A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday: SBS Bank trims rates, truckometer stays weak, migration flows slump; Lactalis gets ok to bid for Fonterra's Mainland assets, swaps slip, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has trimmed its fixed rates today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has also trimmed its term deposit rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

TRAFFIC FLOWS TELL A STORY
The ANZ Truckometer monitoring of traffic flows shows its Light Traffic Index (LTI) falling -1.3% in June from May but is +0.9% higher than a year ago. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) also fell -1.3% in the month, but is up +3.0% from a year ago.

BOOMING HEAVYWEIGHTS
Infometrics is noting that news registrations for very heavy commercial vehicles is unusually strong. They say new very heavy commercial vehicle registrations in the June 2025 quarter were +55% higher than in the same quarter in 2024. Quarterly registrations of 1,004 was the strongest result on record (series beginning in 1990).

MIGRATION FLOWS SLUMP
Population gain from migration is down by more than 80% in year to May compared to previous 12 months as fewer migrants arrive, more depart long term.

MORE VISITORS FROM FEWER COUNTRIES
Visitor arrivals are rising, but they remain more than -10% lower than pre-pandemic levels. There were 190,600 arrivals in May, an increase of 10,900 or +6.1% from May 2024. The biggest changes were in arrivals from Australia (up 4,200 to 84,600), from China (up 2,300 to 16,250) and the United States (up 1,300 to 16,500). These three accounted for more than 70% of the growth from a year ago, more than 60% of all visitors in the year to May.

NZX50 IN ANOTHER DIP
It's a another down day on the NZX. As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2% so far today, now up +0.3% for the past week. It is now down -2.5% since the start of the year although up +6.7% from this time last year. Gains have been led by Goodman, Argosy, Stride, and Infratil while SkyCity casino dropped -3% alongside falls by The Warehouse, a2 Milk, and Sky TV.

POPULAR AT STABLE YIELDS
There were 85 bids today for the two NZ Government bond maturities offered at tender, totaling $1.36 bln for the $450 mln available. 30 bids won some of this tender. Compared to the same maturities offered two weeks ago, the yields achieved were virtually unchanged.

NEW ENFORCEMENT & LEVY
The AML/CFT regime is to get a 'reform'. Cabinet has agreed to introduce a bill to strengthen enforcement powers for Police and regulators to crack down on those involved in money laundering. It will also establish a new financial sanctions supervisory regime and initiate engagement on a sustainable levy to fund AML/CFT system improvements. It will be interesting to see how the Seymour DOGE review handles this.

ANTI-SCAM ALLIANCE
A new co-ordinated approach to tackling online scams has been launched. Details here.

BANNED
The Environmental Protection Authority is banning a crop insecticide, chlorpyrifos, commonly used to control grass grub. The ban will come into effect progressively during an 18-month phase-out period. The chemical is banned in the European Union and Canada, and its use is heavily restricted in Australia. It is in the process of being phased out internationally via the Stockholm Convention, of which New Zealand is a signatory. A decision-making committee of the EPA found that risks to people and the environment of using the insecticide outweighed the benefits.

'WE WON'T BLOCK A BID'
In Australia, their competition regulator, the ACCC, has said it will not block Lactalis from bidding for Fonterra's Mainland divestment. The two companies are in both Victoria and Tasmania with dairy farmer suppliers for their local processing factories. Fonterra has not yet chosen a suitor for its Mainland business, and it seems clear that a local float is also still an option. A decision is expected "this side of Christmas". FCG shares are currently near a five year high, at $4.70 each. More details here.

PEAKING?
Australian business turnover data has revealed that May activity was softish, recording a small slip from April. May was held back by a fall in their mining sector. But from a year ago, May 2025 was overall +5.9% higher on a current price basis.

SWAP RATES SOFTER, MOST OTHER RATES SOFTER
Wholesale swap rates are likely softer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.26% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 4.29%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.65%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps at 4.55% and was down -3 bps at 4.54% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now down -8 bps from this time yesterday at 4.33%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY FIRMER
The local equity market is down -0.2% in late trade. The ASX200 is up +0.8% in Thursday afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.5% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.2% at its open while Shanghai is up +0.4%. Singapore has also opened up +0.5%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session with the S&P500 up +0.6%. More tariff delays after boastful talk is noticed by markets.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price in the US is holding at just over US$68/bbl and just on US$70 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price has hovered around NZ$58/NZU on few trades today. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMER
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$17/oz from yesterday, back at US$3318/oz.

NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is up a net +30 bps from this time yesterday at 60.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at just on 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we have firmed +10 bps to 51.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up a net -10 bps from this time yesterday at 67.6.

BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$111,214 and up +2.4% from this time yesterday and making another run towards its record high on May 22. Volatility has been modest, now at just on +/-1.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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