What happened Monday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; Kiwibank cuts, fewer jobs, busier factories, financial markets quiet, Chinese CPI flat despite 'raging price wars' Chinese PPI deflates, swaps stable, NZD firmish, & more

9th Jun 25, 4:00pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank cut fixed rates today. Details here. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank also cut many of its term deposit rates. Unity Money and Heretaunga Building Society also cut rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

JOB SHRINKAGE
StatsNZ data from the IRD's PAYE system shows that we have now had job shrinkage nationally in every quarter for the past year. The Q1-2025 decline was the least of them however. From a year ago, Auckland has -1.1% fewer jobs in Q1-2025, Waikato -1.0% fewer, Bay of Plenty -1.4% less, Hawkes Bay -1.9%, Wellington -2.5%, and Canterbury -0.6%. For the whole country, the decline is a net loss of -39,000 filled jobs in a year.

FACTORIES ZOOM IN Q1-2025
Despite that, the Q1-2025 manufacturing data that will feed into next week's GDP result was surprisingly strong. Sales revenues were up +11.1% from the same 2024 quarter. On a volume basis, they were up +4.1%. These are far better gains than we have seem for a long time. In fact, apart from the pandemic recovery, since 2013.

NO LONGER ATROPHYING
The wholesale trade data was positive too on a year-ago basis even if it was showing far more modest gains.

AUCKLAND RATE VALUATION UPDATES DUE
Auckland Council says it is making their long-awaited updates to rating valuations available from tomorrow, and paper notices will be mailed very soon. They says they are "based on property market trends and recent sales activity as of 1 May 2024. Therefore, these valuations are not intended to accurately reflect current market value." rather they become the basis of "fairly" allocating the rating burden. This will affect 630,000 Auckland properties.

NZX50 ENDS HIGHER FOR THE WEEK
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed but showing softish signs so far today. It is up +2.4% for the past week, down -3.8% since the start of the year, but up +5.0% from this time last year. SkyCity casino, Heartland, Freightways, and Auckland Airport lead the gains as The Warehouse , F&P Healthcare, a2 Milk, and Tourism Holdings are the main decliners

WHY THINGS ARE QUIET IN MARKETS TODAY
It is a public holiday in Australia, and still the weekend in the EU and US, so global market signals are very light today.

CHINESE CPI 'STABLE'
China said its CPI price change held at -0.1% of deflation. That is the third month in a rose it has reported that, the fourth recording deflation. It does seem odd, and a tad unlikely, that Chinese consumer prices are consistently deflating at such a low level. Anecdotal observations talk of 'raging price wars'. According to the official data these are having zero impact. Year-on-year they say beef prices are down -0.1%, lamb prices are down -2.8% and milk prices are -1.5% lower. But beef prices did rise in May from April, according to this data.

CHINESE PPI DEFLATES FASTER
Meanwhile Chinese producer prices deflated more, down -3.3% from a year ago to their fastest rate of decline since July 2023.

SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely unchanged. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.32% on Friday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is also unchanged at 4.27%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.69%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps at 4.69% but was up +9 bps to 4.67% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now down -1 bp 4.50%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.3% so far today, and the ASX200 is closed for their holiday. Tokyo is up +1.0% in early Monday trade and US-China rapprochement talk (just talk, no evidence). Hong Kong is up +1.4% at its open on the same vibe while Shanghai is up +0.4%. Singapore has opened up +0.2%. Wall Street may not open tomorrow with the same trade vibe. The S&P500 futures signal little change at present.

OIL ON HOLD
The oil price is unchanged at just on US$64.50/bbl in the US, and just over at US$66.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE UNCHNAGED
The carbon price is holding at NZ$55/NZU. So far today we see bids but no trades. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. So it will fail. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$2/oz from this morning at US$3306/oz.

NZD SLIGHLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this morning, back at 60.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 52.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.3 and up +10 bps..

BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$105,651 and down -0.6% from where we opened this morning. Volatility has again been low at +/-0.7%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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43 Comments

by Yvil | 9th Jun 25, 4:09pm 1749442187

This from Auckland Council about the new CV values out this week:

The movements between the June 2021 and May 2024 CVs for Auckland (by property type):

industrial +5%
lifestyle +4%
rural + 4%
commercial -5%
residential -9%

by Foxglove. | 9th Jun 25, 4:20pm 1749442817

Rather they become the basis for “fairly allocating the rate burden. Maybe so but if so then dispense with the obfuscation that goes into calling it a goods and services charge and recognise that it is levied with the predominant factor in the calculation being based on the value of the property. Accordingly the higher the value the higher the ratio at which the rates are charged. In effect, a wealth tax already up, running and compounding which central government dips into on the same basis at 15% GST. Just come clean and call it what it is - a property tax.

by IT GUY | 9th Jun 25, 5:06pm 1749445569

So LSB that get no water no sewage bugger all footpaths potholes etc will now pay more….. sure that seems fair

still that’s another 150k in wealth

by tis i | 9th Jun 25, 5:44pm 1749447856

Rural properties get a 10% discount do they not?

by IT GUY | 9th Jun 25, 6:27pm 1749450447

My bill does not show any discount? maybe in the calculation?

Still paying $4-5 per green bag of rubbish as well....

still could be worse could be down 9% like central auckland.

by tis i | 9th Jun 25, 9:53pm 1749462800

Had to look it up to make sure it’s still a thing but yes there is a farm and lifestyle differential applied to the general rate calculation as long as the property is outside the urban rating area. Possibly as much as 20% but that seems high.

They love to claw it back in targeted rates though.

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 9th Jun 25, 4:15pm 1749442519

Meanwhile Chinese producer prices deflated more, down -3.3% from a year ago to their fastest rate of decline since July 2023.

Dong Lijuan, chief statistician at the NBS, blamed the steep decline in producer prices on a high base last year and a drop in global prices for oil products and chemicals. Meanwhile, prices of coal and other raw materials at home declined because of ample inventory, furthering dragging down the index, she said in a statement accompanying the data release.

Hope Aussie is taking note here.

Producer prices are now expected to decline 2% this year, worse than the 1.8% previously estimated by the economists, according to a Bloomie survey. The IMF is even lower estimating China’s consumer inflation will average zero this year, the lowest of the almost 200 countries it covers. That would be the weakest reading for China since 2009, when the global financial crisis hammered exports.

Hope Aotearoa and the white gold cheerleaders also taking note.

by Independent_Observer | 9th Jun 25, 4:19pm 1749442789

How re they going to keep their housing market intact (or not get worse..) in this deflationary state? (honest question?)

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 9th Jun 25, 4:24pm 1749443064

No different to Japan I guess. Nevertheless, surplus housing requirements is not necessarily a bad problem to have. Estimates suggest China has enough excess housing to accommodate up to 3 billion people. Bloomie has reported over 500 million square meters of unsold housing stock in 100 major cities as of early 2024.

https://thediplomat.com/2024/09/chinas-property-market-explaining-the-b…

by IT GUY | 9th Jun 25, 5:04pm 1749445464

The funniest thing is there are plenty of buyers with degrees who cannot even afford to pay the deposit

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 9th Jun 25, 5:14pm 1749446085

The funniest thing is there are plenty of buyers with degrees who cannot even afford to pay the deposit

Ripe for nationalization. Remember being in Shanghai in 2009 and someone was telling me about public housing - <USD200 monthly rental fees. Far superior to anything you'd get in Aotearoa.

by Yvil | 9th Jun 25, 5:17pm 1749446230

"Estimates suggest China has enough excess housing to accommodate up to 3 billion people"

That does not sound right, That's all of Europe, North and South America and most of Africa's population combined

by powerdownkiwi | 9th Jun 25, 6:49pm 1749451775

Try apples with apples.

Always helps.

This isn't about whether they HAVE 3 billion people (which would make your comparison valid). It is about whether they can house twice their own current number - and given that they've been on a building/growth frenzy this last 2 decades, that is not unlikely.

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 9th Jun 25, 6:58pm 1749452288

Correct.

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-vacant-homes-3-billion-people-hou…

by IT GUY | 9th Jun 25, 7:07pm 1749452876

Spruiker: I still think prices will go up here....

by Zachary Smith | 9th Jun 25, 7:12pm 1749453155

It could be done if they crammed 40 people into each of the vacant 100 sqm homes.

by Yvil | 9th Jun 25, 9:29pm 1749461375

"It is about whether they can house twice their own current number"

Incorrect, to have an excess housing of 3 billion means housing three times their current population. You guys buy the excess 3 billion housing if you like, I don't.

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 9th Jun 25, 5:02pm 1749445332

Jaguar sold just 49 cars across Europe in April 2025, marking a dramatic 97.5% decline from the 1,961 units sold in April 2024. And yes, that represents the brand’s total new vehicle registrations across Europe and the UK.

https://www.designrush.com/news/jaguar-sold-49-cars-amid-ev-rebrand-dea…

by IT GUY | 9th Jun 25, 5:05pm 1749445511

Bud Light moment

by Foxglove. | 9th Jun 25, 5:15pm 1749446120

One of the greatest European motoring badges of honour undone by mindless disregard and disrespect for all the heritage , style and success that it carried. Bloody shame in truth.

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 9th Jun 25, 5:26pm 1749446801

Also think about the buyer. The I-Pace EV400 R-Dynamic SE starts at €92,870, and the HSE trim at €108,780.

The buyer is a HNWI. But doesn't mean they're not discerning.

by Yvil | 9th Jun 25, 5:22pm 1749446554

Jaguar need a bit more "Jeremy Clarkson" in their ranks

by Yvil | 9th Jun 25, 6:08pm 1749449325

Mayhem in California between anti-emigration protestors and the National Guard. There is barely a day that goes by without drama, controversy, anger, violence and chaos under president Trump. Is this really Making America Great Again ?

by kiwikidsnz | 9th Jun 25, 6:30pm 1749450630

President Donald Trump says he’s deploying 2,000 California National Guard troops to Los Angeles

https://apnews.com/article/insurrection-act-trump-troops-newsom-militar…

We've heard this song before...Ohio 1970

https://youtu.be/GI7-m919ynU?feature=shared 

by IT GUY | 9th Jun 25, 6:30pm 1749450614

A nine news reporter got hit by a rubber bullet on tv live, sounds like its stings from the language used.

by Foxglove. | 9th Jun 25, 6:30pm 1749450634

Made some posts along these lines months ago. It is hardly surprising that such a showdown is happening. There are areas in many of the major cities where English is scarcely spoken and seldom ventured into by either local or state police. In effect, within themselves they are akin to urban fortresses. Going in to root out individuals for deportation is little different to arrest, and the kin will resist and a great percentage of them would feel they have nothing at all to lose in so doing.

by IT GUY | 9th Jun 25, 6:46pm 1749451613

The NZ Police where firing sponge bullets at the boy racers in Levin, its why they dispersed so fast.

It worked quite well.

by powerdownkiwi | 9th Jun 25, 6:57pm 1749452244

I grew up with this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xe-22-BajRA

Same stuff, though. We are watching the biggest hegemony the planet will ever see - disintegrating. As predicted...

by IT GUY | 9th Jun 25, 7:15pm 1749453331

No rubber bullets back then.... choose your poison ....

Kent State

Twenty-eight National Guard soldiers fired about 67 rounds over 13 seconds, killing four students and wounding nine others, one of whom suffered permanent paralysis.

Tiananmen Square

The troops advanced into central parts of Beijing on the city's major thoroughfares in the early morning hours of 4 June and engaged in bloody clashes with demonstrators attempting to block them, in which many people – demonstrators, bystanders, and soldiers – were killed. Estimates of the death toll vary from several hundred to several thousand, with thousands more wounded.

Bloody Sunday Russia

The "protest massacre" in Russia most commonly refers to Bloody Sunday (January 22, 1905), where soldiers opened fire on a peaceful demonstration in St. Petersburg, resulting in the deaths of hundreds. This event is considered a key trigger for the 1905 Revolution

by Foxglove. | 9th Jun 25, 7:15pm 1749453328

Revisit then Mailer, The Naked and the Dead. The hard arsed sergeant Croft in earlier form with a National Guard against an advancing mob of anti strike breakers instead of following orders for a volley over the heads, shot the leader fair square between the eyes.,Well it did stop the riot. That’s how it always has been in the States, and still is.

by IT GUY | 9th Jun 25, 7:17pm 1749453477

Sid Holland’s National government declared a state of emergency on 21 February, warning the following day that New Zealand was ‘at war’. On the 27th, troops were sent onto the Auckland and Wellington wharves to load and unload ships. Emergency regulations imposed strict censorship, gave police sweeping powers of search and arrest, and made it an offence for citizens to assist strikers – even giving food to their children was outlawed.

by Zachary Smith | 9th Jun 25, 7:27pm 1749454051

Hegemony? Fast food hegemony? Movie hegemony? Sit-com hegemony? Number of allies hegemony? Hegemony can refer to a lot of different things. I'd wager it was mostly just cultural hegemony. Nothing remotely like the hegemony of Rome or the colonizing British, French and Spanish empires. America was fabulously "cool".

Amerika

by IT GUY | 9th Jun 25, 7:49pm 1749455377

I prefer (viewer discretion required)

TEAM AMERICA: WORLD POLICE - America, F**K Yeah!

https://youtu.be/rkJaABq_mm4

Any day over the CCP Dystopia.

by IT GUY | 9th Jun 25, 7:03pm 1749452588

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/aucklands-new-cvs-homeowners-face-9-drop…

2 pages of falls but its all ok Great barrier is up....

Oneroof take great lengths to state CVs do not reflect accurate price points

I suggest neither do OneRoof Spruikers...

- The new average CV for Auckland homeowners is $1.29 million, but it's not a current market value indicator.

Your right its lower

- Residential properties fell 9% in value since June 2021, while Great Barrier Island values rose 38%.

Forgot to say only Gt Barrier rose.... as a suburb (see there 2 page info crapic)

- Higher interest rates cooled buyer demand, leading to declines, but median house prices remain above pre-2020 levels.

so they are above end of 2019 levels which is pre 2020 can you just say this?

Thank god the 500 residents of GT barrier are here to save the Auckland market

by rolande | 9th Jun 25, 7:30pm 1749454217

I was surprised it was only "9%" . I wonder if there was any massaging of data to keep it in single figures?

by IT GUY | 9th Jun 25, 7:44pm 1749455071

Its SO Funny if you look at OneRoofs estimate of pooperty you wil find this lower RHS for example Glendowie

Sales in this suburb over the last 12 months have averaged 11.55% below RV

funny how such an irrelevant number is reported on a price estimation page?

its ok 9.9% rounds to 9%

by Averageman | 9th Jun 25, 7:57pm 1749455821

This is a blanket math process to spread rates. Nothing more. Nothing less. That the masses get fired up about CVs is funny. That said it may assist in conditioning the specu public... downwards.

by rolande | 9th Jun 25, 8:13pm 1749456785

Yes, it's blanket within the areas they report on, probably by suburb or part of suburb.

Yes, it's used to spread rates.

But Yes, it's based on recent property sales information. So it's an estimate of value. Right enough for a suburb level, but obviously specific houses can vary.

And because rates are taxed progressively (more expensive houses pay more) CVs need to be fairly accurate.

Also ask the 20,000 or so people who are going to object or their CV. Most will do so because they don't feel it captures all of the value of their house (and to be fair, a small portion will be arguing for a smaller CV to reduce rates )

From Auckland Council site:

How we calculate property values

Values are calculated by mass valuation of properties. Mass valuation means using standard methods to calculate the values of many properties at once, rather than valuing each one individually. This is done by using recent property and sales information. "

by Snow | 10th Jun 25, 5:58am 1749491917

Property valuers in Auckland will be rubbing their hands together.

by Averageman | 9th Jun 25, 7:59pm 1749455958

PS gotta sY the quotes at the bottom of each page is great. Pls never turn it off.

by David Chaston | 9th Jun 25, 8:20pm 1749457215

feel free to suggest new ones.

by IT GUY | 9th Jun 25, 9:43pm 1749462204

you probably have it in there

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”

― Charles MacKay

or

“Many persons grow insensibly attached to that which gives them a great deal of trouble, as a mother often loves her sick and ever-ailing child better than her more healthy offspring.”

or

“Nations, like individuals, cannot become desperate gamblers with impunity. Punishment is sure to overtake them sooner or later.”

or

“the dangerous practice of stock-jobbing, and would divert the genius of the nation from trade and industry. It would hold out a dangerous lure to decoy the unwary to their ruin, by making them part with the earnings of their labour for a prospect of imaginary wealth. The great principle of the project was an evil of first-rate magnitude; it was to raise artificially the value of the stock, by exciting and keeping up a general infatuation, and by promising dividends out of funds which could never be adequate to the purpose.”

by tis i | 10th Jun 25, 6:32am 1749493923

Never trust an internet quote.

-Abraham Lincoln