Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Update: ANZ has cut most of its fixed rates, effective Friday, October 17, 2025. Earlier, Kookmin Bank, HBS (Heretaunga Building Society) and Liberty Financial all reduced mortgage rates as did Xceda. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
All Kiwi Bond interest rates were cut by -50 bps today, making these risk-free savings bonds underwater for 'real' returns. Xceda and HBS cut rates too. And Heartland cut all its savings account rates today, including for their two notice saver products. Westpac cut its 8-month TD rate by -15 bps to 3.50%. Update: ANZ cut all its TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
INFLATION SAGGING FINALLY?
There was a surprise large monthly drop in food prices in September and that may lead to lower a September CPI figure than expected. Statistics NZ's Selected Price Indexes show that food prices dropped -0.4% in September, lowering the annual increase to +4.1% - down from +5.0% the previous month. And its not just food. The same data release shows rents had their lowest annual increase since 2011. The Q3-2025 CPI will be released on Monday.
RATE CUT CYCLE NEARS ITS END
Inflation expectations remain high, however, and those expectations are a barrier to more RBNZ rate cuts. Financial markets are now starting to price OCR increases later in 2026. These expectations worry the RBNZ. High inflation and/or rising expectations that come with any pickup in economic activity will heighten those worries.
NO MORE COST PRESSURE
Meanwhile, residential building costs are increasing at just a +2% rate annually, half the long-term average. The rise in Q3-2025 from the June quarter was at an even slower pace.
SOCIAL BENEFIT NEEDS REMAIN VERY HIGH
According to data released today by MSD, there are now more than 410,000 people on the main adult benefits, a new record high and up +4.8% from this time last year. Those on Jobseeker benefits are up +6.4% to 217,800 and also a record high. But those on solo parent benefits are up +3.3% but well below the 2011 record high. Those on supported living payments were another record at just under 107,000.
NZX50 FIRMS SLIGHTLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.2% in its Thursday session so far. That puts it -1.9% lower over the past five working days. It is up +1.9% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +3.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.2 today so far. There were gains by Infratil, Stride Property, Kathmandu, and Argosy while Channel Infrastructure, Port of Tauranga, Vista Group, and EBOS are the main decliners.
TRYING TO BE MORE PRICE-COMPETITIVE
Regular readers will know that we track standard online car insurance quotes for five major insurance brands (for the most popular new car and used import, in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch). That indicates that the two big AIG brands (State and AMI) have trimmed their premiums slightly in the past week, which gives them a larger cost advantage over the other three in our sample.
A NEW BIG WINNERS, HAPPY FOR LOWER YIELDS
There were 112 bids today in the three NZGB bond tenders for $450 mln. Those bids totaled almost $1.9 bln. Only 5 bidders won anything in the May 2032 tranche, 13 bidders won something in the May 2035 tranche, and only one bidder took it all in the May 2054 offering. In all cases the winning investors were prepared to push down yields from the prior equivalent events.
A $25 MLN TOP-UP
Better seasonal trading conditions by Alliance Meats has boosted the price Dawn Meats will pay if the acquisition is approved at the Monday AGM, making it a $270 mln transaction*. Interestingly in the debate about the wisdom of this proposed change of ownership, there seems little discussion about the embedded industry overcapacity and how that will be resolved. No-one seems to have a plan other than 'the other guy' needs to do it. No matter what happens on Monday, neither option tackles this much more fundamental problem. (*Its a NZD transaction and the fall in the NZD means Dawn Meats will likely be paying the same in EUR.)
COOLING OFF
In Australia, their jobless rate ticked higher to 4.5% and their jobs growth, especially full-time jobs growth, came in lower than expected in September.
JAPANESE MACHINERY ORDERS DISAPPOINT
In Japan, core machinery orders, excluding the large volatile sectors, fell -0.9% in August from July to ¥8.9 tln but it was an improvement from the sharp -4.6% drop in July. Analysts had expected a small gain.
SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates are will likely be lower today across the board, reacting to the early inflation signals. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged on Wednesday at 2.55%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps from yesterday at 4.17%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.76%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps at 4.02%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Wednesday's rate down -5 bps to 4.04%. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 4.03%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now unchanged in Thursday trade so far. But the ASX200 is up +1.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down up +0.8%. Hong Kong is up +0.3% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.1% from yesterday. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session with a +0.4% gain for the day.
OIL HOLDS LOW
The oil price in the US is little-changed at just over US$58.50/bbl and the international Brent price is still just under US$62.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have only been a small handful of tiny trades today and the price has held at $56/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES TO NEW HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$48 from yesterday at this time, now at US$4228/oz and a new high.
BETTER THAN GOLD
But lets put that gold price rise into perspective. From the start of 2025, gold is up +60% in USD terms, up +52% in NZD terms. But the Fonterra FSF share price is up +63% in the same timeframe.
NZD TURNS UP
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday, now at 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +50 bps at 88.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +30 bps at just under 62.1.
BITCOIN DIPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$111,363 and down another -0.6% from this time this time yesterday. Volatility has again been modest, just on +/- 1.4%.
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31 Comments
BETTER THAN GOLD
But lets put that gold price rise into perspective. From the start of 2025, gold is up +60% in USD terms, up +52% in NZD terms. But the Fonterra FSF share price is up +63% in the same timeframe.
Still better, Silver is up over 70% and some mining ETF's over 100%
Silver only up 53-60% in Kiwi pesos.
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) up approx 137% YTD. GDX up by same percentage.
For a PM enthusiast, you have to up your game Dr Y.
In my books +137% qualifies as "up over 100%".
In my records I see Newmont at +154% for the year, closely followed by plucky NZ upstarts Harmoney making money offering loans mostly to Australians, +141% for the year. Good to see someone redressing the flow of interest across the Tasman (if there's any other Kiwi shareholders left since they delisted from the NZX and switched to the ASX - a common story)
In my records I see Newmont at +154% for the year, closely followed by plucky NZ upstarts Harmoney making money offering loans mostly to Australians, +141% for the year
On the ASX, Evolution +136%. I sold OceanaGold a few years back when they delisted from the ASX and listed on the TSE (Toronto). +196% YTD. Nobody in Aussie / Aotearoa was interested in OceanaGold. I would have sold them anyway. On ethical grounds.
Thought Harmoney was dead.
Yeah I had the same journey with Oceana, was very annoyed when they buggered off given so much of the business is based here.
Harmoney stopped doing the peer-to-peer thing a few years ago, now more of a classic finance company but on a bit of a roll.
Yeah I had the same journey with Oceana, was very annoyed when they buggered off given so much of the business is based here.
The way the delisting was carried out was appalling IMO. I don't want anything to do with them anymore. OceanaGold’s operations in the Philippines, particularly at the Didipio gold-copper mine in Nueva Vizcaya, have long faced criticism from local communities, human rights groups, and environmental organizations. Issues span alleged environmental degradation, human rights violations, and social conflict over land and water resources.
Better seasonal trading conditions by Alliance Meats has boosted the price Dawn Meats will pay if the acquisition is approved at the Monday AGM, making it a $270 mln transaction*.
Someone needs to come in and bat for the Aotearoa meat industry. They do their best with limited govt support (or what supports them is desk bound with the occasional overseas trip for gin slinging).
Compare that to Aussie with Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), partially government-funded, operating under a public–industry partnership model that combines producer levies with government matching grants. MLA promotes Australian beef, lamb, and goatmeat internationally under the “Aussie Beef & Lamb” brand with offices in key global export markets to grow demand, secure market access, and highlight Australia’s reputation for high-quality, safe, and sustainably produced meat. These international marketing programs support producers by increasing export opportunities.
Governments have stayed well clear of the industry ever since Muldoon’s senseless intervention in the sheep meat industry with SMP subsidies and enforcing a single seller desk via the Meat Producers Board, all of which cost the NZ tax payer close to $2 billion a tidy sum back then when the nation was already hard pressed financially. At present the NZ beef industry is doing quite well for itself, so too venison but the shrinking of the sheep meat sector is largely market driven and adverse economies of scale, which are exacerbated by the seasonal nature of it all. In reality both Alliance and Silver Fern Farms have resorted to a series of capital raising ventures which then disappears mostly into trading losses and catch up maintenance requiring them to then have another go. This arrival of Dawn as a white knight, is just the latest example of that and it is actually difficult to see how exactly Dawn can change the cycle, transform the operation into profitability.
Aussie is light years ahead in terms of business acumen in the meat industry.
Well Assie still runs a sheep flock around 75mill which was about where NZ peaked in the mid 1980s. Way back when the UK entered the EEC, Australia did not receive a sizeable quota like NZ did and resultantly they diversified, other markets. Still at one stage they had around a 160mill flock so that demonstrates too the lack of market sustainability and particularly in their case that of wool.
In land volume to produce it at scale sure
I try and keep out of the AUS v NZ arguments JC, but I think you are wrong to suggest AUS marketing is better. NZ has just as much profile in the world meat job but lack scale. Also AUS has more immediate recognition due to size.
I'm sure we've seen this movie before
"Donald Trump has confirmed he has authorised the CIA to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela.
He says he is also weighing up carrying out land operations on the country."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-16/trump-confirms-cia-conducting-co…
Aye.
Dominant hegemony (which in physics terms, means the biggest energy-user) needs to subjugate ever-more nations to stay afloat. The US has been in increasing trouble since pre Reagan - ever-more-effort in wars/bases/control, just to obtain.
And it's a guaranteed temporary arrangement. The joke is that China (et al) cannot get as consumptive; there isn't enough planet left.
This is nothing new KKNZ. I am sure the CIA a have homes and vehicles waiting from the last time. Probably mistresses and children as well.
The control China has over the refining of REE (rare earth elements) is not fully understood by the west. China has us all by the "Cojones", and there is not much other countries can do about it.
Well it’s taken me all of a year to dust off the wallet and donate but it’s high time. Especially as now Stuff is paywalling at least 50% of their articles
Here’s a good article on REEs (rare earth elements) I invested heavily in them back in June 😎
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/video/us-china-tensions-fuel-rare-16300095…
Welcome back Rampart. Where is the link to the article you refer to? I'm keen to read it
Oops, I’ve edited above to include it. Pretty basic stuff but a good starting point for someone wanting to know about REE and the absolute trump card China holds in terms of supply as well as processing.
"The absolute Trump card China holds" LOL
Personally I would suggest that Stuff should pay you to read the mindless puerile tripe they publish.
It’s getting slim pickings for the freeloaders.
just go AFR and cancel every 3 months then rejoin
Or be a decent person and pay for what you consume.
Why would you do that IT when this site is so cheap.
edit or were you meaning the stuff site?
What’s in court now is a right example. The self acclaimed “baby faced assassin” got a reaction from Talleys alright. It is the poorest type of journalism ever, when any author cannot overcome their own subjectivity and compulsion just to seek having a headline. In other words fame outweighs the substance. Unfortunately not isolated to that example of the media either.
Thanks for the video which I have now watched. It just reinforces my belief that the West doesn't fully grasp the importance of China controlling 90% of the refining of REE's. Refining to extract the elements required for high-tech chips, for AI, mobiles, batteries, the auto industry, solar panels, high efficiency motors and much more is a very costly and dirty process. "Dirty" in the sense that refining emits radioactive material. This type of heavy pollution is generally not something western countries find acceptable in their own backyard (but were happy to have refined in China and then buy it back… ) Hence creating new REE mining and refining plants outside of China is both economically and environmentally not viable.
So China does indeed hold the trump card !
It’s especially important when it comes to defence. REEs make alloys stronger and more tolerant to heat. Without REEs there are no destroyers, no submarines, no fighter jets. This was a massive oversight by the United States not to extensively mine and process their own REEs. MP Materials is the largest operator outside of China, they also process but nowhere near Chinas levels. There’s a mad scramble now to make up time, great investment opportunities out there.
A stark illustration of that feature in WW2 - Germany always struggling to reliably source sufficient chrome, nickel and tungsten which, while not as exotic sounding as subsequent elements now in demand, were nevertheless essential at that time.
Here’s a better run through on REE for anyone interested
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