing the fleet of ff-dependent machinery - the siloed ones are silent. That's someone else's silo.

by IT GUY | 6th Jun 25, 8:40pm 1749199241

we could probably support a 1-200 mil population