Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
JUNE SWOON
Economic activity (GDP) fell much further than forecast in the June quarter, down -0.9% from March with manufacturing sectors declining -3.5% and construction continuing to crater. Per capita declines were even worse. However, the March quarter was revised higher. And many observers see this 'old' data out of date for what will come in Q3-2025 (which we won't get results for until just Pre-Christmas).
"EXPECT -50 BPS ON OCTOBER 8"
This awful GDP result had financial market reactions (see below) but it also socked the economics teams who follow the economy. Westpac has changed its call, now seeing a -50 bps rate cut at the October 8 Monetary Policy Statement and OCR review. They are unlikely to be the only one changing their call. In fact Kiwibank has quickly followed. These changed views are more about how the RBNZ seems likely to react rather than saying this is what they should do.
LOW RETURNS FROM PROPERTY INVESTMENT
Investors are facing some lackluster returns from residential property in the absence of capital gains. It turns out three bedroom houses were the worst performing type of residential property investment in Q2-2025.
A NEW MEMBER
Hayley Gourley, and ex-Rabobank general manager and current Seeka director, is joining the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee.
NZX50 TURNS LOWER AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.9% its Wednesday session. It is also down -0.9% over the past five working days. However it is up +0.3% year-to-date. And it is now up +4.2% from a year ago. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.0% today so far. Infratil, Meridian, Ryman, and Vector are leading the decliners while Briscoes, Heartland, Air NZ, and Turner's are the top gainers today.
LOOKING AHEAD
A week from today, Fonterra will release its 2024/25 financial results, their final milk payout level, and their dividend information (and capital return details). These will involve some of the largest non-government financial flows we will see in the economy this year.
STILL RISING
Meanwhile in the livestock sector, prices continue to rise as processors press for more supply to meet good demand. That is pushing prices up to record highs. (Our records go back to 2008.) That is true for both cattle and sheep.
HIGH DEMAND FOR LOWER YIELDS
There were 124 bids at today NZGB bond tenders for $450 mln available in two separate maturities. Those bids were of almost $1.5 bln in total. Both maturities brought yields that were lower than the prior equivalent events.
NO EXPANSION
Australian labour markets stumbled somewhat in August, falling -5,400 when a small +22,000 rise was expected. And the detail is even less positive because full-time employment fell by -40,900 to 10,077,300 people while part-time employment rose by +35,500 to 4,549,200 people. None of these changes were enough to materially change their 4.2% unemployment rate.
LAYOFFS
And staying in Australia, coal mines are closing as coal prices have retreated and are now back to 2016 levels. Companies are trying to blame 'state royalty levels' but the real driver are the low global prices.
SWAP RATES DROP SHARPLY
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be very sharply lower today across all durations, maybe by more than -10 bps at the short end. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.95% on Wednesday but will likely be sharply lower when reported tomorrow. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp from yesterday at 4.22%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.86%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.27%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was down -1 bp, also at 4.27% at the end of Wednesday trade. The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps from yesterday at this time, now at 4.07%.
EQUITIES GENERALLY LOWER, TOKYO EXCEPTED
The local equity market is down +0.8% in Thursday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +1.1%. Hong Kong however is down -0.1% with Shanghai up +0.4%. Singapore is unchanged at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session down -0.1% on the S&P500 in the aftermath of the Fed decision.
OIL DOWN
The oil price in the US is down -50 USc from yesterday at this time, now at just under US$64/bbl but the international Brent price is just under US$68/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been a few larger trades reported today, but the prices are unchanged at $57.50. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SLIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$18 from yesterday, now at US$3664/oz.
NZD SLIDES SHARPLY
The Kiwi dollar is down -50 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.3 USc on the fallout of the weak GDP result. Against the Aussie we are are down -40 bps at 89.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down another -25 bps at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now down -40 bps to just over 66.3.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$116,993 and up just +0.2% from yesterday. Volatility has been again low just under +/- 1%.
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35 Comments
It is not only the US economy that Trump is screwing. Under Trump, the US is increasingly descending into a dark place with talk shows critical of him being killed off.
After getting Colbert’s Late Show on CBS cancelled last month, Trump followed by threatening that Jimmy Kimmel’s show on ABC was next and this happened today. Both were achieved by using threats of lawsuits and political pressure against CBS and ABC with both networks caving in.
Trump is gloating and is now urging NBC to end the Jimmy Fallon Show.
So much for the First Amendment protecting freedom of speech . . . but Trump has no respect for the Constitution. With this and other actions - such as normalising the use of National Guard in largely Democratic cities - I am increasingly fearful of 2028.
Every day Trump does something that no politician in NZ would get away with! The US is becoming a joke.
Luxy cannot sign executive orders, perhaps a shame right now...
he signs weak agreements with NZF and ACT instead...
At least this will force a response, unless it does not then rates are going below 2% way below, monetary policy cannot correct a falling plane, we need direct quick fiscal to correct consumer confidence, but tax cuts take months.
TVNZ presenters taking shots at the Donald Trump doll warranted a public apology given that it's partly state-owned media.
I'm sure that doing something similar with a Jacinda doll would have generated more disapproval from the public.
those who live by cancel culture ... get canceled by it...
"TVNZ presenters taking shots at the Donald Trump doll
Explain please
Unfortunately the Overton Window is real, and we will drift that way.
And with Pam Bondi speaking about investigation/charges associated with Hate Speech - the persecutions will continue. Not doubt however, the charge won't be a felony (likely more a fine plus community service) as she can't get any Grand Jury's to agree on felony charges when they hear the evidence.
I find it comforting that the general public when picked at random to sit on a Grand Jury are proving they can see this persecution (i.e., trumped up charges) for what they are.
Bizarre to see the juxtaposition of celebrating Kirk's life as a free-speech advocate, while also trying to silence or harm any who don't mourn him suitably.
Those of us who didn't enjoy the extreme cancel culture of the early 2020s now looking around confused as the Right runs off to frolic with the left - now whoever is in power gets to silence the opposition.
The FBI targeted Martin Luther King with wiretaps, bugged hotel rooms, and extensive informant networks, leveraging personal information to undermine his reputation. The bureau circulated damaging allegations about King's character to journalists and public figures, and even sent him anonymous letters urging his suicide. These actions aimed to censor King's leadership and the spread of his civil rights message.
Not comparing MLK with Kirk, but this is relevant as a historical example of state involvement in free speech.
https://www.npr.org/2021/01/18/956741992/documentary-exposes-how-the-fb…
What's the idea here, the FBI under Kash Patel was acting against Kirk? I'm not really involved in the intricacies of the right wing ecosystem, but wouldn't they be natural allies?
It's as I described - a historical example of state involvement in free speech.
If you want something related to Kirk, the U.S. govt and other institutional actors pressured Twitter to suppress the visibility of certain conservative accounts, including Charlie Kirk’s, through tools such as “shadow banning” and blacklists. The Twitter Files documented how Twitter built secret mechanisms that limited the reach and discoverability of specific users’ content without notifying those affected. Matt Taibbi specifically highlighted correspondence and internal decisions at Twitter that suggest at influential political moments (such as the 2020 presidential election), external pressure - sometimes via media or quasi-governmental bodies - led Twitter moderators to reduce visibility for accounts like Charlie Kirk’s.
Mcarthyism another example
Lower rates coming 📉
I have been predicting lower rates, consistently, for over a year, repeating over and over again that rates will go lower than every economist and the RBNZ predict, pushing against many calls who claimed that rates would have to rise because of inflation. Consequently, I have been repeatedly advising to fix mortgages short.
yes fair claim, you seem to not link the falling house prices bit with a crashing economy, but fair call re lower OCR
The OCR hasn’t really surprised yet, pretty much doing what the RBNZ said it would give or take a few basis points.
In fact I’d say it’s been slower to get to what the RBNZ considered neutral than I expected.
Yep, and long on savings.
the only thing falling faster then ocr and gdp is the coalition polling results.... ummm. marmite sandwitch
I reckon the next poll that includes this GDP result could be ugly for them. If Labour get to the point where they could govern without the Maori party then it could change even more rapidly.
Imagine you were at a BBQ before the last election and said you were voting Labour, you’d probably have the majority of your friends berating you, so you’d say nothing. Now I reckon it’s the opposite, the National voters will keep their mouths shut at the BBQ. I reckon that is a pretty good indicator for the election result.
They'll have to clearly enunciate how they would do things differently.
they playing small target so no policy until 60 days out....
feels like national doing the same thing sadly
Coal prices are as well - great that we kept Huntly power station going -we should be cranking it up to the max
Unemployment rate steady in Aussie. But 5.4k jobs lost month on month.
But the kicker is that 40.9k full time jobs lost, while 35.5k part time jobs were created. Unemployment only prevented by a falling participation rate.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/australian-unemploym…
The Australian survey is absolutely ridiculous in terms of full time vs part time. It’s something like “did you work over or under 35 hours a week ?” And it’s sent to about 1500 people. Not sure if the exacts but if you look at stats Aussie you will see it.
US total light vehicle sales are at the same level as 30 years ago, despite the US population increasing 30% over the same time period.
Public transport systems have not improved to the extent that you don't need a car. Suggests a sharp decline in real median US living standards over the past 30 years.
I thought a lot more people lived in cities so less cars. I loved not having a car when I lived in Japan.
Yeah same not having a car is actually more freedom!
Also cars last longer and are less cool these days. I couldn’t care less that my car is old.
Yes. I owned a car in Japan, despite living in the city. But I did not need it for day-to-day existence and my life would not have been disrupted measurably without it.
Japan is far more advanced than the U.S. in public transport infrastructure. The U.S. will never achieve what Japan has.
Well that's a completely un-nuanced view.
Did cars get more expensive?
Did they get more reliable and last longer?
Did public transport get incrementally better?
They also got less cool. When I was a kid we all wanted a car, these days it’s not that exciting. It’s just a metal box that gets you from a to b these days.
Watched Seinfeld last night, big screen TV was super exciting in that episode, now everyone’s got one.
Modern cars aren't as intuitive. They are made to get a to b in the most vanilla fashion and without significance. 70's-90's Japanese manual cars were fantastic. You feel in control and the car is an extension of you, vs the modern day, mainly automatic, slushbox of a car that trundles along without anything really to feel like a worthwhile experience.
Yeah but everything was more interesting in the old days. Whether that be a car, stereo, trampoline, spa pool, comic, or porno mag.
The price of a new car has barely increased over 30 years when factoring for inflation.
Considering population growth, you would expect car sales to have increased.
Therefore, to suggest living standards in the U.S. have declined in the past 30 years is a fair conclusion.
https://www.in2013dollars.com/New-and-used-motor-vehicles/price-inflati…
Lots of things have not increased in price but sell less. In the old days you’d buy a TV every few years because yours was out of date, now my 10 year old TV still looks almost like new. My 10 year old LED light bulb has been replaced much less than the old incandescent.
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