Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The changes today include China Construction Bank cutting all its fixed rates, and selected cuts from Heretaunga Building Society (HBS), the Police Credit Union, and the Wairarapa Building Society (WBS) where their 2 year rate fell to 4.59% which is market-leading (and very unusual for a non-bank). All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
AMP and HBS has both cut TD rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
ONE SECTOR'S REVENUE BOOMS
Updated data on the rates take by local authorities nationally has extended the +10% increase rate to the last eight quarters. Over the past year, rates income has risen by +13.2%, which is about the average for the past four quarters. There has never been such a surge in the 33 year history of this quarterly data. There was a +13.8% spike in one quarter in 2003, but that was preceded by low changes, and followed by low changes. +13% rises now seem to have been normalised.
ANZ DOBS ITSELF IN
ANZ has self-reported two fair dealing breaches to the FMA. The bank remediated $5.4 mln to client affected which included more than $1 mln in interest for the delay. They changed their processes since 2023 when the issue was first identifies. Now the FMA has decided that a 'fine' payable to the Crown of $3.25 mln for the breaches is sufficient penalty.
LESS FOOD WASTE
A survey supported by Rabobank and carried out independently shows that we are wasting less food than they were two years ago, and this has been enough to push total household food waste bill lower. The survey – undertaken in late July – found the average household reported wasting 10.9% of the food they bought each week, back from 12.2% in the 2023 survey. This fall drove a drop in annual food waste per household (down to $1,364 from $1,510 in 2023) and a reduction in overall food waste bill. This fell to $3.0 bln per annum from $3.2 bln (fall of -6.25%) despite increases in weekly household food spend and the number of households.
NZX50 TURNS FIRMER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.2% in a moderately positive Monday session. And it is up +1.3% over the past working five days. It also up +1.4% year-to-date. And it is now up +4.9% from a year ago. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.3% today so far. Gentrack, Infratil, Vital Healthcare, and Spark rise, Napier Port, Tower, Channel Infrastructure, and Kathmandu retreat
A LABOUR LAW EARTHQUAKE
In Australia, a major court decision will impact hundreds of thousands of businesses. Their Federal Court has "concluded that the annual salary and set-off clause did not have the effect of relieving Woolworths and Coles of their record-keeping obligations and that clocking and rostering data were not sufficient to constitute records for the purposes of reg 3.33 and reg 3.34." It gets 'worse'. Apparently the law is written in a way so that these businesses have to prove that the accuser is wrong, rather than the accuser having to prove its case. It seems to render time-keeping records as 'not sufficient' but doesn't actually say what is 'sufficient'. Life is going to get "very interesting" for the large number of employers who have hired salaried employees - i.e. most. Some think it could cost those two large supermarkets up to AU$1 bln.
ISHIBA OUT, WHO IS NEXT?
In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned over the weekend and new candidates are lining up to replace him. Financial markets are buoyant there on the prospect that a new leaders may chase fiscal expansion.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be a little softer but not at the sort end of the curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.01% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps from this morning at 4.30%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.78%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps from this morning at 4.39%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was down -3 bps at 4.40% at the end of Friday trade. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp from this morning, now at 4.10%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is marginally firmer in Monday trade, but only up +0.1% now. The ASX200 however is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +1.4% (see above). Hong Kong up +0.2% with Shanghai down -0.1%. Singapore has opened unchanged. Wall Street futures indicate the S&P500 will open its Monday trade up +0.3%.
OIL FIRMISH
The oil price in the US is up +50 USc and now just under US$62.50/bbl with the international Brent price just over US$65/bbl.
CARBON PRICE FIRMISH
There are more trades again today and the price has firmed slightly to $57.50. The next official carbon auction is next week on September 10, 2025 and heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$4 from this morning at US$3589/oz and back up just off its record high.
NZD HOLDS FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this morning, now at 59 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at just over 66.4 and up +10 bps from this morning's open.
BITCOIN STILL ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$111,296 and again virtually unchanged from this morning. Volatility has been quite low just over +/- 0.4%.
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28 Comments
A legend ended today. Thoughts for the police involved. Hope they pull through okay.
Pretty crazy it took 4 years to get this terrible outcome...so many questions.
A legend? How so
Such a Boomer thing to ask. New Zealand's Ned Kelly and potentially a folk hero in some circles. His death made global news.
I do not really see him as the peoples hero, now the kids have no dad.
An anti-hero possibly. Legends don't usually match reality. A legend isn't necessarily positive. Think Bonnie & Clyde. There's usually just a human component that piques people's interest, like romance with B&C, and in this case, a fugitive outlaw with three young children, eluding the police, Barry Crump style, in the NZ wilderness for years. It's certainly not anything any sound person would wish to emulate but it's something you could make a movie about.
Deadbeat dad circles?
Kids lost a Dad. Cops have to live with shootout. Nothing legendary about it.
That's quite a large demographic.
Very small circles. He was no legend. He was a selfish criminal. He has likely caused irreparable psychological damage to those poor kids and has seriously maimed a police officer.
It's the eluding capture for three years and nine months under trying conditions that is the legend. The feat has it's own Wikipedia page. I'm with the police with their stern, "This has to end now!". The whole thing is a Greek Tragedy. With that I will rest my case.
The only reason he eluded capture was because the police couldn’t risk getting his kids killed in trying to apprehend him.
A missing element in this tragedy was a real hero, like a Crocodile Dundee bounty hunter, who matched Tom Phillips' resilience. Instead it was left up to Father Time. I'd choose the "safe" option too but perhaps there is a moral in this story.
In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned over the weekend and new candidates are lining up to replace him.
With Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation, Sanae Takaichi is among the front runners to lead Japan, signalling a major policy shift that will directly affect the BOJ. Takaichi’s support for maintaining low interest rates is likely to keep JPY weak and incentivize global capital outflows through the carry trade.
However, Takaichi is a woman and this would be monumental if she became Japan's first female PM.
Gold has largely stopped tracking US real interest rates since 2022, with a dramatic weakening of the historical inverse correlation that had held for decades.
What happened in 2022? Well, the US decided to not just sanction Russia for the invasion of Ukraine, but also to seize Russian assets and reserves.
The perception of the neutrality of US Treasuries has been severely damaged.
From 2005 to 2021, the correlation between gold and US real rates was strong (approx 84%) confirming the standard view: higher real rates mean lower gold prices, and vice versa.
Since 2022, the correlation plummeted to 3%, and has remained below 10% into 2025, indicating that changes in real rates now explain very little of the movement in gold prices.
https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-docs/etfs/us/insight…
Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, is actively exploring and investing in the gold sector, with CEO Paolo Ardoino describing gold as the “natural Bitcoin” due to its historic role as a store of value and complement to digital assets. Tether has already begun discussions and made initial investments in gold mining, refining, and royalty companies, aiming to diversify its profit streams beyond traditional crypto operations.
Tether already holds approximately $8.7 billion in gold bullion in Zurich, which supports its gold-backed stablecoin (XAUt).
Unfortunate that Aussie's Perth Mint didn't head down this road. They started but didn't have the necessary commitment.
https://www.ft.com/content/135fb3dd-2395-4f04-8cc6-7fb0e87cd092
A new benchmark for CEO performance pay
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/572461/why-tesla-just-threw-1-trillion…
Musk has to perform though, as it is contingent on Tesla reaching a worth of US$8.5 trillion.
Past "performance" relied on his reputation and meme worthiness rather than his leadership skills. So seems unlikely imo
I’ve got a better chance of becoming the next US president than him meeting those KPIs
"Australian Labour law earthquake...Some think it could cost those two large supermarkets up to AU$1 bln."
It will ultimately cost their customers.
I'm unfamiliar with the case & judgement however note that it apparently relates to time record keeping & overtime payments for salaried staff... which on face value seems to be an oxymoron, the point being that salaries are not wages & typically don't attract overtime payments
Salaried staff can receive overtime if it’s explicitly agreed upon in their employment contract. I am in this category. A very similar payment error has occurred in New Zealand too.
If those "savings" were being passed onto the customer by way of lower prices, it helps to explain those lower food prices in Australia.
My understanding is that workers were underpaid. Should they forgo what is owed to them? The CEOs get rewarded quite handsomely:
I didn't say the workers shouldn't receive their due, only who will really end up paying them.
I was sort of thinking out loud. Being a lowly worker my first instinct is to let bygones be bygones for the sake of the customers and the company. But, gosh, it is hard when they pay the top people so much.
Too many believe the system (political economy) we currently operate under is eternal, when in fact it is barely decades old.
If the system could be turned on its head 40 years ago what is to stop the same occurring today?
The systems we employ are our own construct...time to start thinking about how we wish them to work
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