A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; many retail rate reductions, Fonterra gets the cream, RBNZ mortgage lending data under review, swaps stable, equity losses everywhere, NZD slips, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ has trimmed its carded fixed home loan rates, essentially matching Westpac. More here. The Nelson Building Society (NBS) also trimmed its fixed rates along with floating rate reductions. Avanti Finance also adjusted its rates lower. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has ended its outstanding 4.10% six month TD offer. It has now reverted to 3.90%. You are now too late. There were also TD rate cuts from ICBC, NBS, Bank of India, WBS (Wairarapa Building Society). GoLend cut its savings rate. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

CREAM ON TOP
Fonterra said today that it had resolved its brand dispute with Australia's Bega Cheese. That means it will include the Bega brand in the sale of its consumer products division to Lactalis. In turn, that means the sale price it will receive will rise by $375 mln to $4.22 bln. More in the reaction to the overall transaction here. And the Fonterra shareholders fund shar price rose to $7.44 with the confirmation of the higher price.

NZX50 VOLATILE BUT LITTLE-CHANGED
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was volatile nut net little-changed following the US Fed news. It is now up +1.2% over the past five days and up +0.2% year-to-date. It is now sitting +4.0% higher year-on-year. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.7% today so far so the overall hold are despite the FPH headwinds. a2 Milk, Scales Corp, Mainfreight and Skellerup rise as Kathmandu, Genesis, Gentrack and Oceania fall.

PROFILE UPDATES
Today we have updated the NZX50 profiles for the following who have released the fye Annual results. Genesis Energy, Vulcan Steel.

URGENT REVISIONS UNDERWAY
The Reserve Bank is developing a new mortgage lending reporting system. Shortcomings in their current mortgage lending database had become apparent where transaction data reported was far higher than actual real estate market activity.

MORE BORROWING FOR LESS EXPENSIVE HOUSES
Given they will be under review, we should still note that new home lending as reported in the RBNZ series C31 and C33 is still rising strongly, back up to the frothy levels last seen at the end of 2021 and early 2022. What is unique in this lending is that house prices are still falling. FHB borrowing share seems to have fallen (on a volume basis) while investor lening is rising. Cheaper houses deliver better yields, apparently. There are more details here.

OPTIMISM STAYS ELEVATED
In South Korea, you may recall the huge jump in consumer sentiment in July after the peaceful resolution of the attempted executive coup there earlier in the year. The rule of law won. In August, that confidence level dropped sharply as things returned to normal. But to be fair is is still far higher than at any time in the past ten years - despite their ugly treatment by the Trump Administration.

ECONOMIC STRESS DRIVES CRAZY CHOICES
In the US, once rare seven-year car loans are fast becoming the norm. They’re often the only way buyers can afford new vehicles, with the average vehicle sale prices surging +28% in five years to approach NZ$85,000. And tariffs will make than much worse. Bloomberg is reporting that in Q2-2025, seven-year vehicle loans represented 21% of all new-vehicle financing. Six-year loans, at one time considered the upper end of the range, are now the most common, accounting for 36%. Some buyers are even now going for eight-year loans.

COOK'S FED ROLE UNDER THREAT
And staying in the US, Trump is attempting to fire a non-loyal Fed governor for made-up 'integrity' reasons (pot-kettle-black). Financial markets are volatile as a result.

SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED BUT NERVOUS
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today across the curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps at 3.01% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.31%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bps at 1.77%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 4.40%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was unchanged at 4.38% at the end of Monday trade. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from yesterday, now at 4.30%.

EQUITIES WEAKER EVERWHERE
The local equity market is now down a minor -0.1% in late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -1.1%. Hong Kong is down -0.3% and Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore has opened down -0.3%. Wall Street ended its Monday trade down -0.4% on the S&P500.

OIL UP
The oil price in the US is up +US$1 at US$64.50/bbl and the international Brent price is still just on US$68.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE STILL HARD TO KNOW WITH SO FEW TRADES
There have been very few trades yet again today, in an extended dry patch, with the price dipping down to $55.90. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD A LITTLE FIRMER
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$8 from yesterday at US$3372/oz.

NZD SLIPS MARGINALLY
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday, now at 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +1 bps to 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is softer at just under 66.2.

BITCOIN FALLS
The bitcoin price is now at US$109,801 and down -3.1% from yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just under +/-2.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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