Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Mutual Credit Finance cut their rates for terms 1 to 5 years. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
THE ECONOMY MAY BE BLAH, BUT WE ARE STILL BUYING NEW CARS
New car sales in July came in better than year-ago levels at 7633, a minor surprise that they are holding up. But used imports fell on the same basis, down -10.5% to 8063. Also somewhat surprising was the 4021 commercial vehicle sales in July, the best month in the past 18. 4142 of the 8062 new cars were NEVs, but of those only 552 were pure electric vehicles.
20,000+ PAST DUE HOME LOANS
Centrix reported that 21,600 home loans were past due in the June quarter.
LATE PAYMENT LEVELS RISE
Centrix also said 478,000 people were behind on payments in the June quarter with the hospitality sector one of the most vulnerable industries in current economic climate.
BOTTOMED OUT AT LOWER LEVEL
The slump in residential building may have hit the bottom as consents in June were +1% higher than May levels on a seasonally adjusted basis, but -6% lower on an actual basis. Over the past year consents for residential dwelling construction have been level at just shy of 34,000 and have remained around those levels for a year now.. But costs have hit a record high for those consents issued.
PUBLIC SECTOR PULLBACK
After a more solid few months, the value of non-residential building consents in June was down -3.7% from a year ago, and the monthly total of consents was the lowest this year. This fall is all about the public sector pulling back.
NO IMPROVEMENT
ANZ says July consumer confidence stayed weak and inflation expectations nudged over 5%.
CASINOS AGAIN - $5 MLN PENALTY FOR AML BREACHES
A settlement has been reached in the Department of Internal Affairs’ civil proceedings against Christchurch Casinos Limited for alleged breaches of its obligations under the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act 2009. As part of the settlement, Christchurch Casino has admitted all seven causes of action in DIA’s amended statement of claim and has agreed to join DIA in recommending that the High Court impose a penalty of $5.06m on Christchurch Casino.
WARMER BUT WETTER
Parts of New Zealand are likely to experience more wet, warm weather over the next three-month period, with shifting ocean conditions hinting at a possible return to La Niña by the end of the year, according to the latest Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA) Seasonal Climate Outlook for August to October 2025.
NZX50 STARTS THE MONTH UNENTHUSIASTICALLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is starting the month down -0.5% from yesterday, down -0.7% from a week ago, and down -2.4% since the start of the year. It is up +2.2% from a year ago. Heartland, Infratil, Investore, and Oceania gain; SkyCity casino, Kathmandu, a2 Milk, FPH and EBOS are the main decliners.
RECORD HIGH FSF SHAREPICE
(Update): We should probably note that the Fonterra farmer/supplier share price (FSF) has almost hit $7, a record high.
TRUMP TARIFFS SET AT 15%
New Zealand has been hit with 'reciprocal tariffs' of 15% - ignoring the fact that we don't levy tariffs on most US products, although we do have some biosecurity barriers in place. But English and its meanings count for little with the current Administration. Australia has retained a 10% tariff penalty. More here.
AUSSIE PRODUCER INFLATION EASES
Australian producer prices rose 3.4% over the past year to June, down from a 3.7% rate in the year to March, and down from a 4.8% rate in the year to June 2024. Cost pressures are still high, but they are easing, even if slowly.
CAIXIN SURVEY ALSO RETREATS
Like the official China factory PMIs had signaled, the independent Caixin PMI also signaled that their factory sector went backwards in July. The Caixin survey isn't as negative as the official survey, but it now shows the overall sector in contraction. The Caixin survey tends to account better for mid-sized private manufacturers whereas the official survey includes the very large state-owned enterprises.
FOR OUR AUSSIE READERS
We now have a separate service for our Australian readers; interest.com.au
SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are likely slightly firmer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.20% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.33%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at just under 1.71%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.56% but unchanged at 4.53% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps at just over 4.38%
EQUITIES LOWER
The local equity market is now down -0.4% in late Friday trade. And the ASX200 is down -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.4%. Hong Kong is unchanged at its open and Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore has risen +0.2%. Wall Street ended a confused session down -0.4% on the S&P500 in Thursday trade trying to assess the impact of the tariff confusions.
OIL LOWER
The oil price in the US is down -50 USc, now at US$69.50/bbl. But it is down -US$1 at just over US$71.50 for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price rose +50c to NZ$56/NZU on the return of some good sized trades today. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$5 from yesterday at US$3292/oz.
NZD RETREATS
The Kiwi dollar is down another -30 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.8 USc following the reaction to the US tariff setting. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 51.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down at 66.7 and a -30 bps retreat. The US dollar has strengthened but only back to the April/May levels.
BITCOIN DROPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$115,986 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest, at just on +/-1.8%.
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20 Comments
Does NEVs include cars that don't plug in (petrol hybrids)?
yes
Thanks David.
IMO petrol hybrid is not really an electric car in any way - it just uses electricity to temporarily store energy that was created by the petrol engine. A big flywheel would achieve something similar. In fact even my old school petrol car stores electricity in a battery to power the lights and starter motor!
Still pretty amazing that over half of all vehicle imports are in this fuel efficient category.
Moving fuel taxes away from pump and into RUC system might have to happen sooner than expected?
Under a NACTFirst government, driving a car is rapidly changing from user pays to government subsidised, and they have pledged not to increase fuel tax. Commies?
Moving fuel taxes away from pump and into RUC system might have to happen sooner than expected?
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Moving petrol vehicles to a RUC system is a dumb idea - and not just because Simeon Brown advocates for it.
Here's one problem with it:
There are a huge number of cars on our roads that are running around without current WOFs (jto get an idea, ust look at how many cars you encounter with bulbs out for starters). WOF inspections are when the vast majority of RUC checks will happen. If someone isn't getting a WOF, they sure as hell won't be bothering with RUCS.
Other reasons are available.
Interesting. Apparently there's a lot of un-WOFd and rego'd on farm vehicles
Easy to spot with number plate cameras. A big hefty fine paid directly out of the dole cheque could do it?
Good luck with that.
USD has lost nearly 30% of its purchasing power since 2020. Effectively 1/3 of people's savings destroyed in half a decade. The Anglosphere empire's decline is moving fast. And most people are completely oblivious.
https://truflation.com/marketplace/truflation-us-aggregated
"Effectively 1/3 of people's savings destroyed in half a decade" - if they saved it under their mattress.
"Effectively 1/3 of people's savings destroyed in half a decade" - if they saved it under their mattress.
True. Mind you, the actual average return for a typical bank customer - weighted for all forms of bank deposits - was only 0.6–0.7% annualized over the 5-year period. And given that 93% equities are directly owned (not IRAs or pension funds) by 10% of the population, it appears the majority are ravaged in some form.
And there's an important question here - should people be forced to dispose of their savings to preserve its value? Hasn't the ASB brand been pushing the virtues of saving since their inception?
Another important question - shouldn't the return on cash be equivalent to the loss of its purchasing power over time? Is there any place for this in the social contract between the ruling elite and the hoi polloi?
NZD probably similar?
USD has lost nearly 30% of its purchasing power since 2020. Effectively 1/3 of people's savings destroyed in half a decade. The Anglosphere empire's decline is moving fast. And most people are completely oblivious.
I think it's patently obvious to most people that the amount of stuff you can exchange your money for has declined since 2020. In basically every country on Earth. The opposite of oblivious.
Is America the worst there? Definitely not.
There aren't many places that aren't in a tricky spot in 2025. America is in trouble, but then again so are most of its most viable competitors. You're going to be less likely to know, because data from other places can be less reliable, or non existent, compared to the bombardment we get about American political and economic issues.
You have to acknowledge it's just as likely the whole shooting match goes for a skate, not just America.
Buffett indicator the highest its ever been and tracking higher:
https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/
Is this market overvalued or is the a 'new normal'.
Noticed one of the further reading references in your link is Lyn Alden's 'How Market Capitalization Works (And a Look at Rolling Bubbles)'. It's an excellent primer, particularly the explanation of how marginal buyers set the price and how mkt cap is not necessarily representative of money flows. Lyn applies this to the housing Ponzi, which should be of interest to Aotearoans - who rarely seem to consider this.
Is this market overvalued or is the a 'new normal'.
It's value is highly dependent on retirement funds. Most of it has no bearing on a rate of return. As we reach a point where withdrawals exceed deposits, there will be a massive price rationalization
Or maybe sooner, depending on geopolitics.
Many of the comments on this string beg some questions - at least for me they do - for starters, how many of these so-called asset 'bubbles' are historical highs, and which ones are nowhere near those peaks?
Also, by measuring bubbles with Western fiat tokens*, are we not using a gauge that hides historical context? *(remember too, that fiat is not money - its merely credit)
I was playing around with this concept yesterday and decided to run an exercise referencing, as a ratio, the S&P 500 with that annoying old rock relic, of which 1oz would buy pretty much the same amount of goods and services as it has done for 5000 years.
The gold spot price on that day (July 29, 2025) was $3,319.40
The S&P 500 was $6,369.68
The workings are in done in US dollars - yes, I know, a bad habit of mine.
Here are 30 years of ratio (S&P:Spot-Gold) in 5-year, mid-year end of July numbers, through until July 29, 2025...
YEAR S&P 500 GOLD RATIO
1995 - $615.93 - $387.00 - ratio 1.59
2000 - $1320.28 - $272.65 - ratio - 4.84 - the Dotcom hype
2005 - $1,248.29 - $513.00 - ratio - 2.43
2010 - $1,257.54 - $1,405.00- ratio- 0.89 - coming out of the GFC
2015 - $2,043.03 - $1,060.00 - ratio 1.93
2020 - $3,756.07 - $1,898.36 - ratio 1.98 - the beginning of the scamdemic
2025 - $6,369.68 - $3,319.36 - ratio 1.92
There are the numbers in black and white, using this gauge...
(i) The 2025 S&P 'bubble' is only marginally bigger than it was 30 years ago. 1.59 up to 1.91
(ii) If the 2025 bubble reached the same level as it was 25 years ago on the cusp of the Dotcom fiasco, the index would have to get to a mind-numbing $16,056.
($6,369.68 x 4.84/1.92 = $16,056)
(iii) The ratio hasn't gone up in 10 years (1.93 - 1.92) - in fact, it is down a tiny 0.01 - essentially the same.
I am not claiming that these figures are either high or low, and so please don't shoot the messenger. I am simply suggesting that if we are going to compare asset highs, lows, and bubbles, then perhaps we should try a more reliable gauge.
Regards
Col
Reported on BBC
"In contrast, neighbouring New Zealand saw its rate rise from 10% to 15%. Wellington's Trade Minister Todd McClay said the country was "unfairly penalised" and had asked for a call with US ambassador and trade negotiator Jamieson Greer, to "start making a case" for a lower levy."
So, were we not making a case already? A lot of other countries had trade talks with US. Even Aus got to keep its 10%.
Maybe just capricious. Maybe US has been asking for something behind the scenes?
The Trump administration isn't resourced to conduct trade negotiations with dozens of countries at the same time. Even one can take years to do properly.
A country like NZ isn't capable of catching anyone at the White Houses ear about this sort of thing.
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