Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Nelson Building Society raised it 18 and 24 month rates to 3.5% today, and this overall update might be helpful. Meanwhile, ASB has cut its SavingsPlus potential rate by -15 bps to 1.08%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
COMING BACK
There was a big jump in residential building consents issued in September, and the building industry could be headed for an upturn. The uptick is largest in Auckland, but also very noticeable in Otago (Queenstown-Wanaka). Much of the momentum is coming from consents for both townhouses and apartments.
ONE BRIGHT SPOT IN SIDEWAYS DATA
For non-residential consents, it's a story of 'tracking sideways' with the underlying trend remaining soft. But September did bring a large increase in office space being consented in Auckland, one of the few bright spots.
NZX50 HANGS IN THERE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index has recovered from a drop this morning in the ongoing Monday session, now +0.1% positive. That puts it +1.3% higher over the past five working days. It is up +3.8% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +7.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.8% so far today. Kathmandu, Mainfreight, Vulcan Steel and Kiwi Property Group advance, while F&P Healthcare, Port of Tauranga, Freightways and Skellerup are declining.
HOLDING ITS PROFITABILITY
Westpac reported its annual results today to September 2025 for both its Group, and for New Zealand. Westpac New Zealand's annual profit fell slightly to $1.2 bln as expenses rose. But its net interest margin increased +15 basis points.
SHORTER & SHORTER
Customer deposits at banks are getting even more short-term. There is $448.3 bln in 'non-market funding' in the banking system, and 72.9% of that is on 3 months or less. That is the most since April 2023, which was on the downside of the pandemic twist. Apart from that, it is the highest since March 2016.
RECOVERY
Australia also released September residential building consent data today and it jumped +12% from August, up +15% from September a year ago. This activity has been particularly volatile over the past few months, so the September surge is actually more just a recovery rather than a serious push higher. Much of their recent gains are for townhouses and apartments too. The most impressive gains are in Victoria where a real resurgence seems to be underway (despite their ugly union-mafia (CFMEU) control of their building trades).
INFLATION UP IN AUSTRALIA
In Australia, there was more evidence of higher & rising inflation, although this data isn't really sounding warning bells. The Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded an increase in monthly inflation for October, primarily influenced by higher recreation and housing related prices. The monthly cost of living also rose. Annual headline inflation as recorded by the Inflation Gauge is slightly above the top-end of the RBA's 2-3% target band.
JOB ADS DOWN IN AUSTRALIA, AGAIN
Job ads fell -2.2% in October from September in the ANZ-Indeed tracking, following a revised -3.5% drop in the previous month. This marked the fourth straight monthly decline, reinforcing signs of a loosening labour market despite elevated inflation.
NO REAL GROWTH
So it will be no surprise to know that household spending is rising only at about the rate of [household] inflation.
AUSSIE FACTORIES TURN QUIETER
But the S&P Global factory PMI for Australia is sounding a bit more of a strident warning for October. It recorded its first fall in manufacturing output in four months driven by the fastest retreat in new orders since December 2024. Employment headcounts declined for the first time since February.
THE NEIGHBOURHOOD IS MIXED
And the same S&P Global factory PMIs for Taiwan, Korea and Malaysia all contracted, even if only slightly. But this measure for Indonesia turned more positive. In Vietnam the upturn was sharp, hitting a 15 month high.
STILL EXPANDING, ON DOMESTIC DEMAND
In China, their factory sector is still expanding, although at a slower pace, according to the S&P Global (RatingDog) private factory PMI. New orders from domestic customers rose, but new export orders fell at their fastest pace since May. The similar official survey had this sector contracting.
SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates stayed up on Friday and may have gained a bit more today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp on Friday to 2.52%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.34%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.75%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 4.13%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Friday's end of month rate is down -3 bps to 4.06%. The UST 10yr yield is holding up at 4.10%, consolidating the general shift higher.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now unchanged in Monday trade so far. However, the ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo isn't trading, closed for Culture Day. Hong Kong is up +0.4% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.2% to start their Monday trade. Singapore is up +0.4% at its open. Wall Street is still on its weekend but the futures market suggests it will open tomorrow with a strong +0.8% gain, likely aided by the Berkshire Hathaway result.
OIL FIRMISH
The oil price in the US is firmish, now at just over US$61/bbl and the international Brent price is now just on US$65/bbl both marginally firmer than this morning's level.
CARBON PRICE STAYS DOWN
There have been a few trades today with prices holding at $53/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SOFT
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$5 from this morning's open, now at US$3996/oz.
NZD HOLDS, BUT UNDER MINOR PRESSURE
The Kiwi dollar is holding if slightly softer from this morning at just under 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 49.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is little-changed at 61.8.
BITCOIN SOFTER
The bitcoin price is now at US$109,622 and down -0.4% from this morning. Volatility has been low at just over +/- 0.6%.
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25 Comments
Are Barfoot's late with AKL sales data?
But this measure for Indonesia turned more positive. In Vietnam the upturn was sharp, hitting a 15 month high.
Trump's meeting with Vietnam PM Chinh in KL was extraordinary. Vietnam has gone from one of the the most punished under tariffs to a situation where tariffs are line after line of exemptions meaning that the 20% across the board has even been suffocated to some extent. The Vietnamese have played it smart and played Trump. They've granted tariff-free access to their mkts for U.S. goods. Because you can export as much as you like to Vietnam, it doesn't mean people want or will buy your products or services.
Vietnam speaks the language Trump wants to hear.
"Ground was broken on May 21 for a $1.5 billion luxury golf resort in northern Vietnam owned by the family business of US President Donald Trump"
"Reports indicate that the Vietnamese government expedited approvals and potentially violated domestic regulations to favor the Trump Organization."
https://www.dw.com/en/is-vietnam-courting-trump-family-with-luxury-golf…
You scratch his back, and the US government will scratch yours.
The golf course was planned way before the tariffs were announced.
Planned, yes. How about the timeline of the trade war and the approval?
"According to documents published by the Times on the Trump Organization's Hanoi development, the project skipped typical environmental reviews and cut short a local public comment period — one that had been dotted by fired-up local residents who’ve been informed that their land will be sold for less than half the value of what the parcels would have been worth prior to the alleged land grab."
"Wednesday’s groundbreaking for the project took place just three months after the initial documents were filed, a process which experts told the Times usually takes at least two years. Some steps were reportedly skipped entirely, while others were still underway."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/vietnam-t…
Original NY Times article is behind a paywall for me.
One of largest shopping malls in the U.S. - Palisades Center Mall in West Nyack, NY - is in severe financial distress and undergoing foreclosure proceedings. The original owner, Pyramid Management Group, has lost control of the property following missed payments on a $418.5 million mortgage and the mall has been placed under temporary receivership.
Was discussing with some pointy head mates who reckon while properties may gone into foreclosure, land values never actually fall. This might be true for places like Manhattan, but I don't reckon that holds across the board, like many people actually believe.
https://rcbizjournal.com/2025/10/26/palisades-center-investors-mauled-b…
"This might be true for places like Manhattan"
Come back to me when Momdani gets elected.
Oklo Inc. is an advanced nuclear technology company specializing in the design and deployment of next-gen compact fast fission reactors intended to supply clean, reliable power for applications such as data centers, industrial sites, and remote communities.
Oklo is currently valued about USD19.6 billion but it doesn't actually do anything yet. Bloomie has done quite an amazing investigation on Oklo.
It took Jake [founder] six years to complete his doctorate, and didn’t always meet the program’s demands, professors and colleagues say. Kord Smith, who taught DeWitte’s nuclear fuel cycle class and is now emeritus professor of the practice of nuclear science and engineering at MIT, describes him as “the bottom-performing student in the entire class.” He told Bloomberg Businessweek, “Jake has a million-dollar smile and a line of bullshit that never ends.” DeWitte says that Smith’s class “wasn’t worth my time and effort.” He adds that “if I didn’t find value in a course, or a course wasn’t well taught, I would do the bare minimum to get by.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-10-30/silicon-valley-s-ris…
Sounds like the next Elizabeth Holmes.
Has he been on the cover of Forbes magazine yet?
Sounds like the next Elizabeth Holmes.
That thought crossed my mind. Amazing story though.
It’s probably been posted before, but I read this and found it interesting:
“Bicycle is the slow death of the planet."
A banker made the economists think this when he said:
“A cyclist is a disaster for the country’s economy: he doesn’t buy cars and doesn’t borrow money to buy. He don't pay insurance policies. Don't buy fuel, don't pay to have the car serviced, and no repairs needed. He doesn't use paid parking. Doesn't cause any major accidents. No need for multi-lane highways.
He is not getting obese.
Healthy people are not necessary or useful to the economy. They are not buying the medicine. They dont go to hospitals or doctors.
They add nothing to the country's GDP.
"On the contrary, each new McDonald’s store creates at least 30 jobs—actually 10 cardiologists, 10 dentists, 10 dietitians and nutritionists—obviously as well as the people who work in the store itself."
Choose wisely: a bike or a McDonald's? It's something to think about.
PS: walking is even worse. Pedestrians don't even buy a bicycle.
It's what I've been trying to tell you - in reverse.
why they call them "consumers"
Similar to the argument that phones and the internet are net deflationary. They replace books, records, movies, watches, calculators etc etc. And also absorb most of your waking hours. For young ones, if it was an island holiday with no phone, or stay at home with phone then it would be a hard decision for many.
Aster is a next-generation decentralized exchange specializing in spot and perpetual trading across multiple blockchain networks, especially BNB Chain, Ethereum, Solana, and Arbitrum.
It has just launched 200x leverage trading as part of its latest perpetuals platform update.
The kids are going in to battle.
Anyone bullish on real house prices in NZ?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QNZR628BIS
Looks like a classic bubble popping to me - which if true - this probably isn't the floor (in my view). It's still another 20-30% away (what this means in nominal terms, I'm not sure...will inflation show up again? Or will house prices keep dropping in nominal terms while central banks try to keep inflation in the 1-3% band?)
Agreed. Will the promise of capital gains taxation be the silver bullet on speculation?
Im picking rental listings will start to accelerate as those looking sideways at the crap return hit the ejector button. When that becomes a stampede, who will buy it a at today's prices...?
🍿
Will the promise of capital gains taxation be the silver bullet on speculation?
Has it done so in any other territory it's been implemented in?
New taxes usually get born by the end user, and don't usually make whatever they're being collected on any cheaper.
Perhaps Australia also needs a CGT to constrain house prices...oh, wait...
"The latest data from Cotality shows national home values rose 1.1 per cent over the month of October, and 6.1 per cent over the year.
All capital cities saw rises, with auctions over spring hitting records as investors and first home buyers tried to outbid each other."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-03/investors-versus-first-home-buye…
Oh...so you are ok with Kiwis paying tax on their rentals at exit because Aussie does. Good on you.
I'm on the record here a year or so ago supporting a CGT for investment property and we already have the Brightline... Labors recent announcement is a virtue signaling sop to its envy acolytes & includes non investment family lifestyle properties such as baches & second homes.
Not for the reason that that's going to lower house prices: refer exhibit A (A for Australia).
Things that don't lower house prices:
-DTIs
-CGTs
-LVRs
In fact, they usually coincide with houses being less attainable for the middle and lower rungs. And yet, people still seem to naively want to believe the opposite.
People paying less is the main thing. Herd mentality possesses people to over pay
Not sure about your causality there. Surely it's unaffordable houses that cause regulation rather than the other way round.
In New Zealand at least, the RBNZ would never be so bold to aim for reducing house prices with their regulations. The aim it to slow further rises and it seems completely obvious to me that putting restrictions on credit will act to keep prices lower than the counterfactual.
But it's a start
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