A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; rents flat or falling, nore job ads, trade deficit halves, more tractors sold, credit card activity rises, FMA gets 'guidance', swaps soft again, NZD drops, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

RENTS FLAT OR FALLING
Falling residential rents starting to show up in the latest tenancy bond data. Residential rents are flat or falling in most parts of the country giving landlords little to cheer about.

TURNING A CORNER?
Job market shows clear signs of turning for the better. The latest Seek report says hiring activity has noticeably picked up; 'We have not seen such broad-based growth in a very long time'

TRADE DEFICIT HALVES
In August, merchandise exports rose by +23% from August year ago to $5.9 bln while imports fell by -0.4% to $7.1 bln resulting in a monthly merchandise trade deficit of -$1.19 bln. In August 2024 that deficit was -$2.32 bln

RECOVERING?
For the first time in 2026, more than 200 tractors were sold in a month with 212 sold in August. The average for an August in the past ten years was 256.

SIGN OF LIFE?
Like the job ads data, perhaps there is evidence in the credit card billing data that consumers are feeling a bit more flush. Billing rose in August from July at the best annualised rate in more than a year, up +4.8% on a s.a. basis and the most since April 2023. And this higher activity comes as consumers pay down their credit card balances which were lower than year-ago equivalent levels. The proportion interest-bearing is the lowest now since December 2023.

WHOLESALE CLAIMS
The FMA sought court clarification on how wholesale investors are certified. They got their answer today. Basically the court came down on the side of self-certification and letting promotors off the hook over vetting these claims. The FMA said after the ruling: “This case confirms that there is a responsibility on lawyers, accountants and financial advisers to correctly confirm eligible investor certifications made by investors, and that wholesale offerors are able to rely on those certifications and confirmations. That may include the need for lawyers, accountants and financial advisers to seek further information to determine whether the certification provided by the investor is correct. We will continue to work with MBIE on the appropriate policy settings for the wholesale investment regime, given the changing distribution methods and nature of wholesale offers. We will also continue to take action against conduct that misleads people into these wholesale investments, when they need the protections afforded by retail investments. Tackling retail investments dressed up as wholesale investments is an area of concern we have held for some time and remains strongly on our radar.”

NZX50 RECOVERS SHARPLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +1.0% its Friday session. It is also now up +0.2% over the past five working days. And it is up +1.4% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +4.6%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up a strong +1.9% today so far. Kathmandu, Channel, EBOS, and Infratil topped the gainers but Air NZ, Investore, Meridian, and Briscoes lead the decliners

JAPAN'S INFLATION EASES
Japan's inflation eased to 2.7% in August from 3.1% in July, the level since October 2024. There was a notable slowing in the rise in rice prices, enabling food price inflation to ease to 'only' 7.2% in August from a year ago. Overall prices weer up +0.8% in the month with food prices up just +0.3% for the month.

EYES ON THE BOJ
Japan's central bank is about to announce the results of its policy rate and is expected to leave it unchanged at today's meeting, at 0.5%. Update: No change. Here is their decision.

SWAP RATES DROP AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be even lower again today across all durations, but by a smaller drop than yesterday. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.94% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp from yesterday at 4.23%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.85%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.24%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was down -4 bps, also at 4.23% at the end of Thursday trade. The UST 10yr yield is up another +4 bps from yesterday at this time, now at 4.11%.

EQUITIES GENERALLY HIGHER
The local equity market is up a sharpish +1.1% in Friday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.8%. Hong Kong however is unchanged with Shanghai down -0.4%. Singapore is down -0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday session up +0.5% on the S&P500 in the aftermath of the Fed decision, rising at the open, but making no more gains the entire session.

OIL SOFT AGAIN
The oil price in the US is down another -50 USc from yesterday at this time, now at just under US$63.50/bbl but the international Brent price is just under US$67.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been a few larger trades reported today, but the prices are unchanged at $57.50. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SLIPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down another -US$18 from yesterday, now at US$3646/oz.

NZD SLIDES AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down another -50 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.8 USc on the continuing fallout of the weak GDP result. Against the Aussie we are are down -20 bps at 89 AUc. Against the euro we are down another -25 bps at 49.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now down -30 bps to just under 66.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$117,191 and up just +0.2% from yesterday. Volatility has been again low just under +/- 0.5%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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