Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
China Construction Bank cut floating and fixed rates today. CCB now have the lowest six month fixed rate, and have a sub-5% three year rate, both market leading. WBS cut its floating rate. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are none here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
A MAY TUMBLE
Asking prices on Trade Me Property took a tumble in May, down -1.2% nationally from April and for a second month in a row. But earlier gains meant they are still +5.0% higher than year-ago levels.
WHO PAYS?
The taxpayer-backed RBNZ-administered Depositor Compensation Scheme will go into effect in 17 days on July 1, 2025. We take a deep dive into how it will be funded, "who pays".
A SHARP MAY RETREAT
After four months of expansion, there was a sharp negative correction in the May factory PMI. Worse, the biggest retreat was for new orders.
NZX50 SLIPS ENDS WEEK WEAK
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is softer so far today on war risk aversion. It is down -0.7% from yesterday, down -0.2% for the past week. It is down -3.9% since the start of the year although up +5.8% from this time last year.
POLLING UPDATE
The latest Taxpayers Union/Curia political opinion poll suggests support for National is slipping. It shows Labour would now be the largest party in Parliament, gaining three seats to 44. But the Coalition would still just about cling on to power on these numbers. The poll, conducted between June 7-9 shows National drop -1.1 points on last month to 33.5%, while Labour are up +1.6 points to 34.8%. ACT is down 0.4 points to 9.1%, while the Greens are down -0.9 points to 8.2%. New Zealand First also drops -1.3 points to 6.1%, and Te Pāti Māori is down 0.6 points to 3.3%. TOP is up +1.3 points to 1.8%.
TRANS-TASMAN TRAVEL
April inbound tourism data was out today revealing their largest market is New Zealand. Almost one in five of their tourist visitors are Kiwi. That had 641,150 short-term trips were recorded, an increase of +48,050 (+8.1%) compared with April 2024. But that was -8.5% lower than the pre-COVID level in April 2019. Visitors from New Zealand accounted for 19% of all arrivals (123,950 trips in). 131,360 Aussies returned from New Zealand in the month.
'CREDIT REPAIR SERVICE' AS PARASITE
In Australia, firms that provide debt management services (including firms offering ‘debt negotiation’ or ‘credit repair’ services) are regulated. ASIC has signaled it is going after those that prey on the vulnerable who seek their help. It has cancelled the license of 'Solve My Debt Now', for allegedly engaging in unconscionable conduct, and making misleading representations.
ISRAEL ATTACKS MORE THAN JUST PALESTINIANS
The "pre-emptive" attack by Israel on Iran today is roiling markets. Some details are set out below, but in summary the S&P500 futures suggests it will take -1.7% off Wall Street prices when that equity market opens tomorrow, gold has jumped sharply (+1.9%), oil prices have risen sharply (+13%), and the USD has stayed down, not getting the 'safety' premium usual when these sorts of geopolitical events happen.
SWAP RATES MAY DIP SLIGHTLY
Wholesale swap rates are likely a touch lower today, and more at the longer end. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. Notice it isn't falling. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.31% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps at 4.16%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.69%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 4.56% and was down -7 bps at 4.54% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now down -7 bps to 4.33%.
EQUITIES DROP ON WAR SPREAD
The NZX50 is down -0.9% so far today on spreading risk aversion following the Israeli attack on Iran. The ASX200 is down -0.3% so far in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.3% in early Friday trade. Hong Kong is down -0.9% at its open while Shanghai is down -0.8%. Singapore has opened down -0.5%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +0.4%. After it closed the Israelis attacked and the futures market immediately then dropped -1.4%. As we publish it is down -1.7%.
OIL SHOOTS UP +13%
The oil price is up almost +US$9 at just under US$76.50/bbl in the US, and just over US$77.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price is holding at NZ$56.76/NZU on a few trades. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. So it will fail. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMER AGAIN, NEARS RECORD HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$65/oz from yesterday at US$3437/oz and almost at the record high reached on April 22. (Silver is not getting the same love.)
NZD HANGS IN THERE
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at 60.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at just on 93 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 52.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.1 and little-changed.
BITCOIN TAKES FRIGHT
The bitcoin price is now at US$103,770 and down -4.3% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just under +/-2.4%.
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14 Comments
"The US said Israel had taken "unilateral action" without American support. The US had earlier pledged it would not militarily support an Israeli attack, and warned Iran not to strike US assets in retaliation."
Implausible deniability which wilfully ignores the annual billions in military aid the USA funds to Israel.
Live: Top Iranian commanders killed in Israeli strikes, retaliation expected | Stuff
The past exchanges have been tempered by Iran only doing what was necessary to save face. This time though they have little choice other than to retaliate with whatever they have got. Like Putin, Israel with nuclear weaponry, holds the big card and would likewise justify use thereof in the face of a perceived existential threat. That deterrent holds all Israel’s surrounding enemies at bay. A rather large contribution as to why no Arabic nation has come to the rescue of Hamas. Israel cannot countenance any prospect that its ace hand be negated. There it is.
Too near-at-hand for nuclear from Israel.
And Iran only wants it because it levels the playing-field with the big players.
Watch the other players - sooner or later the Arab-for-Arab sympathy on the street will force leaders to align with Iran rather than cosy up to the US. The fact that the US is disintegrating, and the fact that its previous pals are eschewing it - will add to that pressure.
Masada.
Exactly. One of those countries already has nukes and it's not Iran. I don't think any mainstream media ever mention this. They don't even mention proliferation in the middle east, as it might lead to a discussion on the Israeli nukes.
It is quite obvious that USA new of the strikes in advance. That is why they diverted 20000 air defense missiles to the Middle East from Ukraine.
When BTC goes it will really go. Nothing like a crisis to actually see what's under the hood - i.e nothing
When BTC goes it will really go. Nothing like a crisis to actually see what's under the hood - i.e nothing
Altcoins rag dolled. Ratty back to last week's prices. Would love to see BTC hammered down below 70K. We would likely need a financial crisis for that to happen as BTC is now captured by institutions. Retail has been dead for a long time. The institutional buyers are in control and need to grab as much as they can to hock off to the boomers (while not letting them actually own it).
Germany’s iconic machine makers used to be among the loudest cheerleaders for ever-closer economic ties between China and Europe. Now, as exports dwindle and face “increasingly strong [Chinese] competitors” beefed up by “unfair state subsidies”, the industry is demanding that Brussels put in place trade barriers to protect it.
“The EU should impose countervailing duties on imports from third countries if they violate EU anti-dumping or anti-subsidy rules. China is a particular focus here with its aggressive export policy,” read the VDMA’s paper.
The industry group – whose 3,600 members make everything from power transmission systems and machine tools to semiconductor machines and precision tools – made clear that it was ready to compete with Chinese rivals on a level playing field. However, it was also unequivocal that it feels those conditions do not exist and that it wants governments to intervene.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3314268/cheerleaders-…
Trump calls Fed Chief/Chair, Powell, a numbskull for not dropping interest rates, suddenly oil prices going through the roof. If it stays high, who's the numbskull?
Correlation?
Oil is about Middle East scariness, not the Fed.
Powell was reluctant to drop interest rates due to inflation coming back, not just inflation caused by tariffs. His approach was conservative. Oil prices increases can help cause inflation too.
Yes sustained $100 Oil and we are back to 5% plus inflation..
Wars, deglobalistion and weather related destruction is very inflationary.
Hold your hats!
"" Once on par with Scandinavian economies in the 1970s, we now produce around 40 percent less output per hour than Denmark, Finland, or Sweden. While those countries have lifted productivity through sustained investment in innovation-led sectors, New Zealand has relied more heavily on labour force expansion and inward migration.""
https://newsroom.co.nz/2025/06/14/nzs-economy-is-not-underperforming-by…
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