Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The rate offer declines keep coming from the non-bank deposit takers (NBDT). Today we have more cuts from General Finance, and from Liberty Financial. Because the taxpayer is guaranteeing these, and charging a fee for that cover, the interest rate premium the NBDTs need to offer (or can afford because of the fees) is coming down. No longer do rates for some finance companies reflect the risk profile of that company. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
BIG TICKET CLIP
Real estate industry is estimated to have earned half a billion dollars in residential commissions in Q2-2025, and that will take the total for the twelve months to June to almost $2 bln.
UNUSUAL
Billings on credit cards issued in New Zealand came in just over $3.7 bln in June, and an outsized +8.2% higher than in June 2024. We haven't seen a year-on-year gain like that since February 2023 and the pandemic adjustment back then. Outside the covid period, it is the best June gain since 2015. But because the recent gain is not being matched by retail sales growth, perhaps this is an early sign of stressed household spending?
NZX50 WITH GOOD WEEKLY GAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2% so far today, now up +1.6% over the past week. It is now down -1.4% since the start of the year although up +4.5% from this time last year. Fletcher, Infratil, Precinct Properties, and Gentrack are in the green today, while Vista Group, Vulcan, Kathmandu, and Oceania declined.
JAPANESE INFLATION EASES BUT REMAINS HIGH
Japan's annual inflation rate eased to 3.3% in June 2025 from 3.5% in the previous month, marking the lowest reading since last November. Most components eased, but not food, which rose 7.2%, the most since March, a surge due to the doubling of rice prices over the fast year.
SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates are likely a little higher across all durations today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.26% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.36%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.67%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 4.63% and and unchanged at 4.57% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps at 4.44%
EQUITIES SLIP HERE, RISE THERE
The local equity market is down -0.2% in late trade. However the ASX200 is up +1.0% in Friday afternoon trade. Tokyo is down another -0.3% in early trade today. Hong Kong is up +0.9% at its open while Shanghai is up +0.4%. Singapore has also opened up +0.4%. Wall Street ended its Thursday session firmer by +0.5% in enough for it to claim a new all-time record high.
OIL MARGINALLY FIRMER
The oil price in the US is up +50 USc at just under US$67.50/bbl and just under US$69.50 for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price is still at NZ$58/NZU with only minimal trading activity. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD STABLE
In early Asian trade, gold is little-changed, down -US$1/oz to US$3337/oz.
NZD FIRMS NOTABLY
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from this time yesterday at 59.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at just on 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at 51.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +30 bps from yesterday, now just under 67.3.
BITCOIN FIRMS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$120,163 and up +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has remained modest, now at just on +/-1.5%.
NTH VS STH
We are cheering for Manu Samoa (in Auckland), the All Blacks (in Hamilton), and the Wallabies (in Brisbane) this weekend. Two these these should get the job done, at least. The U20 final is on in Italy too this weekend.
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