A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rate changes, consumer sentiment still weak, mortgage switching at all-time high, business results show low returns, swaps firmish, NZD stays elevated, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

'A WINTRY SUNRISE'?
Although the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan survey of consumer sentiment lifted in June, it remains negative. But it was a "welcome bounce" after a fall last month. The proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item (the best retail indicator) lifted 3 points, but it’s still very soft. Inflation expectations lifted 0.3pts to 4.9%, the highest since April 2023. That’s probably got quite a lot to do with food price inflation, which is running at 4.4%.

MORTGAGE SWITCHING HITS ALL-TIME HIGH
There was more evidence today that those with high mortgage balances are more likely to switch banks when their fixed rate comes up for review. The average value of a mortgage switched is now $685,500 whereas the average value of a mortgage for a house purchase is $589,000. (And just because we looked, the average value of a mortgage top-up is $107,500 - a nice new car?, a bathroom upgrade?). At 3184, May 2025 was the most mortgage switching we have seen from this C33 data that started in 2017. However the volume of top-ups and new purchases is very much lower.

RECENT SURGE BRINGS PROFITABILITY
DairyNZ’s latest Econ Tracker update shows a +3.2% rise in the forecast breakeven milk price for the 2025/26 season to $8.68/kgMS (from $8.41 in the season just ended), driven by increases in essential on-farm costs, while still indicating a positive season ahead overall. (We should probably note that $7.83 was the base payout price in the 2023/24 season so that season would have been a serious struggle at last year's prices.)

A TRILLION IN REVENUES, LOW RETURNS
For the record, StatsNZ released its 2024 Annual Enterprise Survey today. It is a comprehensive source of financial statistics covering more than 500,000 businesses. For the 2024 financial year, compared with the 2023 financial year it reports total income increased by +$51 billion (+5.5%) to $980 bln, businesses earned $108 bln in operating surplus before income tax, up +4.9%. Total assets increased by $99 bln to $2.9 tln. Businesses made a 4% return on assets – unchanged from 2023.

NZX50 MOVES UP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.6% today, but down -0.3% for the past week. It is down -4.0% since the start of the year although up +7.1% from this time last year. Oceania, Infratil, Spark, and Argosy bounce, Kathmandu, Mercury, SkyCity casino and a2 Milk ease

BETTER BUT STILL UNDERPERFORMING VS PEERS
Challenger bank TSB said its March-year profit jumped by $6.7 million on "simplified operations" to $57.6 mln before tax and $41.2 mln after tax. That is an ROE of 5.2%. TSB will pay $15 mln of dividends to its owner, Taranaki-based community charity Toi Foundation, for the year.

CHINESE INDUSTRY STUCK IN LOW GEAR
In China, deflationary pressures not helped by the tariff war are keeping China's industrial profits in a low zone. They barely hit ¥600 bln in May and that was their lowest level for a May month since 2019 and -9.1% lower than May 2024. For the five months they were down -1.1% so the pace of decline is unfortunately building.

SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are likely firmish today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.29% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp at 4.14%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.65%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 4.54% but was down -2 bps at 4.50% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now down -1 bp from this time yesterday, back to 4.26% and its lowest since early May..

EQUITIES MOSTLY FIRMER
The NZX50 is now up +0.6% so far today. The ASX200 is unchanged in Friday afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.6% in early Friday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.4% at its open while Shanghai is unchanged again. Singapore has also opened up +0.6%. Wall Street ended its Thursday session up +0.8% on the S&P500 and near new highs.

OIL PRICES HOLD
The oil price is again unchanged at just over US$65.50/bbl and now just under US$68 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE ON HOLD
The carbon price is unchanged at NZ$59/NZU but that is only because we can't find any trades today. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint. For reference, the EU carbon price is €71 today.

GOLD RETREATS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$29/oz from yesterday at US$3309/oz.

NZD HOLDS HIGH
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at 60.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at just on 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.2 and little-changed.

BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$107,373 and down -0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility has still been low too, now at just on +/-0.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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