Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today other than Heretaunga Building Society cutting its 2 year fixed rate by -10 bps. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
NOT POSITIVE
ASB survey shows investor confidence at its lowest level for nearly five years. The June-quarter survey shows optimism at its lowest ebb since the Covid pandemic - and before that down to GFC levels.
NEW LIVE TRACKER OF PROSPERITY
The same Massey team that runs its GDPLive tool (real-time tracking of high-frequency activity data) has expanded to include more social data, allowing it to track 'prosperity' in real time, that at least is the promise. It scores data on the basis that zero reflects the lowest level of prosperity observed since 2007, while a score close to 100 reflects the highest level observed over the same period. Currently we are at 76.9. They define 'prosperity' as where individuals and communities can flourish, "accessing opportunities for success and fulfillment across multiple dimensions of life". They measure it by combining eight key dimensions: Education, Health, Income, Housing, Employment, Safety, Social Wellbeing, and Work-Life Balance.
RETIRING
Retirement Commissioner Jane Wrightson has said she will conclude her second term in early 2026 and not seek reappointment.
IMPROVING AFFORDABILITY
Our monthly median multiple tracking has been updated for August for all significant urban areas. Nationally this multiple is down to 6.2x, the lowest since 2019. This metric peaked at 9.3x in November 2021.(The median multiple metric relates median house prices to gross household incomes. As such it ignores income taxes, and interest rates. So it is just a crude measure, one not very relevant for aspiring home buyers. We will be releasing our home loan affordability updates soon who do account for both income tax levels and interest rates. They also focus on FHBs and first step buyers.)
NZX50 HAVING A DOWN DAY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.5% its Monday session so far. It is also now down -0.4% over the past five working days. But it is up +0.7% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +6.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.7% today so far. Vital Healthcare, Investore, Air NZ and Mercury rise but EBOS, Infratil, Summerset and Freightways fall.
ALWAYS LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE OF LIFE
Business Canterbury is talking up its August survey of local business saying "its not all doom and gloom". But the main indicators turning up are all expectations that things will be better in the future, rather than seeing improvements now. In fact the same survey shows "32% think the Government is managing the economy better than 12 months ago". Does that mean that Canterbury businesses think the government needs to change? Of just that they can ignore a government they think is not improving?
CHINA HOLDS
The People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates unchanged at record lows for the fourth straight month today, as expected. The 1-year loan prime rate remained at 3.0%, while the 5-year benchmark stayed at 3.5%.
HONG KONG GETS READY TO SHUT DOWN
Hong Kong authorities are bracing for “serious threats” posed by the looming Super Typhoon Ragasa, which is expected to bring hurricane-force winds with speeds of up to 220 km/h over the next few days, potentially breaking a record set during Saola in 2023. Their airport is likely to close, along with much else including their stock market.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today in the short durations, but bfirmish longer. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -10 bps at 2.84% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps from this morning at 4.29%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.87%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.26%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was down -3 bps, at 4.20% at the end of Friday trade. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged from this morning, still at 4.11%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now down -0.6% in Monday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +1.5%. Hong Kong however is down -0.9% with Shanghai unchanged. Singapore is up +0.1% at its open. Wall Street futures trading suggests the S&P500 will open tomorrow up +0.8%.
OIL SOFT
The oil price in the US is unmoved from this morning at just over US$62.50/bbl but the international Brent price is up +50 USc at US$67/bbl.
CARBON PRICE DIPS
There have been a few trades reported today, and the prices are softish at $56.75. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up sharply to a new record high, now at US$3691/oz, up +US$7 from this morning although a few hours ago it breached US3700/oz. Silver is now up at US$43.40, also a strong rise.
NZD HOLDS LOW
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this morning, now at 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are are still at 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we holding at 49.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 65.9.
BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$114,345 and down -1.0% from this morning's open. Volatility has been again low just under +/- 0.7%.
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17 Comments
In early Asian trade, gold is up sharply to a new record high, now at US$3691/oz,
2025 is shaping up to be the best year ever for GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF). YTD return is around 113%. GDX has never achieved annual returns anywhere close - 2016 saw gains closer to 50%.
If you had bought GDX in 2016, you'd have returns of 500%.
We need to ask our financial experts / advisors questions about why they didn't recommend. I talked to some last year about gold mining exposure and it was like talking to a doe caught out by a car's headlights.
Former NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has lost her battle to have findings of serious corrupt conduct against her overturned in the state’s highest civil court.
Regardless of being stained with being a corrupt public official, Gladys golden parachuted in to a senior executive job at telco Optus. She has never apologized to the public.
Optus is owned by the Singtel Group whose Anti-Bribery / Corruption policy says corruption “in any form” will not be tolerated. Aussies should expect Optus to get rid of Berejiklian. No moves yet. If they don't move, Optus should lost all govt contracts.
Three people died last week during a Triple Zero as Optus revealed it failed to act for hours despite receiving five calls reporting the service was down.
https://theklaxon.com.au/optus-boss-remains-seriously-corrupt/
Oooops...the election date approaches.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/573762/watch-christopher-luxon-and…
Hail Mary.
more differed maintenance but better then austerity or nothing, maybe the focus groups are working.
I waited 7 hours after been taken to n shore hospital by ambulance, discharge self after being told i had no chance to see a dr until 8am if lucky prob see a nurse. 3 days later gp got scan results and they re admitted me and operation within 12 hours.... Surgeon said even a nurse should have been able to do a 30 second accesment and admitted me for emergency op. so i would not have seen a dr in 12 hours? friend had to carry me to car at 2am , really National you lost my party vote there.
Health system is falling apart, forget a few refurbs GET MORE DRs
they simply need to lift taxes or tell us they cutting services so we can insure
What do National not get here, if they move left a bit they win for next 5 terms
do not die in ditch over ideology, move left suffocate Labour and give 60% of NZers what they want
Steal Lab voters here Nat voters will not object and vote left!!!!!!!
Lab cannot move right due to ideology so out flank them by moving left.
That's a shocking story. So sad that happened to you. How thankful the op didn't come too late. Yikes.
I have no idea why we aren't taking full advantage of nurse practitioners as a key/integrated part of our overall health system.
https://theconversation.com/nurse-practitioners-can-ease-nzs-healthcare…
I am ok, once you get past A and E things move forward, they simply do not have enough staff. I needed a scan to confirm but any dr could have known after i could not lift my leg it was likely ruptured tendons on quad.
12 hrs to see a Dr after arrieving by ambulance is a bit crazy.
I got quick ultrasound and within 24 hours op, but the A E system failed me. and yes a nurse practioner would have helped i was told i was ,most likely to see one around 9am, as it was 2am i went home.
saw gp about 10am , head was shaking.... they could tell the issue.
"they simply need to lift taxes or tell us they cutting services so we can insure"
Insurance dosnt do acute
if during the day see a GP and bypass A & E that way, you thren enter via ADU .... see a Dr in an hour or 2 and admitted that day.
even a referral from white cross bypasses a and e DO NOT GOTO A & E unless you are dying
somehow get to a dr and get a specialist referral to ADU
It’s six weeks to get a GP appointment at our local clinic. And no one else is taking new patients. Luckily I found a place that did take new patients for a few weeks.
i work on the fact that they will see you if you cannot walk, just turn up a GP will see an emergency or broken limb etc, prob not a flu
They probably know there’s no chance of maintaining a good health system when the number of users is about to rapidly increase at the same time the number of workers decreases.
They let them in Labour and Nat so they need to fund emergency care.....
They are trying to bring in doctors from overseas but those doctors have got much better options these days.
money will solve this problem
They can’t lift taxes now, they only just cut them. They pinned their hopes on bracket creep, but you need wage rises for that.
I’ve had a similar experience. Do not get acutely sick, it’s Russian roulette. I’m still gobsmacked that we have hundreds of newly qualified nurses not able to find a position in our hospitals? We are in dire need of more staff, that is predominantly what the strikes are about, lack of resources. It’s madness, Aussie swoop up all the new grads plus our most experienced
Think about it
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