Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Most of Finance Direct's rates for 12 months and longer have been trimmed today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
INFLATION INDICATORS MIXED BUT PRESAGE AN ELEVATED CPI
Statistics NZ's Selected Price Indexes show that food prices rose 1.2% in June and the 4.6% annual increase was the highest since December 2023. Rent prices, however, had their lowest annual increase since 2011. The June quarter CPI will to be released on Monday and a rising 2.8% rate is expected now, maybe 2.9%. Although that would be above the RBNZ's last expectation, more recent suggestions from them show they are expecting an elevated result now.
LOW INTEREST RATES NOT JUICING HOUSING MARKET
Our Housing Market Activity report for June reveals a grim outlook for this market over winter. The latest figures suggest the housing market will continue stagnating over winter with too much stock on offer and not enough buyers.
GOING BACKWARDS, A 14 YEAR HIGH
There were 10% more people claiming JobSeeker support in June 2025 than a year ago, now 216,000. On the same basis, solo parent support, supported living, and other main benefits all also rose, although not as quickly as the dole. There are now 406,128 people on these main benefits, the highest for a June since this data series began in 1998. On a working population-adjusted basis, it is the highest since 2011.
NZX50 IN GOOD RISE TODAY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.1% so far today, now up a similar +1.1% over the past week. It is now down -1.3% since the start of the year although up +5.0% from this time last year. a2 Milk, Auckland Airport, Channel Infrastructure, and Kathmandu all rise, with declines from Vista Group, Tourism Holdings, Vital Healthcare, and the NZX
WELL SUPPORTED
There were 85 bids today for the $450 mln in NZ Government bonds offered in three maturities. Those bids totaled almost $1.5 bln, and the resulting yields were actually quite similar to those achieved at the prior equivalent event five weeks ago.
UNEXPECTEDLY SOFT
The June labour market softened in Australia. The were expecting a jobs gain of +20,000 but only got +2,000. Their jobless rate ticked up to 4.3%. As a result, financial market pricing for an RBA rate cut on August 12 have risen.
HOLDING HIGH
Inflation expectations in Australia are staying stubbornly high - although not as high in July as they were in June. The Melbourne Institute's Survey of Consumer Inflationary and Wage Expectations came in with inflation expectations at 4.7% which was down from June's 5.0% but apart from that still its highest since mid 2023. Expected wage growth fell slightly in July and remains relatively weak.
SEVEN MONTH HIGH
Continuing its yoyo pattern, Singapore's June exports jumped. In fact they rose +14.3% from May to be +13% higher than year-ago levels.
NEW BIOSECURITY RISK VECTOR
In the US, the firing of over 6000 USDA border protection, quarantine and disease control specialists has made the risk of biosecurity contamination from them is now acute. Although the USDA is scrambling to hire them back, the damage has been done, will take years to recover, and the emasculated regulator will have ag trading partners on full alert.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed at the short end but softer at the longer durations today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.27% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.36%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.59% and and also down -4 bps at 4.57% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is little-changed at 4.48%
EQUITIES RISE HERE, MIXED THERE
The local equity market is up +1.2% in late trade, easily the strongest of all the markets we follow. The ASX200 is up +0.7% in Thursday afternoon trade. Tokyo is down another -0.2% in early trade today. Hong Kong is down -0.1% at its open while Shanghai is little-changed. Singapore has also opened up +0.3%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session firmer by +0.3% in hesitant trade.
OIL MARGINALLY SOFTER
The oil price in the US is little-changed at just under US$67/bbl and just under US$69 for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price is now at NZ$58/NZU but trade only on a tiny trade. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMER
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$14/oz to US$3338/oz.
NZD SOFT
The Kiwi dollar is down a net -30 bps from this time yesterday at 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at just on 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -20 bps from yesterday, now just under 67..
BITCOIN FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price is now at US$118,344 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest, now at just on +/-1.2%.
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16 Comments
I was a lonely teenage broncin' buck
With a pink carnation and a pickup truck
But I knew I was out of luck
The day the Ponzi died
and they where singing...........
Foe clarification what does ponzi mean. Is it the whole housing market, investment and own home ownership. Or just investment.
All the above.
Too many forward bets placed, not enough remaining planet to do the underwriting.
That is paralleled physically; too many people already present, not enough planet to do the underwriting.
Overshoot, Ponzi: same thing. Collapse, crash: same things too.
..
if you do not know you do not know... ignorance is bliss.
But a few hints
- Its 70% of NZ bank balance sheet lending. (Just get your head around that fact......).
- Its a bigger asset allocation in the average kiwis book then stocks or bonds. (So much for sound financial planning).
- Its not a very liquid class to hold.
- Stock is at record levels.
"70% of nz bank balance sheet"
In other words all housing, owner occupied and investment. That's a scarey thought as a huge part of the transactions are first homers and movers
Scared shows some appreciation of the possible consequences....
Trump has announced he has talked with Coca-Cola and the company will use sugar cane over high-fructose corn syrup. In the U.S., this is referred to as “Mexican Coke” - Coca-Cola produced in Mexico and imported for sale. It's typically recognizable by its distinct glass bottle and the use of cane sugar (traditional white sugar) as the primary sweetener, instead of high-fructose corn syrup.
Cane sugar is imported in the U.S., but corn syrup is produced locally. No confirmation from Coca Cola yet, but supply chains will be pivoting if this formula change eventuates. Incidentally, Brazil is the biggest sugarcane productor in the world, but has been lumped with a 50% tariff.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/coca-cola-dodges-trump-s…
Extraordinary beverage Coca Cola. For a start, in New Zealand, how else would Jim Beam, Bacardi and Coruba ever have got a toe hold?
Jim Beam owned by Suntory now. Was in Osaka 2023 and saw the 750 ml bottle selling for JPY980 ($11.15 in Kiwi pesos) at Yamaya, Japanese booze chain.
Imagine that in Aotearoa, bottles would be flying off the shelves like wild fire at that price.
I can home distill a bottle of gin / vodka for between $4-5
Silly me, I thought mexican coke refers to mexican coke...
I wonder if JCB rates spike if the carry trade enabled Suntory is going to have to fire sale this and Frucor?
‘Trump has announced’.
Means diddly squat.
Noticed that Meiji Holdings Co., a leading Japanese food and pharmaceutical conglomerate, is among the key suitors for Fonterra consumer assets. Meiji has significant regional dairy operations and holds over 17% of the Japanese milk market, with further dairy business in China and Thailand. The company already maintains a presence in Australia and New Zealand through subsidiaries in both the food and pharmaceutical sectors.
Meiji is a beast. Meiji’s experience with cross-border M&A (e.g., its significant investment in AustAsia's Chinese dairy assets in 2020) may afford it a competitive advantage.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will not release the statistics from the 2023-24 Survey of Income and Housing (SIH), due to data collection issues. They say "despite attempts to address these challenges, the resulting data failed to meet the ABS’ rigorous standards for official statistics and, consequently, will not be published."
As a result of this decision, the following outputs will not be released in 2025:
-
Income and Wealth, Australia
-
Housing Occupancy and Costs, Australia
https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-statements/survey-income-and-…
I will fill in the forms for a $50 KFC voucher.
Hmmm...
If you consider the two headlines:
GOING BACKWARDS, A 14 YEAR HIGH
and
NEW BIOSECURITY RISK VECTOR
It's a bit of a toss up which administration is stuffing up more profoundly.
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