A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; monthly data points to an elevated Q2 CPI, housing market in winter doldrums, high demand for NZGBs, NZX50 shines, swaps stable, NZD soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Most of Finance Direct's rates for 12 months and longer have been trimmed today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

INFLATION INDICATORS MIXED BUT PRESAGE AN ELEVATED CPI
Statistics NZ's Selected Price Indexes show that food prices rose 1.2% in June and the 4.6% annual increase was the highest since December 2023. Rent prices, however, had their lowest annual increase since 2011. The June quarter CPI will to be released on Monday and a rising 2.8% rate is expected now, maybe 2.9%. Although that would be above the RBNZ's last expectation, more recent suggestions from them show they are expecting an elevated result now.

LOW INTEREST RATES NOT JUICING HOUSING MARKET
Our Housing Market Activity report for June reveals a grim outlook for this market over winter. The latest figures suggest the housing market will continue stagnating over winter with too much stock on offer and not enough buyers.

GOING BACKWARDS, A 14 YEAR HIGH
There were 10% more people claiming JobSeeker support in June 2025 than a year ago, now 216,000. On the same basis, solo parent support, supported living, and other main benefits all also rose, although not as quickly as the dole. There are now 406,128 people on these main benefits, the highest for a June since this data series began in 1998. On a working population-adjusted basis, it is the highest since 2011.

NZX50 IN GOOD RISE TODAY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.1% so far today, now up a similar +1.1% over the past week. It is now down -1.3% since the start of the year although up +5.0% from this time last year. a2 Milk, Auckland Airport, Channel Infrastructure, and Kathmandu all rise, with declines from Vista Group, Tourism Holdings, Vital Healthcare, and the NZX

WELL SUPPORTED
There were 85 bids today for the $450 mln in NZ Government bonds offered in three maturities. Those bids totaled almost $1.5 bln, and the resulting yields were actually quite similar to those achieved at the prior equivalent event five weeks ago.

UNEXPECTEDLY SOFT
The June labour market softened in Australia. The were expecting a jobs gain of +20,000 but only got +2,000. Their jobless rate ticked up to 4.3%. As a result, financial market pricing for an RBA rate cut on August 12 have risen.

HOLDING HIGH
Inflation expectations in Australia are staying stubbornly high - although not as high in July as they were in June. The Melbourne Institute's Survey of Consumer Inflationary and Wage Expectations came in with inflation expectations at 4.7% which was down from June's 5.0% but apart from that still its highest since mid 2023. Expected wage growth fell slightly in July and remains relatively weak.

SEVEN MONTH HIGH
Continuing its yoyo pattern, Singapore's June exports jumped. In fact they rose +14.3% from May to be +13% higher than year-ago levels.

NEW BIOSECURITY RISK VECTOR
In the US, the firing of over 6000 USDA border protection, quarantine and disease control specialists has made the risk of biosecurity contamination from them is now acute. Although the USDA is scrambling to hire them back, the damage has been done, will take years to recover, and the emasculated regulator will have ag trading partners on full alert.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed at the short end but softer at the longer durations today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.27% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.36%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.59% and and also down -4 bps at 4.57% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is little-changed at 4.48%

EQUITIES RISE HERE, MIXED THERE
The local equity market is up +1.2% in late trade, easily the strongest of all the markets we follow. The ASX200 is up +0.7% in Thursday afternoon trade. Tokyo is down another -0.2% in early trade today. Hong Kong is down -0.1% at its open while Shanghai is little-changed. Singapore has also opened up +0.3%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session firmer by +0.3% in hesitant trade.

OIL MARGINALLY SOFTER
The oil price in the US is little-changed at just under US$67/bbl and just under US$69 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price is now at NZ$58/NZU but trade only on a tiny trade. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMER
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$14/oz to US$3338/oz.

NZD SOFT
The Kiwi dollar is down a net -30 bps from this time yesterday at 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at just on 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -20 bps from yesterday, now just under 67..

BITCOIN FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price is now at US$118,344 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest, now at just on +/-1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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