
Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were rate changes announced today from Heartland Bank, Bank of China, and WBS. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There were savings account reductions from Sharesies, Squirrel, GoLend and Forsyth Barr. And term deposit reductions from China Construction Bank and First Credit Union. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
GIVING REALISTIC ADVICE TO MANY WHO RESIST
Barfoot & Thompson says landlords are under pressure in a sluggish residential rental market. Fewer people are viewing properties for rent and that is forcing some landlords to drop their asking rents. Such a downbeat report from Auckland's largest realtor is probably a signal to their landlord clients that they are not being realistic about rent expectations.
STRUGGLING FOR MOMENTUM
The BNZ/BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) held steady at 49.9 in September, and that is not expansion. It is a familiar story, with the manufacturing sector struggling for momentum. The steam went out of new order growth in September, unfortunately. Lower interest rates will no doubt help the sector, but how much will actually flow through? Heavily-indebted companies that would get the most direct advantage are likely to be largely zombies. The benefit from lower interest rates for more well-structured companies will be because lower rates induce more business from their customers. But that is still an untested senario.
STAGNANT
The RBNZ updated its June record of the total value of all housing stock as at June 2025 to $1.645 tln. That is up +$1.8 bln from March (+0.2%) and up +1.6% from a year earlier. This value is from data from Cotality and includes the rise in new builds.
NZX50 ON HOLD
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.6% in its Friday session so far. That puts it -0.2% lower over the past five working days. It is up +3.3% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +5.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down a sharp -2.2% today so far. Napier Port, Investore, Tower and SkyTV are the main gainers among the 42 who rose today. But Fletchers, Briscoes, Tourism Holdings and Mainfreight are the other big decliners.
ASSET SALES TO RAMP UP
The Government is mulling the sale of its stake in network infrastructure builder Chorus, with debt and equity stakes in the ultra-fast network builder to go on the block. No word yet on conditions or restrictions on foreign ownership. Chorus shares started the year at $8.81 and are now at $9.27, so a year-to-date gain of 5%.
DOUBLE DIGIT RETURNS I
We should also note that the Fonterra shareholder-owned FSF share price is now at $8.10, and started the year at $5.15, resulting in a +57% gain for the year. For the generally owned FCG share, that started the year at $4.20 and is now at $5.94, a rise of +41%.
DOUBLE DIGIT RETURNS II
Staying in the vein of farmer returns, beef and lamb prices are also rising very sharply, no doubt also enhanced in NZD by the weak Kiwi currency. Today, farmers are offered 817c/kg for bulls, 886c/kg for steers and 1080c/kg 180c/kg for lamb. These translate to year-to-date gains of +28%, +37% and +36%.
DIMMER IS AUSSIE TOO
Australian business is in a hesitant spot too. Data out today for August shows monthly turnover fell -2.2% (seasonally adjusted) and this fall was the largest since April 2023 with drops across nine industries this month. Manufacturing was down -5.8%, tech was down -3.7%, and mining was down -1.9%.
INFLATION & JOBS RISKS RISE
At testimony at at Australian Senate hearing today, the RBA Governor talked up Australia's economic prospects, but also noted that unemployments is likely to rise from here, and that higher household inflation is quite possible if they retain strong household income growth and weak productivity. Higher policy interest rates are likely if this persists.
SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will likely be little-changed today for short durations but marginally higher for longer ones. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -13 bps on Thursday at 2.56%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps from yesterday at 4.38%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.85%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.16%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Thursday's rate down -7 bps to 4.11%. The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps at 4.15%.
EQUITIES ALL LOWER
The local equity market is now down -0/7% in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 is softsh but little-changed in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.7%. Hong Kong is down another -0.9% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.2% from yesterday. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday session down -0.3% on the S&P500.
OIL LOWER
The oil price in the US is down -50 USc from yesterday at this time at just over US$61.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just under US$65.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been few trades today so the price has held at $55.50/NZU which is its lowest since July. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RETREATS BELOW US$4000
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$40 from yesterday, now at US$3979/oz. Silver is volatile, up a net $1 to US$49.50/oz, but it has been well over US$51/oz in between.
NZD FALLS BACK
The Kiwi dollar has fallen back -50 bps today and is now at 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 87.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -30 bps at just under 65.2.
DATA ADVISORY
This weekend we will be changing the way we report our TWI-5 index. The reason is here.
BITCOIN HOLDS SOFT
The bitcoin price is now at US$121,664 and down -0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has again been modest, just on +/- 1.5%.
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24 Comments
Well at least summer is here to cheer us all UP!!!
30 degrees in Hastings today
That yellow bullseye on the moisture map has been sitting there for 12+ months.
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.6% in its Friday session so far.
Noticed a bit of near-term joy with NZ Dividend ETF. Up 19.1% and 20.6% YTD and P1Y respectively. Not too shabby and at least par with inflation.
For comparative purposes, that's 3% pts higher than MSCI WORLD over same time periods. If you're unaware, The MSCI WORLD Index is a globally recognized stock market index that tracks the performance of large and mid-cap companies from 23 developed countries, providing a broad benchmark for global equities in developed markets.
The mighty Jeff Snider focuses on the Kiwi peso and the actions of our central bank boffins [see YT link below].
Jeff reckons "the RBNZ is the latest to rejoin race to the bottom w/panicky rate cutting. After pausing just 3 mos ago, Economists thinking RBNZ was done with just one more 25, they've already blown way past that. Why? "Global uncertainty" which is just code for the-economy-isn't-turning-out-the-way-we-forecast. What we see unfolding in NZ is exactly what the rest of the world should expect."
"The reason why so many central banks are going back into pringles is that rate cuts don’t work. We see the same thing over and over; central banks respond to growing weakness with a few rate cuts, then a few more. After a bunch of them, their models all tell them the economy is in a good place. Except it isn’t. Rate cuts don’t stimulate economies. Maybe a few interest rate sensitive sectors like housing, nowhere near enough to make a difference to a determined downturn."
"Once they’re forced to realize this, right back into pringles they go. New Zealand is the latest to suffer the potato flake curve. Having paused earlier in the year, just a few months ago, they went full fifty early today and said they’re not done. They’re never done. The Kiwi economy offers another critical lesson, too: it is suffering from payback which is showing up all over the world in more obvious ways."
"The reason why so many central banks are going back into pringles"
Pringles ??? Educate me please.
Clicking the link..
rate cuts really are like pringles – once central bankers start they’re finding everywhere they can’t stop.
pringles are like cock roaches , never one
like that saying at the bottom of the page
A single cockroach will completely wreck the appeal of a bowl of cherries, but a cherry will do nothing at all for a bowl of cockroaches.
The polly anna cheerleaders don't realise how futile a single sparrow is...
at least its summer, we can be miserable and warm, beach time, where are my jandals
I have a nice US IPA on tap, go OTAGO
Thanks 3Cents, I couldn't be bothered clicking the link.
The rate increase definitely destroyed the economy. So wouldn't the reversal get it moving again.
The cut to 0.25% got it moving, way too much.
The rate increase destroying the economy is an assumption not a fact. Personally I think the lack of productivity destroyed the economy.
So lowering the interest rate will not reverse the destruction.
Just happened to coincide with the rate increases (again).
Possible I guess...
Guess?
You haven't read those links yet, eh?
Golf, cuff or just missing?
Bogey
The rate increase definitely destroyed the economy. So wouldn't the reversal get it moving again.
The cut to 0.25% got it moving, way too much.
Its easier to put out a fire with water then start wet wood?
We are not at 0.25%
Next stop if we get that bad is not 0.25% its probably -1.0%
Animal spirits are indeed hard to define, at first chance there are probably 50% of property investers who would bail at 2021 prices..... the game has changed, they are 4 years older....
President George W. Bush delivers his famous "fool me once" remark. Full soundbite is as follows: "Because we're trying to figure out how best to make the world a peaceful place. There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee, that says "Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me...you can't get fooled again. We've got to understand the nature of the regime we're dealing with."
If energy fuels growth (it does) then financial jiggery pokery (negative rates) will not overcome the reality.
The past examples of negative rates have been nothing more than localised can kicking exercises.
its the last step before a fiats collapse and return to new currency backed by gold.. shame most savings are valued in usd
Dreadful stuff from RBA Governor Michele Bullock publicly stated that the Australian economy is now in “a pretty good spot,” with inflation back inside the Reserve Bank’s target range, wages rising, and unemployment remaining low.
She reckons that Labor’s policies have contributed to this turnaround, citing ongoing real income growth, a pick-up in household consumption, and a shift towards private sector-driven growth. The central bank has kept interest rates steady at 3.6%, following three earlier cuts this year, and has signaled that the nation is close to the bottom of the rate cycle, with further reductions dependent on inflation data in the coming months.
My main objections are that inflation data is at odds with consumer confidence and that while only employment growth in the public sector is strong, we cannot say the same about the pvte sector.
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/australias-economy-prett…
At first stages of a property crash he will be cutting like a cancer surgeon
Oz Juice Media finally covers NZ...
note NSFW or children
https://youtu.be/h-yjkAXxnMA?si=rObfPFAf99ufUdmN
Putting the N back in cuts. I cried.
Even National supporters will like this
its so true we vote governments out
The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to María Corina Machada for “promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela."
Great news that Trump did not get the Prize despite his expectations and self-promotion - an embarrassing great slap in the face for him. Nominations closed in January but Trump is never one to follow procedures and has continually promoted himself with support from some national leaders who have endeavoured to ingratiate themselves to him.
More importantly, Maria Corina got the Prize for the fighting against the autocratic Venezuela government guilty of the same behaviours currently being displayed by Trump so 2026 doesn't bode well for him as well.
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