What happened Wednesday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; BNZ responds to ANZ's mortgage rate cut, QV sees house values falling, retail gets a minor lift, ASB hikes dividend sharply, exporters happy, swaps & NZD little-changed, & more

13th Aug 25, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ has responded to ANZ's home loan rate cuts. More here. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SOFT WITH LOWER VALUES
The housing market still adjusting to a softer economic environment, QV says. Values are declining over winter.

TENTATIVE RECOVERY
Electronic cards data for July shows that seasonally adjusted retail spending rose for the second consecutive month, with gains in hospitality and consumables somewhat offset by continued weakness in durables and apparel

BIG PROFIT STABLE, BID DIVIDEND JUMPS
ASB reported annual results today. Their $1.35 bln June-year cash profit was flat as expense growth keep pace with income. Staff numbers rose from 5,983 a year ago to 6,751, a +12.8% increase. These same results show ASB paid owner CBA a $1.8 bln dividend, up from +$800 mln the prior year (+125%).

NZX50 FIRMER TODAY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.4% so far today. It is down -0.6% over the past five days and down -2.0% year-to-date. But it is sitting +4.0% higher year-on-year. Vulcan Steel jumped +6.5%, Mainfreight, Oceania Healthcare, Vector also rise, offset by falls in Briscoes, Tower, Ryman, and Sky TV. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.2%.

COMMERCIAL PROPERTY TOUGHER
Property investor Vital Healthcare Property Trust released results and guidance. There were no surprises, except that their gearing got worse. Investors expect them to sell down some of their portfolio to shore this aspect up. (H/T NAM)

EXPORTERS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF TRADE AGREEMENTS
Our exporters are showing real resilience, with 79% maintaining or growing export volumes over the past year, even as global trade tensions rise and tariffs on US-bound goods jump to 15%. The 2025 ExportNZ DHL Export Barometer reveals exporters are optimistic, with 59% expecting growth in the next 12 months. And there is adaptability evident with firms diversifying into markets like the UK and Japan, driven by new trade agreements and shifting global dynamics.

MORE PROPERTY INVESTMENT
In Australia (and under pressure from a recent government-led investor roundtable), their corporate, markets, financial services and consumer credit regulator ASIC has announced that it is looking at easing rules for their superannuation funds to invest even more in their property sector.

LITHIUM RECOVERS
We should probably note that lithium carbonate prices, which have been easing consistently since early 2024, have jumped +9.4% in the past week on a sharp improvement on prospects. These prices are now at 2025 highs.

SPAM/SCAM WARNING
We have reports that scammers are using our journalists names in crude email scamming attempts. Yes, they use our personal names, but the email domain name is not interest.co.nz. Don't respond to any emails purporting to be from us if it doesn't end in @interest.co.nz. Our journalists never ask you to buy anything (we area free service).

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably a bit mixed today although softish at the short end. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 3.15% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.24%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.73%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 4.42% and also down -2 bps at 4.39% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps from yesterday at 4.24%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY POSITIVE AGAIN
The local equity market is now up +0.5% in late Wednesday trade. The ASX200 however is down -0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up strongly yet again, up another +1.4% to a new all-time high. Hong Kong is also up +1.4% at its open but Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore has opened up +1.0%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session stronger that expected, up +1.1%.

OIL DIPS
The oil price in the US is down -US$1 from yesterday at this time, now just on US$63/bbl and holding its lower level. And the international Brent price is now just on US$66/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There were some modest trades again today and the price firmed very slightly back to $57.00. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is little-changed from this time yesterday, still at US$3352/oz.

NZD IN MINOR FIRMING
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday at 59.6 USc because of the downgrade in the USD. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up a bit more than +10 bps at 67.2.

BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$119,557 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just under +/-0.9%.

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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30 Comments

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 13th Aug 25, 4:31pm 1755059478

In Australia (and under pressure from a recent government-led investor roundtable), their corporate, markets, financial services and consumer credit regulator ASIC has announced that it is looking at easing rules for their superannuation funds to invest even more in their property sector.

If there were any country that has gone all in on black on their Ponzi, it has to be Aussie. Question is where does it end. My reckon is that it doesn't end. The consequences are too great for it not to. Was discussing this with a professional colleague who pointed out that CGT imposition in 1985 made no difference to constraining mkt prices. I pointed out that while I understand what he's saying, M2 money supply has increased 10-fold over the same time period.

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 13th Aug 25, 4:30pm 1755059448

U.S. national debt has officially passed $37 trillion as of August 2025. Treasury Department data confirms that gross federal debt reached this historic milestone in early August, this is well ahead of earlier projections (which had expected this threshold to be crossed after 2030).

So about $1 trillion in debt accumulated this year so far. As a rule of thumb, debt increasing by $1 trillion every 5 months is the 'new normal'. The debt accumulation rate is 2x greater than historical norms.

In many respects, it makes ratty's dynamics look quite sober.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-national-debt-reaches-recor…

by Pa1nter | 13th Aug 25, 5:03pm 1755061383

Countries can't go broke.

Just keep chucking money at it till it rights itself.

I'll be RBNZ governor for 50% off.

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 13th Aug 25, 5:39pm 1755063591

This is true P. Just numbers really. Cut off a string of zeros for ease of comprehension and not to spook the sheeple.

by IT GUY | 13th Aug 25, 5:48pm 1755064128

Just the interest on the US 35triilion is mind blowing

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 13th Aug 25, 5:59pm 1755064785

Existing legal provisions (e.g., Section 2.10 of the Financial Accounting Manual of the Federal Reserve Banks) allow the Treasury Secretary - at the President’s direction - to instruct the Fed to remonetize gold held by the Treasury. This means gold could be officially revalued to a much higher price per ounce (e.g., $20,000), creating trillions of dollars that the Treasury could use, without physically selling any gold.

For each $4,000/oz increase in gold’s official price, roughly $1trillion in funds could be created. So, a revaluation to $20,000/oz (from the current statutory $42.22/oz) could provide up to $5trillion, which could be used to retire government debt, dropping the debt-to-GDP ratio considerably.

If you revalue gold enough to buy down your debt so that you have low debt levels, then you can make more dramatic changes to the economic system without running the risk of blowing up the financial system.

by interesting1234 | 13th Aug 25, 9:31pm 1755077476

Basically they want to do whatever they want and expect the world to accept it, and tweak the rules/values how they see fit to do so. Oh what a world it will be when america faces the worlds reality of bailing on the USD. The issue IMO isn't necessarily what they are doing, it is the human behavioural factor that the world either is in denial that, or too afraid to conceive, a world where the USD isn't the reserve currency and too much change and pain will occur. Humans are not adept to change, behaviour takes time or shock and necessity to happen. I see the S&P500 crashing hard and fast when it does, and americans revolting in the streets nationwide as the go back to another depression. Hard call, but their trajectory seems to make it imminent, and all it will take is the rest of the world finally taking that last step to pull away. No amount of nukes can save them form their own economic fallacy that they can be the world police forever.

by Let me be Frank | 13th Aug 25, 5:53pm 1755064439

"Countries can't go broke."

...but they can dissolve.

by JimboJones | 13th Aug 25, 6:52pm 1755067923

The country doesn’t go broke, just the citizens.

by Pa1nter | 13th Aug 25, 6:56pm 1755068208

But the government can just give them money

by JimboJones | 13th Aug 25, 9:06pm 1755075969

They can, but it will be worthless.

by Pa1nter | 13th Aug 25, 9:27pm 1755077243

Still not broke though, right?

by IT GUY | 13th Aug 25, 9:40pm 1755078034

no just very hungry

by Let me be Frank | 13th Aug 25, 9:45pm 1755078323

Was it worthless during covid?...is it worthless now?

You do understand that either directly or indirectly all NZD is government issued and all economic activity in this country is simply moving that created currency around.

Worthless?...perhaps but then an awful lot of people appear to disagree with you.

by Pa1nter | 14th Aug 25, 7:04am 1755111863

It's definitely worth less.

by Let me be Frank | 14th Aug 25, 8:30am 1755117003

But more than previously....funny that.

by JimboJones | 13th Aug 25, 6:47pm 1755067643

Still a long way until they catch up to Japan or Singapore.

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 13th Aug 25, 6:26pm 1755066414

Asics Corporation stock up 17% today. Now up 1,000%+ in past 5 years. A tribute to innovation in manufacturing and a business with a clear and consistent brand identity focused on high-quality, performance-oriented footwear. Rather than chasing every short-lived trend, they stuck to their core values, which has built trust and loyalty among consumers.

Something for Aotearoa to learn what makes businesses tick.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TSE-7936/ 

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 13th Aug 25, 7:34pm 1755070475

Missed key point: Nikkei 225 hits a record high for the second day in a row. Now 11% above the pre-bubble peak.

by profile | 13th Aug 25, 11:10pm 1755083417

Ardern, Chippy, Verrall, Bloomfield too gutless to face the Covid inquiry but happy to take the lifetime public paycheck and honours.

We will now never know why these people ignored MOH advice and keep minutes from public view. Disgraceful.

Two Shots for Summer Hipkins ignoring MOH advice on experimental gene therapy for young people.

“...consequently, CV TAG expressed concern about vaccine mandates requiring younger age groups (e.g. <18 years) to be vaccinated with 2 doses of the Pfizer vaccine and stated: ‘consideration should be given to permitting younger people who have had one dose to be permitted to work or undertake other activities covered by the mandate’. This particular detail has not been carried through to the implementation of this advice”

https://cranmer.substack.com/p/covid-and-our-kiwi-kids-part-2?r=1q83zj&…

"In addition, there is clear evidence in the official documents that it was agreed that references to increasing dosing intervals as a method of potentially providing some protection against myocarditis should be removed from public communications."

https://cranmer.substack.com/p/covid-and-our-kiwi-kids-part-1

"The median Infection Fatality Rate was 0.0003% at 0–19 years, 0.002% at 20–29 years"

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001393512201982X

"...We perform matched case-control studies and find increased risks of myocarditis and pericarditis during the first week following vaccination, and particularly after the second dose"

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31401-5

"We estimate that 22,000 - 30,000 previously uninfected adults aged 18-29 must be boosted with an mRNA vaccine to prevent one COVID-19 hospitalisation. Using CDC and sponsor-reported adverse event data, we find that booster mandates may cause a net expected harm: per COVID-19 hospitalisation prevented in previously uninfected young adults, we anticipate 18 to 98 serious adverse events, including 1.7 to 3.0 booster-associated myocarditis cases in males, and 1,373 to 3,234 cases of grade ≥3 reactogenicity which interferes with daily activities. Given the high prevalence of post-infection immunity, this risk-benefit profile is even less favourable. University booster mandates are unethical because: 1) no formal risk-benefit assessment exists for this age group; 2) vaccine mandates may result in a net expected harm to individual young people; 3) mandates are not proportionate: expected harms are not outweighed by public health benefits given the modest and transient effectiveness of vaccines against transmission;"

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4206070

by IT GUY | 13th Aug 25, 7:17pm 1755069454

It is so important that this all comes out..... Never again

by rolande | 13th Aug 25, 7:33pm 1755070392

I am keen to find out what happened with the procurement of the vaccines. NZ was "close to the top of the queue". Then we weren't. A few interviews got close to it. But they never explained publicly.

This delay partly resulted in the Auckland lockdown, which was based on not having a high enough vaccine uptake.

by kiwikidsnz | 13th Aug 25, 7:43pm 1755071010

IIRC NZ vaccine delivery was 2-3 months delayed from the suppliers original delivery date: contemporary reports included such "reasons" as Health officials & govt ministers taking an extended holiday in January 2021, a key late Dec 2020 purchase confirmation email from the supplier being overlooked for 2 months & Jacinda telling the supplier to give the first part of the NZ vaccine allocation to the Pacific Islands first ..

Also the secret no vaccine dispensation given to thousands of health workers at the same time as mandatory vaccinations required for the rest of us to keep working in our jobs

Yes, we should know the truth & hopefully the lessons learned.

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 13th Aug 25, 8:31pm 1755073866

Health officials & govt ministers taking an extended holiday in January 2021

Lol. While elsewhere in the world, the leaders were at battle stations.

by mfd | 14th Aug 25, 2:33am 1755095632

I can't tell you that the vaccine dispensation for some health workers didn't exist, but I can tell you that in my service a colleague went right down to the wire to get vaccinated and would have been fired if they hadn't gone through with it.

by kiwikidsnz | 14th Aug 25, 5:56am 1755107775

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/133104602/fact-check-did-1100…;

by profile | 14th Aug 25, 7:09am 1755112151

Which is galling for people who were hospitalized after the first jab then not given an exemption by Bloomfield and forced to take a second job against their GPs request. Madness. Who did Bloomfield think he was to override a GP? Just to push a few experimental gene therapy sales.

by interesting1234 | 14th Aug 25, 8:12am 1755115965

Yes Bloomfield signed his name to everything in that regard, and should, as the face of the MoH, be held accountable for this in every way, for hose who have permanent adverse effects of the vaccine. The now late father of a good friend had a myriad of health complications, to the point if he was hospitalised, a team of specialists had to be flown in from around the country to solve the puzzle, so-to-speak to help him (balance medications, monitor reactions to changes etc). He was on a variety of medications and was strongly recommended by his GP against vaccination for the risk vs reward rationale given his plethora of complications. No exemption said Mr Bloomfield. Sickening. And to think such vulnerable people were removed form parts of society for protecting their own complex health for what they had left? I say they ought invoke the summons to get Jacinda, Chippy, Robbo etc back in the public eye and held up in front of the country to spill their guts, and expose any mistruths given.

by kiwikidsnz | 13th Aug 25, 8:21pm 1755073286

& then there's the govt decisionmaking resukting in the $60B debt spend, the unconscionable MIQ lotteries preventing NZdrs returning to their own country...the decision to proritise overseas DJs & a Green party MPs partners entry visas...

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 13th Aug 25, 7:36pm 1755070579

Thank their lucky stars they weren't playing their game in China. When the public turns against you, the courts listen and you wouldn't see daylight for a long time.