Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
China Construction Bank cut floating and fixed rates today. CCB now have the lowest six month fixed rate, and have a sub-5% three year rate, both market leading. WBS cut its floating rate. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are none here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
A MAY TUMBLE
Asking prices on Trade Me Property took a tumble in May, down -1.2% nationally from April and for a second month in a row. But earlier gains meant they are still +5.0% higher than year-ago levels.
WHO PAYS?
The taxpayer-backed RBNZ-administered Depositor Compensation Scheme will go into effect in 17 days on July 1, 2025. We take a deep dive into how it will be funded, "who pays".
A SHARP MAY RETREAT
After four months of expansion, there was a sharp negative correction in the May factory PMI. Worse, the biggest retreat was for new orders.
NZX50 SLIPS ENDS WEEK WEAK
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is softer so far today on war risk aversion. It is down -0.7% from yesterday, down -0.2% for the past week. It is down -3.9% since the start of the year although up +5.8% from this time last year.
POLLING UPDATE
The latest Taxpayers Union/Curia political opinion poll suggests support for National is slipping. It shows Labour would now be the largest party in Parliament, gaining three seats to 44. But the Coalition would still just about cling on to power on these numbers. The poll, conducted between June 7-9 shows National drop -1.1 points on last month to 33.5%, while Labour are up +1.6 points to 34.8%. ACT is down 0.4 points to 9.1%, while the Greens are down -0.9 points to 8.2%. New Zealand First also drops -1.3 points to 6.1%, and Te Pāti Māori is down 0.6 points to 3.3%. TOP is up +1.3 points to 1.8%.
TRANS-TASMAN TRAVEL
April inbound tourism data was out today revealing their largest market is New Zealand. Almost one in five of their tourist visitors are Kiwi. That had 641,150 short-term trips were recorded, an increase of +48,050 (+8.1%) compared with April 2024. But that was -8.5% lower than the pre-COVID level in April 2019. Visitors from New Zealand accounted for 19% of all arrivals (123,950 trips in). 131,360 Aussies returned from New Zealand in the month.
'CREDIT REPAIR SERVICE' AS PARASITE
In Australia, firms that provide debt management services (including firms offering ‘debt negotiation’ or ‘credit repair’ services) are regulated. ASIC has signaled it is going after those that prey on the vulnerable who seek their help. It has cancelled the license of 'Solve My Debt Now', for allegedly engaging in unconscionable conduct, and making misleading representations.
ISRAEL ATTACKS MORE THAN JUST PALESTINIANS
The "pre-emptive" attack by Israel on Iran today is roiling markets. Some details are set out below, but in summary the S&P500 futures suggests it will take -1.7% off Wall Street prices when that equity market opens tomorrow, gold has jumped sharply (+1.9%), oil prices have risen sharply (+13%), and the USD has stayed down, not getting the 'safety' premium usual when these sorts of geopolitical events happen.
SWAP RATES MAY DIP SLIGHTLY
Wholesale swap rates are likely a touch lower today, and more at the longer end. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. Notice it isn't falling. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.31% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps at 4.16%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.69%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 4.56% and was down -7 bps at 4.54% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now down -7 bps to 4.33%.
EQUITIES DROP ON WAR SPREAD
The NZX50 is down -0.9% so far today on spreading risk aversion following the Israeli attack on Iran. The ASX200 is down -0.3% so far in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.3% in early Friday trade. Hong Kong is down -0.9% at its open while Shanghai is down -0.8%. Singapore has opened down -0.5%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +0.4%. After it closed the Israelis attacked and the futures market immediately then dropped -1.4%. As we publish it is down -1.7%.
OIL SHOOTS UP +13%
The oil price is up almost +US$9 at just under US$76.50/bbl in the US, and just over US$77.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price is holding at NZ$56.76/NZU on a few trades. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. So it will fail. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMER AGAIN, NEARS RECORD HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$65/oz from yesterday at US$3437/oz and almost at the record high reached on April 22. (Silver is not getting the same love.)
NZD HANGS IN THERE
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at 60.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at just on 93 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 52.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.1 and little-changed.
BITCOIN TAKES FRIGHT
The bitcoin price is now at US$103,770 and down -4.3% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just under +/-2.4%.
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This soil moisture chart is animated here.
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