Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to mortgage rates today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
And there are none here ether. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
MORE SENIORS
The new Parent Boost Visa has potential to almost double the number of older people coming to this country long term, to around +23,000 per year.
MARKING TIME
The May update of ANZ's Truckometer monitoring isn't showing any green-shoot indications. Rather is is more uninspiring marking time.
WALLETS NOT OPENING MUCH
ANZ's monitoring of card spending shows it fell -0.1% in May from April (on a seasonally adjusted, 3-month average basis). Spending is up +1.1% compared to the same time last year. Durables spending is recovering but apparel and hospitality spending remains soft, though the annual decline is easing for these categories.
WORKING MORE
The latest release of data from the 2023 Census shows we are joining the workforce earlier and continuing to work later in life. In 2023, 66% of people aged 15 to 29 years were employed, up from just under 57% in 2013. Teenagers in the 15 to 19-year age group contributed the most to this increase. At the other end of life, more than 24% of adults aged 65 and older were employed in part time or full time work, up from 22% in 2013, with the largest increase being for people aged 70 to 74 years.
HIGHLY MOBILE
We are also moving around more, with 2.2 million people moving address within the country between 2018 and 2023. And we have tended to migrate South. In 2023, at least 4% of the population of each region in the South Island lived in the North Island in 2018. Otago had the highest rate of inter-island migration for any region, with almost 10% of the 2023 population having lived in the North Island in 2018. In contrast, less than 2% of the 2023 population in most North Island regions lived in the South Island in 2018. Wellington was the only region in the North Island where more than 2% of 2023 residents had lived in the South Island in 2018 (2.6%).
LESS CARBON FARMING
The Government has introduced legislation that will put a stop to large-scale farm-to-forestry conversions, "to protect the future of New Zealand food production". While it is understandable, it is rare for center-right governments to restrict the property-right options of their core supporters. Older farmers who are close to selling up will be hoping this doesn't depress the value of their business.
NZX50 INCHES HIGHER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is marginally higher so far today. It is up +0.2% from yesterday, but up +1.9% for the past week, down -3.9% since the start of the year. It is up +6.6% from this time last year. Gains are led by Scales, Oceania, Argosy, and Spark. SkyCity casino, Kathmandu, Ryman, and Tourism Holdings are the big decliners.
EYES ON THE PULSE
There is a dairy Pulse auction tomorrow for WMP and SMP, and all indications are for little-change in SMP prices, but softness in WMP prices.
FIDDLING AT THE EDGES
In something of an odd request, the Minister of Finance is asking the RBNZ to have 'more meetings', by scheduling a rate review over the summer break. The reason, she told Bloomberg, is that the Bank of England (among other northern hemisphere central banks) meets in January. It's kind of hard to follow her logic, especially as the RBNZ has a history of calling an extra meeting in the summer break if it is clearly necessary. She says she wants the additional meeting so that the Bank can 'respond to changes in the economy' over the period. It's not a great look to expect them to bail out an economy running on policies led by her.
'CAUTIOUS PESSIMISM'
In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey wasn't particularly upbeat, coming in little-changed in June from May. But at least it isn't going backwards. Aussie consumers remain relatively averse to real estate as an investment option and to risk in general. Indeed, responses to a question on the ‘wisest place for savings’ suggest that the tariff-related turmoil this year has seen what was already a high level of risk aversion intensify even further.
CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM, BUT ...
And staying in Australia, the closely-watched NAB business sentiment survey has improved marginally, recording its first positive reading in four months. But, business conditions weakened in this survey and it will be hard for sentiment to improve if business conditions get weaker. Those weaker conditions came from ongoing profitability pressures and soft demand, with signs of a further softening in labour demand.
SWAP RATES ON STILL HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.31% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.31%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.69%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 4.67% but was down -3 bps to 4.64% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now down -1 bp to 4.49%.
EQUITIES DRIFT
The NZX50 is little-changed, up +0.1% so far today, but the ASX200 is up +0.8% in a post-holiday gain. Tokyo is up another +1.0% in early Tuesday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.2% at its open while Shanghai is up the same. Singapore has opened down -0.1%. Wall Street started its week with a whimper with the S&P500 up a minor +0.1% on all this uncertainty
OIL UP
The oil price is up +US$1 at just on US$65.50/bbl in the US, and just over at US$67.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE FIRMER
The carbon price is up +$1.50 at NZ$56.50/NZU but only on limited trading volumes. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. So it will fail. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$2/oz from yesterday at US$3308/oz.
NZD SLIGHLY FIRMER AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday at 60.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 53 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.4 and up +10 bps..
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$109,472 and up +3.6% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at +/-2.4%.
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11 Comments
Sydney now has the most unaffordable housing in the world when measured by taking the median house price over the median income.
It was second for years, but Hong Kong’s prices have recently come down whilst Sydney’s have risen to a ratio of 14.7.
Anything over 9.0 is considered ‘impossibly unaffordable’, with the Australian average at over 9.7.
Biggest surprise for me is Adelaide where house prices have risen 3x more than income over the past 10 years.
The mighty Alan Kohler reports:
Could spell the end of the gold price run:
A deposit of gold ore recently discovered in China isn’t just giant. It’s supergiant. So much so, in fact, that Chinese experts claim it could be the largest deposit of any precious metal—not just gold ore—in existence today.
How big is the “supergiant” deposit located under the Wangu gold field in the Hunan province? Experts estimate it at 1,100 tons.
According to Chinese state media, a team of geologists detected over 40 gold veins of roughly 330 tons of gold ore dipping 6,600 feet deep under Pingjiang County’s Wangu gold field. But 3D modeling blows that number out of the water, showing there could be as much as 1,100 tons as deep as 9,800 feet. If the models are accurate, the deposit in its entirely could be worth roughly $83 billion.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a64929203/china-supergiant-gol…
Although some of the commenters are a bit skeptical on the honesty of the story (issued by Chinese State Media).
I like this comment by BerryBear:
Everything in China is based on corruption and cheating, from the roving gangs of old people who steal anything not nailed down to the highest levels of the CCP. The chances of China suddenly finding the richest gold deposit known to mankind as the nations financial system spirals out of control is infinitesimal. It's almost certainly just more propaganda to try and convince the world that they are prospering and not to pay attention to all the burning businesses.
Let's wait and see. China is already the world's top gold producer (380 metric tons in 2024), followed by Russia (310) and Aussie (290). Assuming it were true, good for BTC.
While it is understandable, it is rare for center-right governments to restrict the property-right options of their core supporters.
Especially since the stated aim of the replacement RMA will be to emphasize the primacy of private property rights.
Yes but in direct conflict with say the ACC Unitary plan.... which has greenies all over it... they want no growth on the fringes and everything around the bus train hubs.... Its going to get interesting. its a local council vs central fight.
...the Council "greenies" can't even get their own stories straight - as Collins said, they're all frankly bonkers
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/26-05-2025/auckland-council-keeps-try…
Collins calling someone bonkers?
I needed some humour.
But, once the new legislation comes into force - the ACC Unitary Plan (along with all operative plans written under the RMA NZ-wide) will need to be re-written in accordance with the new legislation.
That said, Labour's replacement RMA Bill provided for a 10 year transition period, I think.
The transition provisions of National's go at it will be of interest. We haven't seen any draft legislation yet, so they are going to need to get that out quite quickly.
They aren't going to be cohesive. Firstly, they aren't collectively smart. Secondly, what they are attempting (another growth doubling-time on an already over-tapped planet - is impossible. Thirdly, the fallout from (2) and most global leaders being (1), will wash over them before they get very far.
You oly have to note the recent dollar-shovelling into tourism, to see how desperate things are just under the surface.
As to the cohesive bit - when 'property rights' impinge on other properties (effectively reducing their 'rights' - better called amenities)? They be rejected by more than support them (it will impinge more than it elevates). Fools in a past paradigm.
They aren't going to be cohesive. Firstly, they aren't collectively smart. Secondly, what they are attempting (another growth doubling-time on an already over-tapped planet - is impossible. Thirdly, the fallout from (2) and most global leaders being (1), will wash over them before they get very far.
You only have to note the recent dollar-shovelling into tourism, to see how desperate things are just under the surface.
As to the cohesive bit - when 'property rights' impinge on other properties (effectively reducing their 'rights' - better called amenities)? They be rejected by more than support them (it will impinge more than it elevates). Fools in a past paradigm.
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