Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, interrupted with news today that will be dominated by the vile attack in Sydney, extremism begetting extremism all permitted by unfiltered hatreds flowing out from its center. Financial news seems trivial in light of this. Of course we won't be covering this Australian tragedy. But it is likely to harden attitudes just when they need to soften.
In the meantime, we are noting tech weakness dominating equity markets, and Fed speaker comments (here and here) pushing long benchmark bond yields higher. The USD is soft and down nearly -1% for the week.
But first, the week ahead will locally feature Wednesday's current account data, and more so by Thursday's GDP tracking of Q3-2025 economic activity. The final consumer and business confidence survey results will likely come this week too.
In Australia on the economic front, it will be about tracking household wealth, also out on Thursday.
In the US, they will release catch-up data for non-farm payrolls on Wednesday for both October (??) and November. (+35,000 expected) That will be followed by November CPI data (3.2% expected). A slew of other US activity data will hit the news as well.
In Japan, financial markets will be glued to their central bank meeting results (expect a +25 bps rise to 0.75%) along with a 3%+ CPI reading. From China, they will have their big monthly data dump of retail and industrial activity. In India they will release a lot of data too, including PMIs, but then, we will also get PMIs from many other countries, including our own PSI as well.
Over the weekend, China said its new loan demand remains unusually weak, and in November came in even lower than the weak forecasts by observers. Chinese banks extended ¥390 bln in new yuan loans, up from the unusually low October level but still below both last year’s weak ¥580 bln and market expectations of ¥500 bln. Soft household demand continues to weigh on stimulus efforts. Remember, over the past five years, this loan demand has averaged ¥830 bln in a November month so the current drag is notable.
And it is looking increasingly like investors, including boardroom directors in charge of making capital expenditure decisions, have gone on a quiet strike in China.
And staying in China, things just got worse for wavering China Vanke on Friday, once one of China's largest property developers. The Shenzhen-city controlled business was unable to get bondholder support for its latest financial restructuring. So current lenders took more of its assets as security.
India's CPI inflation remains very low at +0.7% in November from a year ago, up from its record low level in October. This was driven by an almost -4% fall in food prices.
India's bank loan growth is back up +11.5% from a year ago and its fastest expansion this year.
In Malaysia, both their retail sales (+7.2% year-on-year) and their industrial production (+6.0%) expanded at an accelerating pace in October data released over the weekend.
In Japan, it is becoming clear (from company financial reporting) that the Trump tariffs on Japanese exports have backfired. Japanese companies raised their prices after the initial tariff hit, the Americans paid the higher prices, and when Washington backed away from some of the more extreme levels after negotiation, and those hiked prices didn't retreat. They stayed up and boosted Japanese company profits. The picture was probably similar elsewhere. The ultimate losers have been the American buyers. American reshoring has been weak, so much so that one Fed member is now more worried about jobs than inflation.
Canadian building consents surprised analysts with quite a surge in October, especially residential consents for multi-unit buildings in Toronto. That drove an outsized +15% national gain from September to be +19% higher than a year ago. On an annual basis, residential consents are also up +19% with Ontario up more than +28%.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.20%, unchanged from this time Saturday, up +6 bps from this time last week. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +67 bps. Their 1-5 curve is still positive by +22 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is positive by +52 bps. So all the moves up are at the long end. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.85%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is also holding at 1.95%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.74%, down -2 bps from Saturday, up +3 bps for the week. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.63%, unchanged from Saturday, up +15 bps for the week.
The price of gold will start today at US$4299/oz, and up +US$5 from Saturday, up +US$84 from a week ago and back near its mid-October peak. And we should note that silver unchanged at US$62/oz.
American oil prices are holding at just on US$57.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just over US$61/bbl. Both are -US$2.50 lower than a week ago. Separately, it is very noticeable that the North American rig counts are still languishing near their four year lows. No-one is rushing to invest as prices and demand stay very low.
The Kiwi dollar is -10 bps softer from Saturday, now at just over 58 USc. But it is up +30 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged too at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2, and up +10 bps from Saturday, up +20 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,831 and down -1.6% from this time Saturday, and essentially unchanged from last week at this time. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low, at just on +/- 0.9%.
Please note, we do not want comments on the Sydney tragedy. This is not a forum to vent on that.
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15 Comments
In Japan, it is becoming clear (from company financial reporting) that the Trump tariffs on Japanese exports have backfired. Japanese companies raised their prices after the initial tariff hit, the Americans paid the higher prices, and when Washington backed away from some of the more extreme levels after negotiation, and those hiked prices didn't retreat. They stayed up and boosted Japanese company profits. The picture was probably similar elsewhere.
Thanks DC. That cheered me up considerably.
Willis is going to have to spin a compelling story on the Surplus
Right now it's looking like Turtles (and Green Shoots) all the way down.
Some of you will remember Bernard Whimp (low ball offers etc.) His latest venture Chance Voight Investments based in Rangiora have just had a visit from the FMA and liquidators have been appointed.
Perhaps he would have risen to greatness as a politician or a lawyer, careers where the bs never catches up with you?
A hopeful article from The Spinoff about the coming death of special character protections:
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/15-12-2025/rip-special-character-prot…
"In a section on what authorities will no longer be allowed to consider in their planning decisions, it bans them from taking into account “character, appearance, aesthetic qualities, or other physical features”
"One thing’s for sure: these suburbs are dying. In both Auckland and Wellington, their populations are dropping. Children aren’t living there anymore and school rolls are shrinking. Bishop is clearly weary of entire well-connected, high-amenity suburbs being locked off from development, especially when many of the houses within are of dubious historic value."
My view is if the residents of the leafy suburbs want their villas to have heritage protections, then they should be required to live a heritage lifestyle. Cut electricity and outlaw motor vehicles. Make it so they are really doing their part to keep the heritage alive...
That's a great idea, including paying heritage tax rates.....!!!!!!!
I am keen, no gst, no road charges, way lower excise on booze, (if any) lower income tax rates...
The heritage healthcare sux though
"Heritage" acolytes will spend any amount of other people's money on other people's property to satisfy their virtue signaling personal opinions.
There is ability to earn a good living as an acolyte of council regulations (both enforcing and negotiating them). And once they possess the expertise they get asked on how to improve the regulations.
My heart breaks for the Bondi victims. Puts everything else into perspective.
[Comment removed. I did ask (above, in the story) that comments on the tragedy be refrained on this website, precisely to avoid this type of tribal points scoring. Please don't do it. The tragedy is bad enough without others trying to inflame the culture wars. If you must, use the Murdoch/Fox forums. Just not here. Ed ]
While I understand, and can accept, that you do not want the comments to turn political, I cannot tolerate the pithy reference to Murdoch/Fox. The rise in antisemitism has been feverishly supported by the mainstream media. FWIW, I was 3km from the attack at the time and have close friends who had friends shot. I will retire on this comment and withdraw my financial support. I wish you well.
"The rise in antisemitism has been feverishly supported by the mainstream media."
That is rubbish. The only place I see accusations like that is in The Australian, which I read as part of my job (along with hundreds of other sources). To be fair I don't watch Fox (or any TV broadcast news). But it is an invention of the After Dark talking heads that The Australian gives a megaphone to. If all you follow is them, you would think it was pervasive ("feverishly supported"), but wider reading shows it just isn't.
This is unfortunate. People give opinions, which are quite measured compared to the tribal nature of many of those who have been leading the ideological narratives.
But all power to interest dot co for having an editorial stance.
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