Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news there were many central banks reviewing their settings overnight and most stayed unchanged.
But first up today we can report a considerable surprise in the November CPI result. Markets had expected a 3.1% rate. But there was no October reading due to shutdown problems and this may have affected the collecting of November data. In any case the official November result was published as a rise of 2.7%, a sharply lower level no analyst saw coming. Apparently, falling rents were a big part of the retreat. (And don't forget, the last US BLS boss who delivered unwelcome results was fired by the Administration.). In any event, financial markets have taken it at face value, accepting there is no affordability problem, Just as the President has claimed.
And official US initial jobless claims came in at the expected +255,000, so there are now 1.882 mln people on these benefits, fractionally more than the 1.864 mln in the same week a year ago.
In non-Administration controlled data, the news isn't so bright. The Philly Fed's December factory survey fell sharply again, retreating as it has done in the past two months. And this came as new orders actually rose, although from a low level. It is a survey that has reported 'future conditions' very positive for more than a year now, but also reporting 'current conditions languishing.
The similar Kansas City Fed factory survey fell into a mild contraction in December, a sharpish fall from November. Again, those surveyed were still upbeat probably because new orders ticked higher. But more companies are reporting higher prices paid for supplies.
In Canada, they are reporting rising SME business optimism, and the highest since May 2022.
The Taiwan central bank held its policy rate unchanged at 2% overnight. The ECB held their unchanged too at 2.15%.
Sweden held their 1.75% rate unchanged as well at their overnight meeting. Norway held their at 4.0%. But the English central bank had a need to cut theirs, by -25 bps to 3.75%, in a split 5-4 decision (the four dissenters wanted no cut.) Japan will review its policy rate later today and is widely expected to raise it by +25 bps.
In Australia, inflation expectations rose to 4.7% in December from 4.5% in November, and have now been at or above 4.5% for six of the past seven months.
Global freight rates for containerised cargoes rose +12% last week to be -43% lower than year-ago levels. The latest rise was driven by very much stronger demand in the outbound China to the US rates. Separately, bulk cargo freight rates fell -13% last week but are now +50% higher than year ago levels.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.13%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +65 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now positive by +17 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is now positive by +49 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is down a sharp -5 bps at 1.79%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 1.97% ahead of today's central bank review. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.72%, down -4 bps from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.56%, down -2 bps from yesterday..
Wall Street opened firmer in Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +1.1%, jumping on the US CPI result. Overnight, European markets were mixed between Frankfurt's +1.0% rise dip and London's +0.6% rise. Yesterday Tokyo ended down -1.0%. Hong Kong was up +0.1%. Shanghai ended its Thursday up +0.2%. Singapore dipped -0.1%. The ASX200 ended little-changed. But the NZX50 ended down -0.3%.
The price of gold will start today at US$4367/oz, and up another +US$35 from yesterday, and which we make as a new record high. Silver is at US$63/oz and sharply back off its record high.
American oil prices are slightly firmish from yesterday at just under US$56.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still just under US$60/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, still at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are -20 bps softer at 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 62, and again little-changed from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,092 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just on +/- 2.3%.
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7 Comments
And Trump has admitted they're after Venezuelan oil.
And Carney is reduced to wanting a second pipeline for their tar-sludge.
But growth doesn't rely on a finite energy source, right?
And the timing of yesterdays' GDP hype was noted (please spend up large for Xmas, GROWTH needs you to consume the remainder of the planet, double-quick).
The little men in suits are playing in injury-time.
Trump to reschedule Cannabis
"Today, I'm pleased to announce that I will be signing an executive order to reschedule marijuana from a Schedule 1 to a Schedule 3 controlled substance with legitimate medical uses," Trump said.
Where america goes, the world has historically led, but this is well overdue. I see this as groundbreaking for other nations to enact more positive reform in this pace, without harming their perceived relationship status with the USA. Imagine what the southern states will have to re-look at where even possession still carries big jail time, and the egos of the police there will struggle to adapt.
"Frankfurt's +1.0% dip"
?
Thanks. Should be "Frankfurt's +1.0% rise."
The annual inflation rate in the UK slowed to 3.2% in November 2025, the lowest in eight months, compared to 3.6% in October and forecasts of 3.5%. The figure is also lower than the Bank of England's prediction of 3.4%
That doesn't sound like a good time for a cash rate cut! November might be a fluke, and the previous 5 months were all 3.6% - 3.8%
Too many promises; too few future physical goodsOur Finite World
But so many kkep on fiercely concentrating on the 'price' of keystroke-issued proxy.
It's interesting to watch folk default-recoiling - and to guess why.
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