Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ has launched a surprise (well, a surprise to us) +15 bps rise in their one year term deposit rate, taking it up to 4.00%. That rate will apply until July 23, 2025. Treasury has cut rates for most terms for its guaranteed Kiwi Bonds. Details here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
IT DEPENDS WHERE YOU ARE
Cotality says housing value changes show regional variability. Median dwelling values are flat in Auckland and Wellington, but up in Hamilton, Tauranga, Christchurch and Dunedin.
OUT OF THE SAVINGS HABIT
Household dis-saving got worse by $392 mln in the March 2025 quarter, as household spending increased to $62.2 bln (up +2.2%) while net disposable income rose +1.5% to $60.6 bln. That means savings shrank -$1.6 bln in the quarter. For the year to March, it was a shrinkage of -$5.6 bln in savings. Negative saving can be funded by borrowing and/or drawing on existing funds. The Q1 +2.2% increase in spending was driven by spending on entertainment, digital services imports, accommodation, motor vehicles, and clothing, StatsNZ said. We have now had 13 consecutive quarters of dis-saving.
COMMODITY PRICES DIP
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell -2.3% in June from May as lower dairy product prices started to appear. The NZD Commodity Price Index fell -3.4% on the same basis as a weaker greenback magnified the dip..
DEEP IN THE HOLE
The Crown Accounts for the eleven months to May show little improvement, and in fact the Government's own trading enterprises (the SOEs) are reporting weakening results. The majority of the key fiscal indicators for these eleven month accounts were slightly better than forecast. The Government’s main operating indicator, the operating balance before gains and losses excluding ACC (OBEGALx), showed a deficit of -$7.9 bln. This was $0.2 billion smaller than forecast. While the core Crown results were favourable to forecast this was largely offset by weaker results from State-owned Enterprise, Treasury noted. Desantising the OBEGALx, we find the OBEGAL is now a deficit of -$12.3 bln and the raw Operating Balance a deficit of -$3.9 bln, (aided by rising investment asset values).
CAR SALES PICK UP.
Meanwhile, car sales had a positive uptick in June. Sales on new cars and SUV’s totaled 8,245 in the month; compared with 6,817 in May and a nearly +36% increase on 6,059 sales in June 2024. The industry body attributes the June rise to the Government's Investment Boost Initiative. Interestingly, Tesla had a good month in June with a total of 407 sales boosted by pre-orders of the newly launched Model Y.
NZX50 RISES
It's a tough day on the NZX. As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.8% so far today, but up +1.6% for the past week. It is now down -3.0% since the start of the year although up +7.5% from this time last year. The Warehouse, Freightways, Mercury and Vector post gains, but market heavyweight F&P Healthcare, SkyCity casino, Channel Infrastructure and Tower lead the decliners.
'RIVERS OF GOLD' RUN SLOWER
Surprising analysts who expected a +AU$5 bln monthly trade surplus, the actual Australian trade surplus for May came in at half that level, to its lowest level in five years. May exports fell faster, down -2.7% from April while May imports rose faster, up +3.8% from April. Interestingly, exports of gold are down -3.4% in May from a year ago - and that is in AU$ terms, not volume.
NOT WHAT WAS EXPECTED
And analysts had expected the Caixin services PMI for China to maintain its small but steady expansion. But it weakened. Not a lot, and it is still expanding, but it will be disconcerting all the same. And it is now at a nine month low.
SWAP RATES MIXED
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed again today, perhaps firmer for longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp to 3.28% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.18%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.55% and was up +6 bps at 4.55% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now up +1 bp from yesterday at 4.26%.
EQUITIES QUITE MIXED
The NZX50 is now down -0.8% so far today. The ASX200 is down -0.4% in Thursday afternoon trade. Tokyo is down a minor -0.1% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong is however down a full -1.0% at its open while Shanghai is little-changed. Singapore has opened down -0.1%. Wall Street rose in Wednesday trade with the S&P500 closing up +0.5% to a new record high.
OIL PRICES UP
The oil price is +US$1.50 firmer at just under US$67/bbl and just on US$68.50 for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE DIPS
The carbon price has has fallen -$1.50 to NZ$57/NZU as some trades emerge. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$15/oz from time yesterday, now at US$3349/oz.
NZD RETREATS
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday at 60.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at just on 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 51.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.1 and down -20 bps.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$108,750 and up +2.7% from yesterday. Volatility has been modest, now at just under +/-1.7%.
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12 Comments
Del Monte Foods files for bankruptcy. Nothing lasts forever.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/02/food/del-monte-foods-bankruptcy
Not even Japanese housewives.
"Demographics have also caught up with financial arrangements. According to government figures, an estimated 17.4mn Japanese, or 14 per cent of the current population, are forecast to die between now and 2035. That implies an inheritance avalanche the likes of which the country has never experienced. Money will move with velocity between generations, between financial institutions and potentially between international markets: the heirs do not reliably stow wealth where their parents did"
https://www.ft.com/content/d742fa39-e55e-4b76-b7f7-b8d40775d936?_gl=1*1…
Japanese households allocate approximately half of their total financial assets to cash and deposits. Cash and deposits totaled 1,134 trillion yen, which is about 51% of the JPY2,230 trillion in total household financial assets.
In Aotearoa, wealth is overwhelmingly locked in the Ponzi. We think we're clever and the Japanese stupid.
https://english.news.cn/asiapacific/20250321/209b1024d93c42e3b7977c0bbc…
The US M2 money supply reached a record $21.94 trillion in May 2025, a yoy increase of 4.5%, the highest annual growth rate in nearly three years - this surpasses the previous peak of $21.86 trillion set in March 2022, and it represents the 19th consecutive monthly increase.
Inflation-adjusted M2 money supply rose 2.1% yoy last month, also the largest increase since early 2022.
So M2 money supply has risen nearly USD7 trillion, or ~45%.
USD purchasing power is being crushed.
"US President Donald Trump has called for the chair of the Federal Reserve to quit right away, in an escalation of his attacks on Jerome Powell."
Australia’s last paper mill can’t plug into the grid. There’s not enough power to keep it running. The mill owner wanted to electrify the mill but they can't plug into the grid. Not a good look for Team Albo.
Signs that something is broken.
https://www.2gb.com/lights-out-australias-last-paper-mill-killed-by-pow…
they badly need nuke
The comment section is a lot like the NZ Economy, a shadow of its former self, I am considering moving to reddit and other forums
What? Not enough commentary about making money on house price rises.
No, you cannot flog a dead horse (pooperty died in Oct 2021)
to me any community is about people contributing.... here its now about $10 a month, very few are paying, seems best to go look for a place with more contribution...
It remains as informative as it needs to be for me. Priority should naturally be to follow the actual columns rather than resultant comments. And in terms of the latter, the reduction in the strident, bombastic political partisanship is very welcome. At the end of the day, it is the publisher’s call on which the web site will either rise or fall and not for us as subscriber and contributors, to sally forth about its management. I have just renewed for another 12 months and expect to do so again in twelve months time.
apart from Mr Trotter most articles around here are based on stats releases.... these happen with or without Interest.co.nz
most appear in real time in my inbox. GDP/OCR/real estate NZ etc etc etc
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