A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; markets absorb ANZ rate cuts, truckometer reveals weakish demand, much less concrete poured, Alliance now has a plan, swaps stable, NZD softish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has cut most of its key fixed rates to levels below its main rivals. More here. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ has but most of its term deposit rates. More here. And the Wairarapa Building Society (WBS) has trimmed all its savings account rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

DEMAND STAYS WEAK, PRODUCTION TURNS UP
After falls in May and June ANZ's Truckometer Index turned upwards in July. The Light Traffic Index rose 1.4% and is 0.9% higher than a year ago. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index lifted 1.8% in the month, and is up 2.8% year-on-year.

NOT GOOD, WHATEVER WAY YOU LOOK AT IT
In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume of ready-mixed concrete delivered fell -5.9% in the June quarter, following a +0.6% rise in the March quarter. But the actual volume of ready-mixed concrete produced was 891,909 m3, down -10% compared with the same June quarter a year ago. In Auckland the decline was -4.7%, in Wellington it was a massive -22% lower, and in Christchurch it was almost -13% lower. For the year to June, 3.7 mln m3 of ready-mixed concrete was produced, down -6.0% compared with the year ended June 2024.

FRESH FRUIT A GROWING STRENGTH
New analysis by Rabobank shows New Zealand was the 15th largest fruit exporter globally. Fresh fruit exports rose by +33% to US$2.9 bln in 2024, and the early months of 2025 suggest a further significant increase in fresh export values is likely for 2025. The trade is dominated by kiwifruit which delivers almost ¾ on the export value, with apples delivering 21%. In volume terms the shares are 64% and 31%. Fresh fruit imports are low, led by bananas, at US$344 mln. So fresh fruit delivers a large trade surplus.

NZX50 HESITATES TODAY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2% so far today. It is unchanged over the past five days but down -1.4% year-to-date. It is sitting +4.9% higher year-on-year. Turners, Investore, Oceania, and SkyCity casino gain while Ryman, Meridian, Spark, and Briscoes all slip. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.2% today.

INSURANCE WARNING
New research by ECNZ(NIWA) and Waikato University scientists involving the latest climate updates and the experience of 1800 years of history records, shows that emissions stay at current 'high' levels extreme rainfall from cyclones could rise by more than a third across the southwest Pacific, including for ex-tropical cyclones impacting New Zealand. None of this suggests the costs of insurance, let alone remediation & recovery, are going to stay at current levels.

A WAY OUT?
Troubled meat processor Alliance Group has now settled on a way forward out of its high debt and extended losses. It is selling 65% toi Irish processor Dawn Meats and using most of the funds to pay down its debt. There are still regulatory and political hurdles to overcome however before the deal goes unconditional.

IMPROVING, EVEN IF A SMALL ONE, BUT A 3 YR HIGH
Australia’s NAB Business Confidence Index rose to +7 in July from +5 in the prior month, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain and the highest reading since August 2022. It is a result better than the expected +3 index level. However, business conditions eased but remained solid overall, with slower sales growth, softer profitability, and weaker employment. NAB commented that "The survey is consistent with improving economic growth, although still highlights the challenges around cost pressures faced by many businesses".

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably stable today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.14% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 4.28%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 1.73%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is holding at 4.44% while down -1 bp at 4.41% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp from yesterday at 4.28%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY POSITIVE
The local equity market is now down -0.3% in late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up strongly again, up +2.5% to a new all-time high. Hong Kong is down -0.3% at its open but Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore has opened down -0.3%. Wall Street ended its Monday session weaker than anticipated, down -0.3%. It is interesting that, apart from Tokyo, which had other motivations, Asian equity markets did not rise on the US trade truce on China tariffs.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price in the US is up +50 USc from yesterday at this time, now just on US$64/bbl and holding its lower level. And the international Brent price is still over US$66.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE DORMANT
There were some modest trades today and the price dipped very slightly to $56.90. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFT AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$25 from this time yesterday at US$3352/oz. Gold got no fillip on Trump's tariff backdown.

NZD IN MINOR EASING
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps again at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 51.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -10 bps at 67.1.

BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$119,045 and down -2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has remained modest, although slightly lower, at just on +/-1.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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