What happened Thursday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday: Rabobank trims TD rates, TSB profit rises, BNZ launches no-interest no-paperwork SME loan, high demand for NZGBs, growing commercial premise vacancies, swaps soft, NZD firm, & more

[updated]

26th Jun 25, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank reduced its rates for between 6 and 15 months. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

TSB PROFIT RISES, EYES EVOLUTION INTO 'DIGITAL FIRST BANK'
TSB's March-year net profit after tax rose 21% to $41.2 million as operating income rose 4% to $208.9 million and operating expenses fell 2% to $149.7 million. Gross lending increased to $7.7 billion from $7.5 billion. Chairman Mark Darrow says TSB; "is now in a strong position to evolve into a digital-first bank that delivers on the expectations of modern consumers and businesses, while staying true to our customer-first values and high-quality service."

WHAT'S AN EXTRA BEDROOM WORTH?
The value gap between three and four bedroom homes ranges from $97,000 in Ruapehu, to $601,000 in central Auckland. This value gap between three and four bedroom homes declined over the last year.

MERCHANT FLEXI LOAN
BNZ has launched a new unsecured loan of up to $50,000, offering eligible businesses "a simple way to manage cash flow and fuel growth, with no interest and just a one-off fee". They say there is no need to provide paperwork like financial statements or business plans. Instead, they use actual card sales data from the past 12 months to determine loan eligibility and calculate a personalised loan offer. Repayments can be between 10% and 30% of daily card sales, and are automatically deducted. So repayments are higher when sales are strong and lower when business is quieter. We asked BNZ for an example. They said a $50,000 loan would attract a $2000 fee in lieu of interest with the repayment rate at 10% of daily sales over a 6 month term. $2000 of $50,000 for six months is like 8% per year. But if the repayment is even over the six months, this calculator suggests the effective rate is 13.6%. That is still a good rate for an unsecured business loan.

NZX50 STILL ON HOLD
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed today, but down -1.3% for the past week. It is down -4.7% since the start of the year although up +5.3% from this time last year. Kathmandu, Channel Infrastructure, Vital Healthcare Property and EBOS read the gainers. Restaurant Brands, Fletcher Building, NZME and Chorus lead the decliners.

EARLY JUDGEMENT NOT POSITIVE
Yesterday we noted Xero's NZ$4.1 bln bid for US payments business Melio. Today we can note that Xero's ASX-listed share opened -7.4% lower.

THEY REALLY LIKED THE APRIL 2029 BOND
There were 108 bids at today's NZGB bond auctions and bidders stumped up with almost $1.9 mln in bids. But only 33 bids won any of the $450 mln available. The $225 mln April 2029 bond was especially popular, attracting $1.275 bln in bids alone, so more that five times oversubscribed.

LICENSE CANCELLED
The FMA has cancelled Filcare Services (Filcare) Financial Advice Provider licence. Filcare held a full financial advice provider licence, providing financial advice to approximately 1,800 retail clients, many of whom were migrant workers from the Filipino community. Filcare’s cancellation follows the termination of its distribution agreement with Fidelity Life and AIA and the FMA's inquiry into its affairs.

LOTS OF VACANT OFFICES
The realestate.co.nz portal now shows 24,000 commercial premises "for lease". That's its highest level of 2025. Worryingly 14,000 of those are in Auckland, also a 2025 high. That's 58% of the national level. Almost 4000 are in central Auckland.

FEW FARMS AVAILABLE
Similarly, we track the number of farms listed for sale on the same portal. The current 132 is similar to the seasonal lows over the past few years - except we aren't at the usual low point in the farm selling year - that is almost always at the end of September. Low farm availability probably points to the fact that farming is a comparatively "good business" compared to the alternatives nationally.

DEBT STRESS STARTS TO SHOW
And while we are noting data shifts, this chart reached a post-pandemic milestone at the end of May.

SWAP RATES STILL SOFT
Wholesale swap rates are likely softer again today but in a smaller shift. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 3.30% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.13%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.65%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 4.53% but was down -1 bp at 4.52% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now down -3 bps from this time yesterday, back to 4.27%.

EQUITIES MIXED & MINOR
The NZX50 is now up +0.1% so far today on still-weak sentiment. The ASX200 is down -0.2% in Thursday afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.0% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong is down -0.4% at its open while Shanghai is unchanged. Singapore has also opened unchanged. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session little-changed on the S&P500 and in quite a hesitant mood.

OIL PRICES HOLD
The oil price is unchanged at just over US$65.50/bbl and now just under US$68 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE ON HOLD
The carbon price is unchanged at NZ$59/NZU but that is only because we can't find any trades today. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint. For reference, the EU carbon price is €71 today.

GOLD RISES TRACKING USD FALL
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$10/oz from yesterday at US$3338/oz.

NZD FIRMER AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday at 60.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at just on 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 51.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.2 and up +10 bps.

BITCOIN RISES AGAIN, BUT LESS THIS TIME
The bitcoin price is now at US$107,982 and up another +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has still been low though, remaining at just on +/-0.9%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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11 Comments

by Foxglove. | 26th Jun 25, 4:14pm 1750911240

Farming is a comparatively “good business.” Perhaps, or perhaps not depending on the region and limitations of the pasture thereon. Hans Brink made accurate comment on here the other day, that the once lucrative position of the SI high country for sheep farming is in continuing decline as the annual decrease in NZ flock numbers further demonstrate. There are a number of very large historical stations as such. What alternative viable land use can be introduced is the big question.

by tis i | 26th Jun 25, 5:33pm 1750915988

Is an ‘alternative viable land use’ necessary?

by Foxglove. | 26th Jun 25, 5:58pm 1750917509

Not absolutely by any means and that may be well be the ultimate answer in itself. However not so long ago Helen Clark’s government intervened to purchase the St James Station in the Lewis Pass region. That was all a bit strange because it was then still leasehold land owned by the Crown. Unfortunately the land, now usually open to the public for all recreational purposes, has resultantly fallen to a standard of maintenance much lower than that kept by the previous owner and that problem is exacerbated by wind borne gorse, broom, lupin, pine and more, from land on the north and east boundaries.

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 26th Jun 25, 4:30pm 1750912235

News has come out about Graeme Clegg (founder and Chairman of New Image International) has come out. Clegg was detained for months in Vietnam. Vietnamese authorities blocked his departure due to an unpaid $2.4 million civil court order linked to a long-running legal dispute involving allegations of intellectual property theft related to his colostrum-based health products. The dispute centered on claims that a Vietnamese entity had unlawfully used New Image’s proprietary information to market similar products.

During his detention, Clegg, who's now 85, was diagnosed with colon cancer, intensifying concerns about his health and safety. He remained in a hotel in Ho Chi Minh City for nearly two months, appealing for urgent intervention from New Zealand officials to facilitate his return for medical treatment.

https://www.kapitales.co.nz/articles/trending/new-image-group-founder-d…

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 26th Jun 25, 8:34pm 1750926875

Don't really want to draw attention to the Taxpayer's Union, even though I share some of their philosophical bend, but this is appalling and I think representative of some of the problems we have in Aotearoa, particularly as it applies to entitlement. And why are they using Apple products? Oppo devices would be more cost effective.

The Taxpayers’ Union can reveal through an Official Information Act response that the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) has lost or had stolen 280 taxpayer-funded iPhones and iPads over the last three financial years.

With 258 missing iPhones and 22 iPads, that is almost two devices going missing every single week. Based on MBIE’s estimates, the average replacement cost per device is $490, putting the bill at $137,200.

https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/mbie_137k_fiasco 

by Speedmax | 26th Jun 25, 6:12pm 1750918377

Surely there are bigger issues to worry about

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 26th Jun 25, 6:23pm 1750918988

Disagree. If entitlement is across the pyramid, you have a problem. We're not talking Post-It notes.

by Foxglove. | 26th Jun 25, 6:23pm 1750919026

Undoubtedly but then again unchecked pilfering and/or carelessness is hardly a shining example of either self discipline or respect being foremost in the culture of one of NZ’s largest public service entities.