Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has cut most of its key fixed rates to levels below its main rivals. More here. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ has but most of its term deposit rates. More here. And the Wairarapa Building Society (WBS) has trimmed all its savings account rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
DEMAND STAYS WEAK, PRODUCTION TURNS UP
After falls in May and June ANZ's Truckometer Index turned upwards in July. The Light Traffic Index rose 1.4% and is 0.9% higher than a year ago. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index lifted 1.8% in the month, and is up 2.8% year-on-year.
NOT GOOD, WHATEVER WAY YOU LOOK AT IT
In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume of ready-mixed concrete delivered fell -5.9% in the June quarter, following a +0.6% rise in the March quarter. But the actual volume of ready-mixed concrete produced was 891,909 m3, down -10% compared with the same June quarter a year ago. In Auckland the decline was -4.7%, in Wellington it was a massive -22% lower, and in Christchurch it was almost -13% lower. For the year to June, 3.7 mln m3 of ready-mixed concrete was produced, down -6.0% compared with the year ended June 2024.
FRESH FRUIT A GROWING STRENGTH
New analysis by Rabobank shows New Zealand was the 15th largest fruit exporter globally. Fresh fruit exports rose by +33% to US$2.9 bln in 2024, and the early months of 2025 suggest a further significant increase in fresh export values is likely for 2025. The trade is dominated by kiwifruit which delivers almost ¾ on the export value, with apples delivering 21%. In volume terms the shares are 64% and 31%. Fresh fruit imports are low, led by bananas, at US$344 mln. So fresh fruit delivers a large trade surplus.
NZX50 HESITATES TODAY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2% so far today. It is unchanged over the past five days but down -1.4% year-to-date. It is sitting +4.9% higher year-on-year. Turners, Investore, Oceania, and SkyCity casino gain while Ryman, Meridian, Spark, and Briscoes all slip. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.2% today.
INSURANCE WARNING
New research by ECNZ(NIWA) and Waikato University scientists involving the latest climate updates and the experience of 1800 years of history records, shows that emissions stay at current 'high' levels extreme rainfall from cyclones could rise by more than a third across the southwest Pacific, including for ex-tropical cyclones impacting New Zealand. None of this suggests the costs of insurance, let alone remediation & recovery, are going to stay at current levels.
A WAY OUT?
Troubled meat processor Alliance Group has now settled on a way forward out of its high debt and extended losses. It is selling 65% toi Irish processor Dawn Meats and using most of the funds to pay down its debt. There are still regulatory and political hurdles to overcome however before the deal goes unconditional.
IMPROVING, EVEN IF A SMALL ONE, BUT A 3 YR HIGH
Australia’s NAB Business Confidence Index rose to +7 in July from +5 in the prior month, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain and the highest reading since August 2022. It is a result better than the expected +3 index level. However, business conditions eased but remained solid overall, with slower sales growth, softer profitability, and weaker employment. NAB commented that "The survey is consistent with improving economic growth, although still highlights the challenges around cost pressures faced by many businesses".
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably stable today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.14% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 4.28%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 1.73%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is holding at 4.44% while down -1 bp at 4.41% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp from yesterday at 4.28%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY POSITIVE
The local equity market is now down -0.3% in late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up strongly again, up +2.5% to a new all-time high. Hong Kong is down -0.3% at its open but Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore has opened down -0.3%. Wall Street ended its Monday session weaker than anticipated, down -0.3%. It is interesting that, apart from Tokyo, which had other motivations, Asian equity markets did not rise on the US trade truce on China tariffs.
OIL HOLDS
The oil price in the US is up +50 USc from yesterday at this time, now just on US$64/bbl and holding its lower level. And the international Brent price is still over US$66.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE DORMANT
There were some modest trades today and the price dipped very slightly to $56.90. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SOFT AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$25 from this time yesterday at US$3352/oz. Gold got no fillip on Trump's tariff backdown.
NZD IN MINOR EASING
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps again at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 51.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -10 bps at 67.1.
BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$119,045 and down -2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has remained modest, although slightly lower, at just on +/-1.6%.
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55 Comments
New research by ECNZ(NIWA) and Waikato University scientists involving the latest climate updates and the experience of 1800 years of history records, shows that emissions stay at current 'high' levels extreme rainfall from cyclones could rise by more than a third across the southwest Pacific, including for ex-tropical cyclones impacting New Zealand. None of this suggests the costs of insurance, let alone remediation & recovery, are going to stay at current levels.
Not good for Riverhead?
Actually, it is good that the amount of concrete being poured, is lessening.
Speaking on behalf of my grandkids.
How would we show the world we're prosperous, if not for concrete usage.
The Japanese are so prosperous, they line their waterways with it.
I had a friend whose thesis touched on contracts during the Vietnam war.
There were enough concrete contracts let, to cover the South 4 inches deep.
It isn't, so someone was on the take...
not as much as the steel supplier for said slab, made off like a bandit
Not wanting to be the harbinger of bad news, but recently when thinking of the next global deleveraging/crash, we should be thinking about crypto. I've noticed the johnny-come-latelys to the ol' rat poison behaving very much like cult members - the behaviors on display is work for the anthropologists to deconstruct. And the scary thing to me about this is that you see many of the OGs egging them on and being quoted by the 'new disciples' as if they've discovered the Gospel.
Now, even if we assume BTC is a legitimate asset class, there's still USD1.8 trillion of other crypto crap floating around. If half of it gets wiped, that's an air pocket 20x bigger than Lehman Bros. It's 35% of the entire NASDAQ drawdown in 2000 that took weeks / months to come in. This could happen way quicker, given no stops and the leverage in crypto. With all the garbage, we still have a massive air pocket in "assets" that don't technically have a "deep value" price because they're worth $0. With selloffs, margin calls and hyper-leverage, this could quickly echo to equity markets and other parts of the economy where crypto is now deeply entrenched. It's likely BTC would deleverage at least 20% at first, even if the "flight to BTC" thesis takes hold.
The superb Quoth the Raven has a related article on this (https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/crypto-will-cause-the-next-trillon)
“We’ve lifted things so high that every time we have a problem, the Fed’s supposed to save us — and they will. But I think what we’re going to start now is a cat-and-mouse game between normalization of very expensive equities… and the most significant systemic risk I’ve ever seen — Bitcoin.”
- Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Senior Macro Strategist
I wonder if anyone other than Crypto owners would be affected by a Crypto crash? I don't own any, maybe my Kiwisaver fund owns a small amount I am not sure. Most people I know that own it only own a small amount they are prepared to lose.
It depends. If the financial institutions are loaded up with all the garbage, potentially. If it's just the savings of the millennials, nobody really cares.
Another point of concern is directly related to BTC. Companies are loading up on it like there's no tomorrow. Of course, MicroStrategy is the leader here. And why are they doing it? Because their core business is essentially finished and they're transforming into BTC treasury companies, possibly with the goal of becoming banks in the future.
I did due diligence on the Japanese BTC treasury MetaPlanet and to understand their core business (how can a listed public company have a single 3-star hotel as their core business be listed?) and the background of their key people. Intriguing yet dubious. MetaPlanet is now one of the most traded stocks in Japan. Something doesn't add up. I hope the Japan Financial Services Agency is watching closely.
Another point of concern is directly related to BTC. Companies are loading up on it like there's no tomorrow
Isn't that what people want though, as many people as possible to own the stuff?
Once every man and his dog is into this, everyone will make money. Or is that Amway, I forget.
Not many people as a % of 8-10bil own any BTC directly, a bit via funds etc.
Most people own some gold as jewelery, not many as coins or bullion
its like buying property back in the 1850s
Get in there and leave your grandkids a fortune to waste
THIS POST WILL STAND THE TEST OF TIME
I am old school I prefer gold but accept BTC maybe 10%
LOL. Amway.
Hadn't heard the name in a long time!
Think of it less as a pyramid scheme, and more of a rhombus.
Likewise Kate, I remember when at the end of the day shearing sheep, one of the shearers put up a board and tried to sell us Amway. And not only sell us the products but for us to invest under him. Total ponzi.
By the time a Ponzi gets to th whip-end of NZ, it hasn't long to go...
I got asked along to a meeting once - looked like a southern baptist revival meeting. A certain cohort get taken in, for sure.
text "take my money" to
its so so so easy once you know how, its hard not to
I wonder if anyone other than Crypto owners would be affected by a Crypto crash?
The problem will come from larger institutional holders. Too big to fail, etc.
That and a crypto crash will likely occur the same time the meme stocks shit the bed.
The problem will come from larger institutional holders. Too big to fail, etc.
That and a crypto crash will likely occur the same time the meme stocks shit the bed.
Yes. My reckon is that if it happens to take down institutional BTC, the opportunities for individuals to pick at the carcass will be limited. The U.S. govt, JPM will ensure they get to hoover it up first.
The big boys can now buy downside options and derivatives to protect themselves in BTC JC is right its the crap coins vulnerable
lets face it the entire stack is like Jenja, it has its vulnerabilities...
Not wanting to be the harbinger of bad news, but recently when thinking of the next global deleveraging/crash, we should be thinking about crypto. I've noticed the johnny-come-latelys to the ol' rat poison behaving very much like cult members
Uhhh, I think you'll find that's all of them.
and TSLA holders.
Your all showing your age.
BTC is a really interesting project and idea. Its completely outside the normal control of traditional banking interests, and Govenments. That alone is a big part of its appeal. It's a vote of no confidence in the FIAT monetary systems, and the assets that model bloats.
Has it become and object of speculation... absolutly. But it's by far not the only thing that is. Old cars, art, houses etc etc. Whats it really worth...dunno. People couldn't trade Dusenbergs for food in 1929, especially if there was no fuel available when things got bad.
Time will tell.
That's generally how I view it, like a collectible market.
It's a horrendous idea, because the ownership structure of the coins is dictated by the founder, with zero accountability or oversight. It resolves nothing.
BTC is a really interesting project and idea. Its completely outside the normal control of traditional banking interests, and Govenments. That alone is a big part of its appeal. It's a vote of no confidence in the FIAT monetary systems, and the assets that model bloats.
So you're OK with paper BTC sold to you by corporate interests and the likes of Blackrock?
Many of the margin accounts are probably secured by BTC holdings, so if she goes BTC is the sale of choice to recover the losses by the margin clerks err ... bots.... great buying opp, if you have big enough balls
looks of under 25s in the 1.8 trill
same thing happens in gold, it falls with the big crash as margin clerks close BUY INTO IT, only about 40 years of experience sitting on massive trading floors talking.
In a big crash gold is what people rush to buy, therefore its the easiest asset to sell in a big crash as their is buy side liquidity, therefore margin clerks who have to sell something sell your gold if you have it within their reach to cover your losses on other things that have no buyers......
Only one word for it: Y I K E S.
The Fed cannot bail out a crypto crash - there were actual physical assets at the other end of the "liar loans" that triggered the GFC.
there were actual physical assets at the other end of the "liar loans" that triggered the GFC.
True. Just the credit to buy them was conjured up like a rabbit out of a hat. Mind you, that's no different to now.
Yes. And of course once the bailout happened - the distressed assets 'birthed' a new cohort of robber barons.
No no no
there where Insurance companies at the end of the GFC and if they where not bailed then every bond would have devalued because the hedge structure would have evapourated... markets are only functional with working hedge derivatives...
no one cares about the end holder of risk but the entire market depends on functional hedge structures because physical is now so removed from derivatives
split well identified.
Aye, there's the rub.
NO ONE cares about the little guy PDK, the show has to go on
Yup - Obama.
a cat-and-mouse game between normalization of very expensive equities… and the most significant systemic risk I’ve ever seen — Bitcoin
Is this not seen as simply the exact same as what we see in the S&P500, with greater and greater reliance on the top few companies to carry the entire spread? Many are seeing the overvaluation in the S&P500 and punting some of their investment to bitcoin. Clearly many more that I'd realised. Still, it looks more and more every day like before the great depression, except with the larger institutions and many investors banking on today that the fed will bail them out tomorrow for their own poor choices. Let it burn if it must I say. 2008 was now 17years ago and we need a decent unwinding to shock the world back to reality that actions have consequences, lest we continue this charade of normality while too many think themselves invincible.
Market Breadth has collapsed. Please trade accordingly.
"New research by ECNZ(NIWA) ........" NIWA is full of climate alarmists. The insurance companies will be rubbing their hands at the opportunity to quote the study and put up their premiums.
That Rodney flood was an eye opener for me, the council 100 year lines held but just.... to be honest if they had not held there would have been nothing downstream of me left, I am at about 70m above sea level.
If you are stupid enough to buy in a flood plane or build I do not think I should have to pay for your stupidity.
That includes front row Omaha and Corrammandal seafront worth 5 mil
If you are stupid enough to buy in a flood plane or build I do not think I should have to pay for your stupidity.
Totally agree. But this is expecting the stupid to be also expect to be accountable.
You didn't die so it was clearly a hoax just like covid vaccines, bro
More climate porn from NIWA using an implausible SSP370 high emission scenario. Lapped up uncritically by the click bait media. Perhaps Interest.co.nz should clarify for the punters at home what the "high" emission scenario SSP370 is?
This is without factoring plummeting birth rates, that see countries like China population halving by 2100.
"Under SSP3-7.0 by 2100, global coal consumption increases by ~230% over 2023 levels, reaching more than 50% of total energy consumption. What does that mean in more comprehensible terms? The additional ~380 exajoules of coal consumption by 2100 implies the building of more than 7,500 new coal plants (1GW) or more than 100 new plants per year from 2025 to 2100.4
In parallel, under SSP3-7.0 by 2100, the share of carbon-free energy consumption shrinks by two-thirds in relative terms, with fossil fuels making up more than 94% of total consumption.
...Consider that SSP3-7.0 projects almost 13 billion people in 2100, which today is not just implausible, but near impossible."
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/constructing-climate-catastrophism
https://www.vu.edu.au/about-vu/news-events/news/chinas-population-shrin…
I would love to help achieve that population goal but I am probably to old to make a decent difference.... I could try though.
Yes. If they did use SSP3-7.0, I just don't know why they use those high end scenarios for public policy work - it's so blatantly ridiculous when there are IPCCs own preferred (mid-range) scenario for policy purposes. IPCC points out the high end ones are there for stress-testing climate models (not stress-testing public policy).
Do they get some kind of benefit - from someone/something - for being so alarmist? Does it have something to do with their scientific papers getting higher citations - and hence better academic ratings. It just doesn't make any sense to me.
You wouldn't do a 25 year forecast for a company because of all the veriables that you would get wrong. So why do we think the climate models are right when they do a 25 year forecast.
No Kate - they understand systems and feed-back loops.
These things ain't linear - but most folk think in linear fashion.
We are probably fried - 2 degrees is feedback territory, meaning 3, meaning 5, 9...
Shovelling coal on a runaway train, which Profile fudges numbers of people with actual energy-consumption (which per-head, you use more than a medieval king could, and over your lifetime you have increased your consumption - trust me).
they understand systems and feed-back loops.
If by "they" you mean NIWA scientists - are you saying "they" know more than the IPCCs plethora of scientists about systems and feedback loops?
Profile's points about what the SSP3-7.0 scenario input assumptions are (i.e., those systems and feedback loops taken into account) is entirely correct. They are not Profile's inputs/assumptions - they are the IPCC scientists who are working on developing them (the different 'forcing' scenarios).
So, if I get you right - you're saying NIWA are right to use a scenario that IPCC do not recommend is used for the purpose "they" (NIWA) have used it for?
Or are you just saying that we should always use the worst-case-scenario, because nothing but the worst-case can happen? Even according to the MIT study - population declines (round about this decade, I believe)? So, Profile's point about that is valid, isn't it? (i.e., that scenario predicts population numbers that even the MIT study do not)?
It is amusing that peak oil tragic supports such a scenario! Where are they going to get this coal from PDK? Where are the going to get the population from? You can't have it both ways. Is it peak coal or ramping up to 230% higher coal consumption by 2100 (plus 100 per coal plants per year to reach that consumption)? If you can't find your coal, build your coal plants and find 13 billion people in a <2.1 TFR world you can't have your high scenario. Why would you use coal when you can use PV like your good self?
2 degrees of warming will get us back to the Polynesian Warm Period, before the Little Ice Age, and our historic kumara growing range. What's not to like?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coal-production-per-capita-over-the-…
Todays news headlines are heartbreaking
- The 3 year old who watched his mom die due to the boat and trailer coming loose ( why did the driver do a runner?)
- The guy who lived with his murdered GF body for a month , now out on parole... wanting to start coding again? you really have to read it
- Winston Peters and the entire sage re david Seymour and the UN Official on indiginous rights
- Watercare so behind in Maintenance that nothing can be built on the northern flank of the city REALLY FIRE THE CEO AND PLANNERs now was that CLOWN on 800k a year?
Is it a F*^king clown show right now? this is brewing news... how can we make NZ great again when this crap is endemic?
Sorry Luxy the train is going to look crap even if you get it back on the tracks
we are not even going to make it to PowerDownKiwis limits of growth, simple stupidity is going to stop even this goal
I take it you are referring to this article re Watercare?
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/watercare-dashes-neighbours-attempts-to-…
Its no just him its the entire Hibiscus coast..... so how can such a big area suddenly have no viable new water connections
This is something we should be able to sue for.
Its 100% crazy town - This is our biggest city FFS and the planners now think they can stop all development until 2031?
I personally could profit as my sub divison is via septic tank dripper line hence at least I could sell into demand but still this smells of incompetence.
For what it's worth, the driver in the first story stayed and spoke to police. RNZ updated their story but other news outlets may not have bothered (NZ Herald per chance?).
Link to RNZ story: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/569670/mother-died-in-crash-after-b…
And then I googled: The guy who lived with his murdered GF body for a month - and got links to four different instances of men doing this over the last 15 years or so. Good grief.
Nonetheless, as others state all over the internet, the 2006 movie "Idiocracy" is looking less like fiction and more like a documentary.
ok re the 3 year old, that made me so so sad today , I was down all day I am sure it was an accident but wow, downer.
Maybe I am just an old fart .... was it this crazy back then?
I am almost about to cut off news and social media I do not need to have this little faith in humanity at my age
I know I have made my share of mistakes and bad decisions in my life, YES , not sure I can cope from the news of these poor choices of 5 million NZers on a daily basis, am I saying i do not want this level of social media / news reporting... probably yes.
The living with dead bodies stuff is next level, apart from the killing just before said living with, also just nuts
lets face it plenty of nuts
I dunno - a teacher at my intermediate school, 1966, died on holiday. His wife propped him up in the back seat and drove him around for a week.
We're a disparate bunch
Yeah but due to social media now 10 billion people can tell me this crazy local story and in reality i just do not give a F
I am about to go on a yearly 4 day trout fishing thing, where almost no one checks much social media. I suggest we all value this event due to the distraction or cut off of social media. ie you are just with trusted friends doing cool, things. I think people like being cut off or detoxed from the stream of constant BS.
no media July would do us all good, perhaps better then no booze, do not see NZ ME suggesting this though.
I once went up to the pacific on my boat for 5 months, i had shortwave radio only as news, I got back and nothing had really changed....how about a news free July... let that sink in we could expand it if people liked it, trust me it works
I think people like being cut off or detoxed from the stream of constant BS.
I regularly take people hours from civilisation, with no phones. Just a bit of exploring, some campfires and a bit of shenanigans. No one ever misses the phones.
It's not much different to smoking, eating, or any other empty habitual pleasure seeking. Oh except it totally corrupts and distorts people's views of reality.
I'd say fishing and booze with good friends sounds like a cracker idea, everyone needs a reset.
its worked for 20 years no one says you must detox but there are 100% things to keep you off phone LIKE real iife interactions
I am not pretending that its perfect but I bet about 90% of interest posters could share a similar experience where a cutoff of all social media helped mental health and overall social engagement once, and they really noticed it when it was sort of done regular basis.
duck shooting
stag
etc
I think most of us know how we should be living. But routinely do the opposite.
Ideally you want to be content in your own skin, without the need to fill your time and attention with anything at all.
We're humans, and we have flaws and hard wiring that is being more and more exploited by the day (attention, limbic system). Quite sickening when you think about it. The human motivational system being harvested for profit like we are plumbed into the matrix. And they try telling us less regulation is the gateway to success. Clearly the evidence of the world biggest experiment called social media shows otherwise.
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