Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
HOME IMPROVEMENT ALTERATION WORK DECLINES
The number of building consents issued for residential building alterations has declined by -20% over the last three years.
THE ADDICTION PARTY
In another big win for the tobacco industry, the Government (via NZ First minister Costello) is moving to reduce the tax on HTPs (heated tobacco products). These are just another way to deliver a nicotine hit. Heated tobacco products are addictive. Nicotine is a highly addictive substance found in all tobacco products, including cigarettes, e-cigarettes, and smokeless tobacco. Nicotine alters brain function, leading to cravings and dependence. There is a lot of money to be made from feeding addictions. There is clear misdirection going on here about 'reducing smoking'. Smoke per se isn't the issue (although reduced lung cancer is a good thing), it is the nicotine addiction that is. It is not ideal for nicotine suppliers to kill their customer base so pivoting to other delivery methods is helpful. It is maybe a good time to buy BAT shares as a new generation gets hooked.
NZX50 EASES LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is -0.1% lower today, although up +0.4% from a week ago. That makes it down -1.4% since the start of the year although it is still up +4.6% from this time last year. Tower, Heartland, Skellerup, and Channel edge higher while Oceania, Investore, Vital, and EBOS weigh on the NZX50. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.5% today.
EYES ON DAIRY PRICES
There is another GDT dairy Pulse auction tomorrow, and the futures markets are signaling what they signaled at last week's Pulse auction, SMP prices holding or a little firmer, WMP prices falling maybe more than -3%. But that didn't actually happen last week, so probably best to wait for the actual results tomorrow morning.
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY OWNERSHIP GETTING TOUGHER
Our tracking of commercial property for-lease listings on reatestate.co.nz has them rising to a 2025 high at 24,420 listings. Auckland listings make up 60% of these. In "Auckland Central" they have jumped +20% this year. But larger proportional rises have occurred in Hamilton (+53%), Tauranga (+32%), Wellington (+22%), Dunedin (+23%) and Queenstown (+31%). Commercial properties for sale now represent 15% of those for lease.
MICHAEL HILL PASSES
Icon retailer Sir Michael Hill has died, aged 86. Details here.
NO PROGRESS SO FAR
US-China trade talks in Stockholm will continue tomorrow after an inconclusive session earlier today.
JAPANESE ICE CREAM INNOVATION COMING HERE
A Japanese company is to launch new ice-cream products here. They like New Zealand (and Australia) because we have the world's highest per capita consumption of ice cream. They are bringing technology for sandwiching, coating and layering that can't be found locally. Watch out for Azuki bars, and Yawamochi.
MORE THAN JUST 'SEASONAL'
In northern China, and around Beijing, they are going through a rough time with rain and storms. There are reports of huge rainfall in some of the outlying districts of Beijing that have resulted in “significant casualties and property losses”.
FOR OUR AUSSIE READERS
We now have a new service for our Australian readers; interest.com.au
SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 3.20% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.33%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at just over 1.73%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.59% and down -4 bps at 4.57% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bps at 4.40%
EQUITIES LOWER; NZX50's NO CHANGE IS TALLEST DWARF
The local equity market is now little-changed in late Tuesday trade. However the ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.9% . Hong Kong is also down -0.9% at its open and Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore has opened down -0.4%. Wall Street ended little-changed, unable to hold earlier intra-day gains. But it is still touching record levels.
OIL RISES
The oil price in the US is up a bit less than +US$1.50, now at just under US$67/bbl and just over US$70 for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE STILL LOW
The carbon price is soft at NZ$56.00/NZU but again, with trades very scarce. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$20 from yesterday at US$3316/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is down -½c from this time yesterday, now at 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 51.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is holding at 67.3.
BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$118,374 and down -0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low, now also at just on +/-0.9%.
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15 Comments
Would be interested if anyone had some feedback and insights on the Richard Werner - Tucker Carlson Podcast
Wasn't aware this took place. Will be tuning in. Werner getting such recognition is astounding. Even among my economics knowledgeable mates, he's not really on the radar. Compare that to Japan, where Werner enjoys a notable degree of popularity and recognition, especially within academic, financial, and policy circles. His book "Princes of the Yen" was a number one general bestseller in Japan, with both mainstream and scholarly impact. Werner's research into the Japanese economy and his commentary on Japanese monetary policy have been influential, and he is frequently cited in Japanese discussions about economic development and central banking.
Perplexity summary:
"On the July 28, 2025 episode of Tucker Carlson's podcast, world-renowned economist Richard Werner discussed foundational aspects of the global financial system, focusing on how money is created. Werner explained that banks "create money out of thin air" when they issue loans, a process not widely understood by the general public. According to Werner, banks simply generate new money on their balance sheets via lending, and this mechanism allows them to profit substantially by keeping a portion of the money created for themselves. The conversation also critically addressed the role of central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, with Werner exposing what he described as the "evils" of such institutions and drawing links to broader economic and political consequences"
In a Master Investor podcast, Ray Dalio has recommended allocating about 15% of an investment portfolio to either Bitcoin or gold. This advice is motivated by rising concerns over fiat currency devaluation and mounting U.S. debt levels, which Dalio views as heightening the risk of a "classic devaluation" scenario reminiscent of the 1930s or 1970s. He stated that, if optimizing for the best return-to-risk ratio without a strong market view, a balanced portfolio would include around 15% in gold or Bitcoin.
Water cooler buddy joked that perhaps 15% is for the 1%ers, while the rest probably need to be closer to 85%.
Chilling reckons from the FT out of China:
"China shows no sign of securing lasting victory in its battle with deflation. A lack of demand remains a problem, [but] there is little hope of China beating deflationary dynamics unless it addresses the other side of the ledger too — that of excessive supply."
"The state can build factories — but it can’t manufacture efficiency."
This hits at the core of the problem. And what is "efficiency"? Matching supply to demand, both domestic and what is allowed in overseas markets.
https://www.ft.com/content/d5ab6bdb-689f-466c-94ea-0d4e5bbaa8f1
Pretty much every day I'm stunned by just how stupid people were in voting in this coalition of the chemical addiction. Stunned that anyone could actually believe any of the three parties, any of the parties in parliament for that matter, have the best long-term interests of the country at heart. Stunned.
They wanted to see the back of Labour (which had squandered the opportunities presented to it when it won the previous election outright) and were not clever enough to see through the election spin of NactFir. Nor were they interested in investigating/considering the policies of the next tier of small parties.
Agree people HATED JACINDA especially in Auckland. It was punishment as much as desire for change.
I had the freedom of skiing in QTown for 8 weeks, then went north into locked down Auckland, unless you saw the hatred...
it was Covid, over spending, co-governance take your pick. Labour presented a list of issues and no redeaming features what so ever.
And then after putting us through all that - she had no gas left in the tank...
Luckily NZers had a enough gas left to drive to the polling booths, and kick her sorry parties ass into oblivion
I had the freedom of skiing in QTown for 8 weeks
Which sounds nice. But 8 weeks in Queenie is beyond my pain threshold. Mate does 2 months in Niseko every year and manages to keep working. Extremely productive person.
And then after putting us through all that - she had no gas left in the tank...
By running out of gas, she played her hand according to her self interest, not the interest of the hoi polloi. She would have been savaged in an election regardless.
QTown during lockdowns was actually OK, there was NO BODY there... could not exist in that construct but it was OK, The bar man knew me by name and how I wanted my steak cooked... Service was a real thing
And there where no lift queues.
re that lady - I have never seen such a self centered left leader... but that is how they present these days.
No wonder she needs police protection when in NZ.
Well, they'd seen where the 6th Labour govt left us & where we were heading...& took appropriate action.
It's called democracy
In reply to both above.
So simply wasted votes then.
Is that really democracy?
YES you have to cut out the cancer when it presents, none of the votes kicking Labour out felt wasted to said voter.
Labour did it to themselves, take a look at yourself in the mirror ?
Labour, bless em, still think they can win with Hippie reborn.
A little policy bonfire and all is ok.
You can already see Act NZF TPM Greens starting to become radical to win votes, this election is going to be both nuts and ugly.
I predict the same coalition in power but unsatisfied voters moving camp within the coalition, I think NZF up a lot, Act up a touch and all those votes stolen from Nat. Same on the Left just a movement within the left. Greens have had so much bad press from shoplifting to that bummerboy thing...
IMHO the winner will be Australia
Agree on NZF rise, assuming Winston remains undead...
Yes redcows - simply wasted votes in a pretend democracy. The biggest changes in our "democracy" in the last few decades were never voted and the demos never consulted. From removing the privy council to money printing to lockdowns/house arrest/travel ban to a million immigrants to energy policy - the we know best laptop brigade changed NZ forever. The south africanisation of NZ back to a squabbling colony.
Generally I disagree on a lot of what you say but here you nailed it.
I don't understand ITguy saying the vote was not wasted when Australia was the only winner. Makes no sense.
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