Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ trimmed its term deposit rates today, but only down to the levels of its main rivals, and removing the small advantage. General Finance also trimmed its rates joining the sub-4% NBDTs. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
RISING QUICKLY
Complaints against real estate agents to the Real Estate Authority increased by +43% in the June year to a record high of 481. As at October there were 15,122 active individual real estate agents, which means about one complaint for every 40 active agents on average.
A NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT
The factory PMI for October has improved. Not by a huge amount, but significantly all the same. The best part is that this improvement is being led by new orders. This metric is now boasting four consecutive months above the breakeven 50 mark for the first time in three years.
TAKE OUR QUIZ
If you haven't already done so, don't forget to take this week's quiz. This week's version ends on Sunday. (A new one will be posted on Monday morning.) You can bookmark this page.
NZX50 TURNS LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is now down -0.7% so far on Friday. That puts it also down -0.7% over the past five working days. And it is up +3.4% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +6.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare has dropped another -0.6% so far today. Kathmandu, Oceania, Air NZ, and Genesis lead the gainers, Vista, Gentrack, Ryman, and Turners top the decliners.
OFF TO BRAZIL
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will attend the 30th annual United Nations Climate Change Summit (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, next week. “New Zealand needs all countries to take meaningful climate action, in line with rules we all agree to. This is critical for our economy and the Pacific region,” the North Shore MP said. Labour's Deborah Russell will also attend.
STILL EASING
China’s new home prices in October across their 70 major cities were unchanged from September by down dropped -2.2% from the same month a year ago. This was the same year-on-year decline they had in September. Most analysts expected a lesser decline of -2.0%. Seven of the 70 cities posited modest yaer-on-year price gains. None posted any gains for resales.
MIXED REAL ECONOMY SIGNALS
Meanwhile, China's retail sales held up better than expected, up +2.9% from a year ago with better holiday spending. Their official industrial production was up +4.9% from a year ago in October, a rather large easing in their 6.0% September growth rate.
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION RISES YEAR-ON-YEAR
China's electricity production fell in October, but that was less than expected and less that the usual seasonal pattern so it was up a rather large +7.9% from a year ago.
BRAINS GIVE UP FASTER THAN BODIES
In Australia, dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease, accounted for over 17,500 deaths in 2024 and is now the nation’s leading cause of death, overtaking ischaemic heart diseases, according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.47% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.45% and holding yesterday's jump. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.80%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at 4.19%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Wednesday's rate is up +8 bps at 4.18% recording yesterday's Aussie pressure. The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps at 4.11%.
EQUITIES DROP
The local equity market is now down -0.6% in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -1.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has fallen -1.5% at its open. Hong Kong is down -0.9% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. Wall Street fell -1.7% on the S&P500 in trade that increasingly soured during its Thursday session.
OIL RECOVERS
The oil price in the US has recovered +US$2/bbl at just under US$60.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just on US$64.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STAYS DOWN
There have been have been very few trades today so the price has held down at $43/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$4/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4190/oz.
NZD SLIGHTLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at just on 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +50 bps at 86.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 48.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +20 bps at 61.3.
BITCOIN EASES YET AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$99,372 and down -2.6% from yesterday. Volatility has been moderate again at just on +/- 2.8%.
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28 Comments
the margin trading of BTC is coming home to roost
Anything ratty or crypto related getting rag dolled at the moment.
Even my precious (IREN).
Yeah but that's a valuable company with forward contracts, it's not some meme asset that got pumped on mainstream Internet media.
That's true P. And it felt somewhat overcooked. Looking at 16x gains on the spreadsheets can potentially stroke the ego. Good to keep balanced.
I can only really value a business based on what it earns. Making a profit appears to be out of fashion these days, far more lucrative to wrap a story around a business, and keep the ball rolling based off increasing stock values.
I just won't touch, regardless of how much things might zip up and down.
sounds like nz property investment since 2010
Just trying to remember what it cost to build in 2010.
$1200 a square?
I think it was about 20 grand for the council to give you a thumbs up.
I built in Wgtn in 2011/12 for $1900/m2.
Above average spec. Architect designed, 210m2, 4brm, 2 bath, 3 story, eco block sandwich with concrete floors, radiators etc.
Builder was labour only contract, my wife project managed & engaged subbies directly. Bunnings trade account for main materials
There was a big shortage of building work at the time (post gfc downturn) & pencils were very sharp.
We built again in 2019 & $/m2 was approx double. For a std timber frame single level. Same builder & arrangement, I project managed.
I dont do a lot of housing, but once in a while I get roped into an architectural. Just came off one, $12k a square. But a lot of that is stupid exotic substrates.
Oh, the kitchen is from Germany? Looks like it's from Te Atatu.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia ranks around 11th globally by market capitalization among bank stocks in 2025 and has the largest PE ratios among global bank stocks.
It's the engine of the Aussie Ponzi and its influence is definitely felt in the Aotearoa Ponzi. Their business model is largely admired and emulated by the rest.
The stock price is down 11% this week. In the past 20 years, there have only been a handful of times when CBA's stock has dropped more than 10% in a week:
- Covid crash (March 2020)
- GFC (multiple times in 2008)
Probably nothing.
its just a flesh wound
Values will keep going wibbly wobbly till it all goes kaka.
*Munches on some of Averagemans popcorn*
Aussie economist Gerard Minack has revealed that Australia’s total residential land valuation as a percentage of GDP is now on par with Japan at its peak during the late 1980s land bubble.
My back of envelope suggests it's possibly worse, but will defer to Gerard.
If Japan’s housing market was considered the mother of bubbles in the 80s, what does that say about Aussie today?
Maccy B takes the baton on this, even saying: "Let’s face it: the majority of Australia’s wealth is fake."
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/11/the-great-housing-bubble-hits-…
At least Japan had the Plaza Accord as an excuse for the start of their bubble. Aus just has avarice .
Whatever the cause, next step is asset inflation, then liabilities increase commensurately, then assets deflate, then merde hits the fan
Like anything, the wealth is reliant on more people staying (or arriving) than leaving, and those people having the means to service whatever their costs are.
IMHO aussie ponzi been going so long there is almost zerohedge
shorting CBA is that hedge and recent falls are a very bad omen
Long CBA / Short (basket of ANZ,WPAC,NAB) is also unwinding here
its time to take money off table and step away from the FAN
raw hedges and just hedges are paying off.
Pretty much. Which is why $1m+ average house prices were never going to make sense in the long run.
What we have to remember is the value of residing in some places over others. There's a reason countries like Germany and Japan can't attract migrants at the scale required to sustain a debt laden consumer economy.
So governments in the colonies will continue to juice migration, until a depopulating nation works out an alternative viable economic model (assuming one exists, hasn't happened yet).
Once no one wants to come (or there's noone to come), she's all over rover. Or globalism totally falls apart and we don't have the economy to sustain the debt.
Which is why $1m+ average house prices were never going to make sense in the long run.
Actually, if you take the establishment position, it seems that a 7-figure average price is just getting started and nothing startling.
And remember when the Japanese bubble was in full swing, the West was simply in awe. The only people who could see anything wrong could be counted on one hand.
Eamonn Fingleton was one of those people and was mocked at the time. He described the role of Japanese banks during the bubble era as central and problematic. He argued that banks engaged in a late-1980s "lending binge," providing easy credit that helped inflate real estate and stock prices. Fingleton noted that the dominance of banks in Japan’s financial system allowed capital to be allocated based on government policy and corporate relationships, rather than strictly on market criteria. This close relationship led to aggressive lending, especially through loans backed by inflated real estate collateral.
The only people who could see anything wrong could be counted on one hand.
We now have the opposite problem; we are being bombarded with and endless stream of catastrophes just around the corner. It'd actually be nice if there were some sort of running tally comparing the forecasts with the unfolding reality.
This I believe is heavily influencing much of the market these days, everyone's running from one fire to another thinking it'll insulate them from the peril that's being broadcast 24/7.
I wonder if there is a correlation between reduced smoking and rising dementia deaths? Nicotine potentially reduces the risk of dementia while also reducing lifespan if delivered by smoking tobacco. The rise in dementia deaths is quite alarming although I see the median age is 88.7.
I'd put more money on rising levels of anxiety.
Interesting evolutionary theory I read the other day; females have menopause because childbirth is fairly dangerous, and they also live longer - because older females are needed to pass down acquired knowledge/wisdom.
And yet the world is being ruled mainly by old dudes. And it's a mess.
nothing can evolve in 1000 years
back then average life expectancy was way short
I call bullshit
You're an IT Guy yeah? Maths n stuff. Do you know how averages work?
Average life expectancies were really low until we worked out how to stop mothers and infants from dying, either during childbirth or from any manner of diseases that'd take out a kiddie. A quarter of humans would die at, or shortly after birth. And then many more as toddlers or young kids. That brings the average down. Way down.
People have lived to very old ages, for a long time though. There's just a lot more of them now. But if there was a tribe/village of 120 people, good chance you'd have an oldie or two.
The biblical 3 score and ten
Huzzah!
We have collusion.
You'd want a fit young man for leader (cause he'd have to fight and kill stuff).
And Bettie White to tell you a bedtime story.
Most of the men would be dead, or knackered.
Instead, the world's run by a stupid old orange dickhead.
But if there was a tribe/village of 120 people, good chance you'd have an oldie or two.
60 year old woman cannot pass on those genes, I am still calling Bs
Jesus wept.
She already has and her superior older knowledge kept the tribe (and genes) going.
Most smaller brained mammals don't go through menopause - there's usually a reason for the adaptation.
Or we can just say a supernatural deity did it and keep running this model.
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