Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
New NBDT lender Welcome has trimmed its minimum mortgage lending rates today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
SELLING ONE BIG DIVISION
Fletcher Building is seeking offers for its residential business before Christmas. The sale of these residential operations might raise in excess of $850 mln for the struggling construction giant. The news has made no difference to the FBU share price today.
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE (OR IMPROVE)
The RBNZ released the results of its Q4-2025 business expectations survey (M15) today. Businesses expected inflation to slip slightly in the future, seeing it at 2.4% in a year. They also see wage inflation at 2.6%, also mower than previously. And they don't see much change in the expected jobless rate which they expect to be 5.1% in a year. This is all a 'green light' for more RBNZ rate cuts. If Nicola W can't revive the economy, Christian H will have to.
TAKE OUR NEW QUIZ
If you haven't already done so, don't forget to take this week's quiz. Join the more than 600 who did it last week. This week's version ends on Sunday. You can bookmark this page.
NZX50 RETREATS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% so far on Tuesday following global trends. That puts it also down -1.3% over the past five working days. And it is up +2.8% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +5.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is little-changed so far today. Serko surges, Kathmandu, a2 Milk, and SkyCity casino also lift; Investore, Meridian, Freightways, and Briscoes weigh on the index.
HUGE BOND FUNDS RAISED IN SYNDICATED TAP - HUGER DEMAND
The Treasury (DMO) has offered $6 bln in a May 2036 bond. Demand was huge, exceeding $24 bln. It was all placed at a yield to maturity of 4.34%. It does make you wonder where the unsuccessful $18 bln will end up. (As bit as today's demand was, it was less than the $31.3 bln offered in the early July 2025 similar event.)
NOT TAKING A POSITION
The Australian central bank released the minutes of its last meeting on November 4 today, close-watched because they have rising inflation and a relatively strong labour market. But they downplayed both aspects, calling them 'slight' and expecting them to be transitory. Policy was still viewed as slightly restrictive, and the board saw “no need to adjust” the cash rate. They said patience was deemed appropriate while assessing spare capacity, labour trends, and policy stance. Scenarios supporting a hold included stronger demand, lower supply capacity, or a view that policy was no longer restrictive. Conversely, further easing could be warranted if labour conditions weaken or growth disappoints. Basically, you don't learn anything by reading these minutes.
LIBERAL BLOOD-LETTING
And staying in Australia, the wavering Liberal Party, which has just seen a sharpish shift to the right in a move that destabilised new leader Sussan Ley (and who is under threat from two challengers), is also seeing a coup take place in their Victorian state division, and a likely coup in their NSW state division. All these moves by inhouse 'conservatives' (ie Abbott-wing) against 'moderate' forces will likely make them less electable.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +2 bp at 2.50% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.46%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.80%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.36% after yesterday's run-up. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Monday's rate is up +1 bp at 4.30%. The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps at 4.13%.
EQUITIES ALL RETREAT
The local equity market is now down -0.5% in Tuesday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -1.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has fallen -1.7% at its open. Hong Kong is down -1.4% and Shanghai is down -0.6%. Singapore is down -0.1% at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 down -0.8%.
OIL HOLDS LOWER
The oil price in the US has held at its lower level, still just on US$59.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just under US$64/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STAYS DOWN ON TINY VOLUME
There have been have been very few trades today and the price has held down at $43/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RETREATS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$70/oz from this morning, now at US$4020/oz.
NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday at just on 56.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 48.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is little-changed at 61.2.
BITCOIN VERY BEARISH
The bitcoin price is now at US$91,367 and down -3.7% from this time yesterday in a growing rout. It peaked at US$124,715 on October 6 so it down -26% since then, in full bear mode. Update: It has now dropped below US89,000, down -28% from its peak. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.
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34 Comments
Bitcoin has just broken below $90,000, how much further will it fall…?
(edited)
To their physical value?
They are fundamentally worthless, so the bottom is $0.
Speaking of riddles - How Long is a Chinaman.
22 yards
Ah ha, a rare delivery indeed, don’t think NZ has ever had one, not at test level at least.
"How Long is a Chinaman"
As Light as an Amelican is ?
Some interesting bouncing going on.
Methinks you are confusing Rodney Hogg with Brad Hogg.
RIP Crypto Bros. Myself included.
Ratty is only down 28% from ATH. It has fallen more 28%+ from ATH at least 15 times since its inception, with even deeper corrections occurring in virtually every major market cycle.
Yeah it will probably go up again. It needed this fall so the speculators could become interested again, it was starting to look somewhat stable (which would be its demise as it’s only use is speculation)
It's a store of wealth also.
If you want your wealth to jump up and down like a Jack Russel Terrier on PCP.
Crapto is tied to both liquidity and the fortunes of the tech sector.
If the AI jig is up, or someone like Tesla gets accurately priced, it could be bad for a while.
It’s just a transfer of wealth to the smart / lucky from the noobs / fools.
Ayup. As technology improves it's much more efficient to commit fraud on extremely large scales.
Funny thing is that you and I could be the fools, the ones who don’t buy in and try to actually produce something instead.
I spose I could've never invested in my own productivity, and instead worked in some sort of middle management job and struck it rich in some sort of meme investment. Then I'd think I was pretty smart.
Be greedy when others are fearful. It’s easy to say but so much harder to do.
Be greedy when others are fearful. It’s easy to say but so much harder to do.
Yes indeed. Since 2017, Bitcoin has seen:
1. 10+ declines of -25% or more
2. 6 declines of -50% or more
3. 3 declines of -75% or more
Every single decline of the current magnitude or more since Bitcoin's inception has been followed by new record highs.
Imagine if you just worked out how to make a good, but not parabolic return fairly consistently and kept building from there.
Boring!
Imagine if you just worked out how to make a good, but not parabolic return fairly consistently and kept building from there.
Depends P. Looking at Bitcoin price charts on a linear versus exponential (logarithmic) scale produces dramatically different interpretations of its growth and volatility.
And if you close your eyes and squint doggie doo looks like chocolate soft serve.
You seem to like stats and numbers. What's the likelihood of most people realizing large gains from things that shoot up and down wildly in value all the time?
For the record P, the last two major ratty corrections - -32% and -34% - on the road to 126k were greater than the current one in % terms, even with ratty at 89k.
None of this is very valuable information.
You talk of Ponzis and wanting to protect your money from central banks, but your focus seems to be on trying to find a vehicle that'll 10 or 100x your money in a non sustainable timeframe.
Bitcoin (or whatever speculative asset) gets credit, but it's the human irrational behaviour that drives price. What makes one assume that same behaviour will continue?
Japan's 10y is continuing its sell-off 1.75%
Oct 2025, I believe was the peak for US equities and Japan and Australia. AI bubble is deflating, yen carry trade unwind. Oct 2025 the market switch to bear mode. Jan 2026 US will be in recession.
JPY carry trade unwind will be devastating for the Ponzi. Aotearoa and Aussie do not rely on offshore wholesale funding for specu-vestors, but the unwind should cause stress everywhere. When a butterfly flaps its wings. But the carry trade is Mothra.
"...more than $59 billion was wiped off the market value of Australian stocks today."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-18/asx-market-sump-worst-since-libe…
No, it wasn't.
It was never there.
And there's a lot more not there, waiting to be 'wiped'.
Sheesh.
So many people believe in proxy 'stores of wealth' - but determinedly avoid asking what wealth really is. Probably so they can believe their current understanding was correct. Which it wasn't.
I mean, if your default view is we're on the precipice of Armageddon then not much is worth anything.
For those that correctly guess the sun rising again tomorrow, you can ascribe all sorts of values.
I have my own view of wealth, not monetary - but I still accept I can't "store" it. At best I can foster and cultivate it, as a custodian.
But then there's also a wider economy I can participate in, able to provide far more than I can just at my own devices. That has another value system, that follows some sort of logic.
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