Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Again, no changes to report today. But we have heard that the SBS Bank special channel 3.99% fixed offer will close at the end of today. Be quick!. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
First Credit Union trimmed some rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
IMPORTS PEAK IN OCTOBER EVEN THOUGH EXPORTS RISE STRONGLY
Even though our October exports rose a very strong +16% to $6.5 bln, our imports rose +11% to $8.0 bln and a record high for any month, leaving an overall October deficit of -$1.5 bln. But at least that was down from the almost -$1.7 bln in the same 2024 month. One reason exports rose quickly was the sharp rise in beef and lamb exports. In fact, meat exports hit a new all-time record high for the year to October. For beef, the key customers were the US and China. For lamb, it was the EU and China. But our overall October merchandise trade deficit doubled with China, stayed about in balance with Australia, halved with the US, but rose with Japan. With South Korea it eased back but is still a very large negative, about matching the deficit we had with China.
COMMERCIAL BUILDING CONSENTS
Building permits for new office and factory buildings are on the rise but warehouse consents took a breather. There was a big jump in consents for new office buildings but only in Auckland.
ANOTHER ONE CUTS
ANZ has followed BNZ and cut its 2025/26 forecast for the dairy payout. BNZ estimates $9.50/kgMS whereas ANZ has opted for $9.65/kgMS, both down from their original $10kg/MS.
BILLINGS RISE (LESS THAN INFLATION) BUT THEY ARE BEING PAID OFF FASTER
Local billings on credit cards were up +2.2% in October from a year ago. But overseas billings on these cards were down from September and essentially unchanged from a year ago. The travel and online spending impulse for foreign merchants is showing signs of flagging. The proportion of credit card debt that incurs interest slipped to 50.9%, and that is a record low. Interest rates may be falling generally, but credit card interest rates are essentially not, still averaging 19.6%.
RISING AGAIN
Our tracking of commercial lease listings is rising again, now 25,600. They are at record levels on the North Shore, South Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Nelson, Christchurch, Queenstown (even if very low) and Dunedin.
NZX50 FALLS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.5% so far on Friday following global trends. That puts it also down -0.7% over the past five working days. But it is up +2.3% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +4.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.3% so far today. Turners, Kathmandu, Investore and Serko lead the gainers, but Oceania, Infratil, Argosy and Summerset weigh on the NZX50.
JAPAN EXPANDS
Japanese exports came in stronger in October than expected, up +3.6% from a year ago when a +1% rise was anticipated. That dovetails into a better than expected 'flash' November factory PMI for Japan - but it isn't yet quite at the expansion level. But their 'flash' services PMI certainly is and it expanded faster in October than expected.
TAKE OUR QUIZ
Just a reminder that our quiz is open still for this week, and you can play until 4pm on Sunday. Last week more than 600 people played. This week indications are it has remained just as popular. It is open for all, Supporters and those yet to sign up. Anyone can play.
SWAP RATES HOLD LOW
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps at 2.46% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 4.47%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.81%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.29%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Thursday's rate is up +4 bps at 4.25%. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps at 4.10%.
EQUITIES QUITE NEGATIVE
The local equity market is down -0.6% in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -1.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has fallen -1.8% at its open. Hong Kong is down -1.6% and Shanghai is down -1.3%. Singapore is also lower, down -0.8% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade after the Nvidia result with the S&P500 down -1.6%.
OIL EASES FURTHER
The oil price in the US has fallen another -US$1 to just on US$58.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just over US$62.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS LOW
We haven't found any trades today so the price is unchanged at $44/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$10/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4068/oz.
NZD SOFT
The Kiwi dollar is little changed but with a soft undertone from this time yesterday at now just under 56 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +200 bps at 86.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 48.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -10 bps at just on 60.7.
BITCOIN DIVES
The bitcoin price is now at US$85,498 and a -7.6% dive from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high at just on +/- 3.7%.
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44 Comments
Am I the only one that finds it hard to work out whether US$85,498 for a few bytes of nothingness is a bargain or insanity? Its probably a bargain I guess, will be "worth" double in the next few months.
Usually I limit my investments to things that have consistent demand, most of the time. So if I need to liquidate them, I don't have to worry so much about the timing.
You have to treat something like Bitcoin the same as you would precious art, baseball cards, beanie babies, that sort of thing. Prices can run away in the right sort of economy, but it's usually not a rational or sustainable economy (assuming theres such a thing).
Bitcoin will have a value as long as "the ponzi" exists. But if the ponzi falls apart, Bitcoin goes to zero.
"But if the ponzi falls apart" - that never seems to happen. In the meantime you could have made millions. As could I.
But would you be happy, would you have any sense of satisfaction? 😁
I’d probably be a tosser. Maybe that’s true either way.
"But if the ponzi falls apart" - that never seems to happen. In the meantime you could have made millions. As could I.
I mean, money is pretty arid, but I done pretty good in my life without specuvesting. I haven't done all my invoicing, but I think I made more this week than any other week in my life. Although I need to, I spent a couple months this year just being a bum.
Sometimes a meal is as good as a feast.
Bums and millionaires have a lot in common when it comes to what they do all day
That's why I've always found the retirement dream so amusing
If I grind my guts for 45+ years
I'll be able to live the life of a beneficiary
Plenty of history to reflect on then. For instance, tulips or bubbles in the South Seas?
Yet. We're operating on a very short but volatile time scale here
Am I the only one that finds it hard to work out whether US$85,498 for a few bytes of nothingness is a bargain or insanity?
Mike McGlone of Bloomie Intelligence reckons USD10K is fair value in the present environment - getting close to some my lowest purchases around the 3K mark.
Many institutions are actively shorting BTC treasury companies like MicroStrategy as part of strategic positioning or direct bearish bets against its Bitcoin exposure. This short interest has increased notably over the past months, with recent data indicating more than 25 million shares sold short, representing about 10% of the company's float and a rise of nearly 20% month-over-month.
Legendary short-seller Jim Chanos reportedly closed his long Bitcoin/short MicroStrategy position after profiting from both sides of the trade during recent volatility.
If all these wealthy people are in, if I get in too, I can also be wealthy.
You've paid $60k or so for Bitcoin. And you think it's fair value today is $10k. If anything I'd bought for the purposes of investment even halved in value, it'd be gone by lunchtime.
If all these wealthy people are in, if I get in too, I can also be wealthy.
Only way for you P is to DCA - buy and hold.
No. I actually produce things. I work out what people want, use money and buy plant and machinery, pay for some labour, and make/grow it for them. It's the most efficacious way I've encountered to generate and build a surplus.
Old and fuddy-duddy I know.
Psychology's the same P.
45 days ago and we are at an all time high and you're thinking to yourself "why didn't I have some exposure".
Today you're more in the camp that ratty's literally going to zero.
Apart from this website it's not even on my radar.
One of us keeps a rolling tally of big movers they didn't invest enough in. The other doesn't have a need to look back and worry if they zigged when they should have zagged.
Totally different psychology. You have no value add.
One of us keeps a rolling tally of big movers they didn't invest enough in
100%. But that's natural. Let's say you have $100K to allocate to Ethereum. You DCA in starting around USD100 up to USD2,500. It's only natural to think "damn, I should have gone heavier at USD100."
100%. But that's natural
Only if you're living in regret.
I have had my share of loss but overall I've done better than I could've imagined.
If you invested $100,000 in Ethereum at $100 per ETH, you would have 1,000 ETH. With Ethereum currently trading around $2,862, your investment would be worth approx $2,862,000.
That's a 2,762% ROI. Nothing to sneeze at P. You could have picked up ETH at $100 in 2020.
I started a business for $500 that went on to make millions of dollars.
Bitcoin is all crowd psychology. I would not do there because I can't depend on crowd psychology. Anything can happen.
What asset class is immune from crowd psychology? Govt bonds? The Ponzi? CBA bank shares?
The Atlantic on how crypto could take down the financial world. Narrative goes like this:
- The promise of stablecoins is false, they are too cumbersome or dangerous to be used as a medium of exchange
- Nobody uses stablecoins to make payments
- The only use of stables is for offshore funds to hold USD without submitting to KYC
- Tether is inventing a new coin that will be anti-KYC? (extra weird lol)
- DEXes mean that foreign non GENIUS regulated stablecoins can enter the US freely
- Stablecoins could get really big and become interconnected with the economy
- Only the largest GENIUS stablecoins face audits
- GENIUS issuers holding USTs are subject to duration risk if interest rates rise (lol)
- Only "bad actors" will want to buy stablecoins
- Stablecoins aren't backed by FDIC insurance
- The US govt will have to bail out stablecoins just like they bailed out MMMFs in 08
- Congress only passed GENIUS because of Trump's corruption or because they all collectively lost their minds at the same time or something
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/11/cryptocurrency-economy-financ…
The use case as currency is pretty tenuous.
So it's really just an agreed store of wealth between collectors. Of which there's plenty of alternatives already. Many of which are way more interesting. I'd rather spend more money collecting old vehicles than digital nothing's.
Tether currently holds significantly more US Treasuries than Aotearoa P. As of the second quarter of 2025, Tether's total exposure to U.S. Treasury securities exceeded $127 billion, which includes $105.5 billion in direct holdings and $21.3 billion in indirect exposure. This places Tether miles ahead of Aotearoa and other sovereign nations such as South Korea and Germany.
Both of our comments can be true.
it sounds like all the fiat $ that exist on raid diskpacks to me... merely 1s 0s
if you are in NZs biggest bank DC, and you do not move around all the lighting turns off to "save" money
all the disk packs spin and the lan/coms Leds blink..... and we all have faith in the 1s and 0s
its turtles all the way down already, its just which fairy dust you believe in
a kiwi tenner is worthless in the congo to buy water.
you have to believe , TINA
turtles all the way down
Good song
a kiwi tenner is worthless in the congo to buy water.
I'd wager the kiwi dollar is accepted more places than crapto
Bitcoin is well used as a currency overseas where the use case is an alternative to an unreliable financial system, people need to transact internationally at low cost, or people live in insecure locations with no reliable options for secure store of value.
And before the pros weigh in - the lightning network is the low cost layer
Bitcoin is well used as a currency overseas
How well? As in, relative to regular old money, and relative to the amount of Bitcoin just being traded amoung Bitcoin collectors?
Check this out, there's real utility in its use
https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1833875802326175939
As for hard numbers - they're hard to track unfortunately. For bitcoin main Blockchain is around 400k/day but that doesn't differentiate between bitcoin users and bitcoin holders/traders. There's of course many cryptocurrencies, some of which are made to be inherently private so we'll never get that kind of data
So when I said
The use case as currency is pretty tenuous
And most of your use cases are in failed African states.
Probably tells us that it's use as a currency is fairly niche. This is not replacing how most people use money in an economy. In fact I'd be fairly confident in claiming the USD has a much more widespread usage as an alternate currency in many places with hyperinflation, no banking etc.
In fact I'd be fairly confident in claiming the USD has a much more widespread usage as an alternate currency in many places with hyperinflation, no banking etc.
Yes P. Argentines frequently convert pesos into stablecoins (most often USD-pegged, like Tether , USD Coin , and DAI) to preserve their wealth as the peso’s value erodes, especially during times of economic and political uncertainty.
Stablecoins are commonly used for local and cross-border transactions, allowing for fast and cost-efficient payment of invoices, remittances to family abroad, and even payroll for freelance or remote workers.
An increasing number of merchants and service providers in Argentina now accept stablecoins directly, both online and in physical stores, as demand for digital dollars grows and as a response to limitations on cash withdrawals.
But they use actual USD way more than a crypto, aye?
Same in places like Lebanon.
In fact, there's a larger demand for USD outside the US than in it.
You're correct P. What's interesting is the adoption rates. The USD has hundreds of years of history.
Also correct concerning the value add of crypto... It's only the miners and developers who are actually adding value, the holders aren't.
I've respect those who add real world value much more than those who "add value" via capital appreciation without actually doing any work.
Ostensibly with crypto, we have just made 100s of ways to do something we already do, just without any oversight or infrastructure.
A good way to think about it is a bit like digital media consumption. Yes, you can go P2P, and get movies and music for free. But the interface is less user friendly than paying for a streaming service.
There's a value there for some of the use cases you have mentioned, banking for the non-banked, moving money around, that sort of thing.
But that should be a service, not an asset.
And before the pros weigh in - the lightning network is the low cost layer
Zcash is typically much cheaper than Bitcoin for direct on-chain payments, both in terms of transaction fees and predictable costs, especially outside congestion periods.Zcash network fees are usually a fraction of a cent (e.g., default wallet fee of 0.00001–0.0001 ZEC, which can be less than $0.01 per transaction at current exchange rates).
I note an interesting piece form Mike Riddell on the lack of executive succession and quality of executives at the RBNZ.
No internal successor to the Governor since 1982!! Contrast that with the RBA where almost all are internal appointments. To my mind, that suggest a chronic cultural problem. Talent leaves when the culture is toxic in my experience.
an obvious successor struggles to be seen in a woke gender diversity culture....
everyone has to be considered, not only the best soul. You cannot accept and groom a 2nd in command , can you imagine the politics.
Best is subjective. Peter principle reigns
Canada’s largest pension fund (CPIBB), has disclosed that it acquired 393,322 shares of BTC treasury company MicroStrategy in the third quarter of 2025. At the time of purchase, this position was valued at approximately $127 million, but its current market value is around $80 million due to recent declines in MicroStrategy’s stock price, which remains heavily tied to Bitcoin.
On the SEC’s EDGAR page for institutional 13F filings, you can corroborate the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board’s holdings in MicroStrategy using the Q3 2025 report for the most direct, official evidence.
Aussie happy at 2 runs an over here...
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