Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
WBS (Wairarapa Building Society) has trimmed their 6, 9 and 12 month rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
DAIRY DIP
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index -fell 1.8% in July from June as lower dairy product prices took the gloss off. However, over the past year the index has risen +10.7%, supported by higher dairy and red meat prices. In NZD, the index fell -1.2% in July from June as the NZD strengthened. More here.
GLOBAL SCALE, AUTOMATED
T&G Global and Roc Partners have said they will build a large-scale Hawke’s Bay apple orchard for T&G Global's Envy and Joli product in automation-ready configurations. The development is notable, not only for the automation aspects, but it will be equivalent in size to 40 rugby fields (40 ha).
NZX50 RISES SHARPLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.1% so far today joining the global bounceback. However it is still down -0.9% over the past five days and down -1.9% year-to-date, while sitting +4.5% higher year-on-year.Tourism Holdings, F&P Healthcare, Kathmandu, and Vulcan Steel rise; Gentrack, Briscoes, Air NZ, and Auckland Airport are decliners
HANGING IN THERE
There is another dairy auction tomorrow morning. The derivatives markets don't see much change, either from the last full auction three weeks ago, or even from the Pulse auction a week ago.
STILL SPENDING FREELY
Quarterly June data out today in Australia shows household spending rose at a good rate, up +5.1% from the same month a year ago - and the rate it rose from March was good too. Discretionary spending was strong. Western Australia was the only jurisdiction where spending fell. On a volume basis (after inflation's impact), it is up +0.7%.
CHINA REGAINING MOMENTUM
China delivered a positive data surprise today, with the private Caixin services PMI rising and by more than expected. (Remember the official NBS services PMI eased lower.) The Caixin China General Services PMI rose in July from June’s nine-month low with the fastest expansion in the services sector since May 2024, and with new business growing at the strongest pace in a year.
FOR OUR AUSSIE READERS
We now have a separate service for our Australian readers; interest.com.au
SWAP RATES EASE AGAIN
Sovereign interest rates are likely lower again today even after yesterday's largish retreat. Risk aversion is still extending into the new week. Wholesale swap rates are likely lower today and across the whole maturity range, all on these global influences. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -4 bp at 3.15% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.22%. The China 10 year bond rate is back up +2 bps at just over 1.71%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.46% while down -2 bps at 4.43% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is down -5 bps from yesterday at just under 4.20%. Bond markets are flashing quite different signals, warning ones, than the equity markets
EQUITIES ALL HIGHER ON DIP-BUYING
The local equity market is now up +1.1% in late Tuesday trade. And the ASX200 is up +1.0% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.6%. Hong Kong is unchanged at its open and Shanghai is up +0.5%. Singapore has risen +0.4%. Wall Street is rose in its Monday trade with the S&P500 up +1.5 in a partial bounce back after a series of large declines
OIL REVERSES
The oil price in the US is sharply lower, now just over US$66/bbl. And the international Brent price is now at US$68.50/bbl. Building supply and weaker demand in major countries are behind the change.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price was unchanged today at NZ$57/NZU on few trades. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD TURNS UP
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$20 from yesterday at US$3372/oz.
NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is down another -10 bps from yesterday, now at 59 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are holding lower at just over 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is little-changed at 67.
BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$114,656 and down an insignificant -0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low, at just on +/-0.6%.
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19 Comments
Here is the best news of the day: https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360781287/govt-takes-trimmer-garden-sh…
Finally Seymour cutting red tape that genuinely sucked.
Agreed, there are far too many rules and regulations in the building code.
Cannot see much added to gdp from this but I guess anything is a start given how many are being paid 150k plus’s
It may not add to GDP but it'll mean our GDP figures are comprised of just a little less pointless regulation that adds little or nothing to society.
There must be plenty of GDP earning tools stored in garden sheds, and plenty of GDP earning workers using sleepouts.
We're still waiting though eh, still waiting for the granny flat exemption, still waiting for specifics so we can start designing, still waiting for an approval date.
You know, the important stuff.
We waited for 5 years for jacindas promises to materialize but then jacinda vaporized herself knowing the people could see through her
Reminiscent of an old The Goons episode. “Gad Bloodnock, I admire your guts.” “ Why, are they showing?” “Only when the sun shines behind you.”
😆 before my time unfortunately
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$20 from yesterday at US$3372/oz.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) up strongly overnight (almost 5%). Now up 59% year to date eclipsing gold spot and the ol' rat poison.
We still have 20% to go before it reaches its previous ATH in 2011.
Some of the GDX performers YTD:
Newmont - +71%
Anglo Ashanti: +124%
New Gold: +75%
Evolution: +51%
Oceana Gold: +57%
After the U.S. imposed steep new tariffs on coffee imports from Brazil and Vietnam (with prospects of rising or facing anti-transshipment penalties), both countries are rapidly shifting their trade strategies toward China. This pivot is transforming global coffee supply chains, with far-reaching implications for producers, traders, and consumer markets.
China has approved 183 Brazilian coffee exporters for its market, granting them five-year export licenses starting July 30. This move aims to offset the $4.4 billion in annual trade at risk from U.S. tariffs, as the U.S. is Brazil’s biggest coffee buyer, importing nearly 8 million 60-kg bags annually. Brazil shipped 538,000 bags of coffee to China in the first half of 2025, signaling significant potential for growth as Chinese demand rises, especially for high-quality, traceable coffee.
https://www.foodbusinessmea.com/china-grants-market-access-to-183-brazi…
World trade was distorted enough already. Now the distortions are being distorted. It’s the same principle, as far as fixing ills, that a kick in the knackers will quickly make any man forget about a tooth ache.
Yes. JBS (Brazilian meat company and key global producer) is actively entering and expanding in Vietnam. They have announced a $100 million investment to build two processing plants in Vietnam that will produce beef, pork, and poultry - primarily with raw materials imported from Brazil.
JBS has stated that Vietnam will serve as both a key market and a strategic hub for food production and distribution across ASEAN and China.
In the 1980s NZ’s ANZCO set up that same sort of function in Sth Korea, tempering & boning such as frozen lamb forequarters and mutton for mostly the Japanese market. Rather successfully too. The Sth Koreans proved to be skilful and fast butchers.
"NZS is expected to cost less, in real terms, in 2050, 2060 and 2070 than we expected 25 years ago?"
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2025/08/guest_post_on_the_long-term_costs_of…
Hmm, based on GDP growth. To me what matters most is the amount of tax I’ll need to pay for NZS
due to a combination of increasing labour force participation rates and higher immigration numbers.
Hard to know whether or not this is satire or reporting (from the satirical Betoota Advocate)
PM: “Without More International Students, The University Ponzi Will Collapse And So Too Will Rents For Property Investors”
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has today defended his government’s decision to increase international student intake despite Australia’s deepening housing crisis, warning that the country’s fragile economic ecosystem depends on maintaining the delicate balance between overcrowded share houses, massively overpriced degrees and unsustainable rent yields.
Speaking at a property industry lunch in Betoota Heights, the Prime Minister said that any move to slow the intake of international students could have “devastating consequences” for two of the nation’s three core economic pillars, the property speculation market and the tertiary education industry.
https://www.betootaadvocate.com/uncategorized/pm-without-more-internati…
I am pretty sure that's a piss take, even if it closely mirrors the truth about the current Aussie situation...
NZ Property Market must be a very worrying to some in the Lucky county.
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