What happened Monday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; term deposit rate cuts, bonus saver withdrawal, home ownership rate dips, eyes on OCR decision, eyes on bank profits tax, swaps stable, NZD weaker, & more

7th Jul 25, 4:02pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank cut some rates today, mirrored by AMP. Also, SBS Bank no longer offers its incentive saver account. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

TWO IN THREE HOUSES OWNER-OCCUPIED
Data updated to Q2-2025 from StatsNZ suggests the home ownership rate is falling again. It fell consistently from 73.7% when this data series began in 1991 to just 64.7% in June 2018. Then it rose to 67.4% by June 2023. But is easing again now back to 66.7% today. It was last at 66.7% in September 2006 (on the way down) and December 2021 (on the way up).

WHAT'S NEXT VIEWS DIVERGE
A majority of the NZIER's 'Shadow Board' of experts recommend keeping the Official Cash Rate unchanged this week - but there's a variety of opinions on what should come next.

NZX50 DIPS
It's a down day on the NZX. As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.3% so far today, up +1.0% for the past week. It is now down -2.6% since the start of the year although up +8.3% from this time last year. Stride Property, Oceania, Vulcan Steel and Ryman rise, while Serko, Kathmandu, Summerset and Tourism Holdings decline.

WILLIS EYES BANK HONEYPOT
Big banks could face a bigger tax bill after Budget 2026, as Finance Minister Nicola Willis seeks advice on whether they are paying their fair share. It is worth noting that the big four Aussie owned banks paid $2.6 bln in tax in the year to March 2025, all at the full 28% rate. Their average ROI was 12.3%, about mid-NZX50 levels. (This view is in sharp contrast with non-taxpayers like Facebook, Google, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Visa and Mastercard et al who currently don't pay any meaningful NZ tax but probably earn similar profits from their business activities here.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed again today, perhaps a touch softer. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.28% on Friday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.19%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 4.55% but was down -5 bps at 4.52% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now unchanged from this morning's open at 4.33%.

EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The NZX50 is down -0.1% so far today in late trade. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in Monday afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.5% in early Monday trade. Hong Kong is also down -0.5% at its open while Shanghai is down -0.3%. Singapore has opened up +0.2%. Wall Street futures trade suggests the S&P500 will open tomorrow up +0.3% and another record high.

OIL PRICES RETREAT
The oil price in the US is down more than -50 USc at just under US$66/bbl and just over US$67.50 for the international Brent price. Rising supply and flagging demand are affecting oil price sentiment.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price has has held at NZ$57/NZU on few trades today. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFTENS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$29/oz from this morning, now at US$3307/oz.

NZD SOFT
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this morning at 60.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at just under 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 51.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now down -30 bps from this morning at 67.7.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$109,475 and up +0.3% from this morning. Volatility has been low, now at just on +/-0.8%.

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

Select chart tabs

Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by 8ollowing our Economic Calendar here ».

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

15 Comments

by Wilco | 7th Jul 25, 5:05pm 1751864700

The four big banks make convenient whipping boys..

There is plenty of less productive earnings in NZ not paying their fair share of taxes.

by IT GUY | 7th Jul 25, 5:40pm 1751866801

Like charities ?

by kiwikidsnz | 7th Jul 25, 6:04pm 1751868249

& Iwi businesses

by mfd | 7th Jul 25, 6:08pm 1751868515

Not many sectors taking in around $1,000 in profit each year from every man, woman and child in the country though.

As a Heartland bank shareholder I certainly don't mind the government looking to tax the big 4 more...

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 7th Jul 25, 5:22pm 1751865740

Thousands of Aussies are facing severe financial uncertainty after the collapse of the First Guardian Master Fund, a superannuation investment scheme that managed approximately $590 million in retirement savings for around 6,000 individuals. Investors have been left in limbo, with many being told it is unlikely they will recover any of their superannuation savings.

The fund’s director, David Anderson, is accused of using investor funds for personal purposes, including failed propadee developments, craft breweries, a struggling restaurant group [cough], and even making a mortgage payment on his $9 million home. It is alleged that $274 million was moved into offshore companies tied to him after he was alerted to a regulatory probe.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/thousands-risk-super-collapse-0358314…

by Foxglove. | 7th Jul 25, 6:05pm 1751868307

The bigger the playing field, the bigger the game. Echoes here of the shady stuff about which Macquarie is often accused, that is both regulators and investors alike. After 2008 got involved for an extended family member in the wind up of Babcock & Brown. Ghastly example of self enrichment and accompanying manipulation by those in charge. A first cousin of the like of Enron or Lehmans.

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 7th Jul 25, 6:25pm 1751869503

You mention Macquarie. First Guardian Master Fund was not directly recommended by Macquarie, but the fund was made available as an investment option on superannuation platforms hosted by Macquarie and other trustees, such as Equity Trustees, Netwealth, and Diversa. The presence of the fund on Macquarie’s platform led some investors to believe it was endorsed or recommended by Macquarie.

Also, SQM Research assigned a favourable rating to the First Guardian Master Fund. The fund received a 3.75-star rating from SQM Research, which is considered “favourable investment grade” and suggests moderate potential to outperform.

Media and industry analysis highlight that many investors and advisers misunderstood the meaning of research ratings, often mistaking a high rating for an investment recommendation or endorsement.

by Zachary Smith | 7th Jul 25, 6:32pm 1751869932

...likening the process to “someone selling you cars … just relentless, relentless people”.

Such a massive red flag.

by Foxglove. | 7th Jul 25, 6:54pm 1751871299

Aye, there it is.

by kensinma69 | 8th Jul 25, 9:49am 1751924955

A subtle "F off" would save so many people so much money... its not hard to do

by Averageman | 7th Jul 25, 8:25pm 1751876739

Wow. Starting to smell like the GFC. Just like then the unraveling starts slowly, and then all at once. Other people's money noe lookin its been throwen away. If you chasing a return better than the bank by a fee taker, the risk is clearly greater. Is it your or their fault?

Reckon the safest place to be is low debt to equity, and living in a small overdraft. You thus have no cash in the bank and remain an asset if SHTF. I would also suggest an account at Kiwi bank to deposit income prior to filtering elsewhere, cos let's face it, if KB folded ...it's anarchy.

🍿 + ⛽️ = 🔥

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 7th Jul 25, 6:27pm 1751869661

Good Caixin article on China property developer debt resolution: "As China’s real estate slump drags on with no recovery in sight, distressed developers are shifting toward more aggressive debt restructuring for survival, forcing creditors to swallow deep losses."

"For three years," Caixin continues, "developers relied on an “extend and pretend” approach, rolling over debt in hopes of a market rebound. But home sales have collapsed, worsening property companies’ finances."

Deposits are protected in China, which means that to the extent that the creditors ultimately taking the losses are banks, these losses will have to be covered by direct or indirect transfers, either from households, businesses, or local governments.

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2025-07-07/cover-story-developers-impose-d…

by IT GUY | 7th Jul 25, 7:18pm 1751872739

It ended up being an extend and collapse strategy

by nigelh | 7th Jul 25, 9:14pm 1751879679

Isn't NZ pretty much immune from a Kiwisavers CEO dipping their grubby little paws into investors money?Kiwisavers management funds have to have an intervening trust between management and those who hold the individuals assets.

by rolande | 8th Jul 25, 6:22am 1751912576

I really hope so. But when it comes to pilfering money people and institutions can come up with some ingenious workarounds.

I think most people who have been duped thought they were safe before the SHTF.

Would be a good article to stress test KS structures.