Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news precious metals prices are zooming higher today, most to new all-time heights.
But first in the US, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is back being tracked following the shutdown and it shows activity still notably lower than its long run trend, even if it did improve in September from August. It is barely back to the same drag level it was a year ago.
American holiday retail sales for November and December are projected to grow between +3.7% and +4.2% over the same months last year, a weaker gain than last year's +4.3% increase. Revenue growth in November was about +1% compared to November 2024, with flat unit demand. Consumers are reportedly cautious, focusing spending on necessities, and higher-income consumers are driving most of the spending, while lower-income consumers remain constrained. Inflation-adjusted sales volumes are probably not growing. Ecommerce is a bright spot, with Deloitte forecasting a +7% to +9% growth for the season.
In Canada, their November PPI came in +6.1% higher than a year ago. But this result was twisted by the very sharp run-up in the costs of precious metals, and diesel (after US sanctions on Russian diesel twisted their demand for Canadian product). But even without those, they would have had more than a +4% rise.
In Japan at one point yesterday, their 10 year government bond hit 2.10% and its highest level since 1999. It has eased slightly since, but this has had a depressive impact on the Yen, and there is market talk of intervention now.
In China, their central bank held key lending rates at record lows for a seventh consecutive month in December, as expected. Earlier they had left their seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 1.4% and this is now their main policy rate. They seem to have less intentions for more monetary stimulus as the economy looks like it is on track to meet this year’s growth target of "around 5%".
And staying in China, they have slapped some substantial duty penalties on certain EU dairy products. The claim is that the French and Dutch subsidise their production. Although these new duties are relatively narrowly targeted, it will be a major trade escalation in the eye of the EU.
And we should also note that India and New Zealand have agreed a new substantial free trade deal. Almost all New Zealand business groups have welcomed the breakthrough, which the Indians are using as a benchmark for deep agreements with other countries. But 2026 is election year and one party, NZ First, is using the deal to promote its anti-immigration credentials.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +66 bps. Their 1-5 curve is still positive by +19 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is still positive by +53 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.84%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 2.07% and a new 20 year high. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.81%, up +5 bps from yesterday and its highest since October 2023. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.60%, up +8 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street has opened its week with the S&P500 up +0.6%. But European markets were generally lower between Frankfurt's no change, and London & Paris's -0.4% dip. Tokyo ended its Monday session up +1.8%, Hong Kong was up +0.4% and Shanghai was up +0.7%. Singapore ended up a strong +0.9% for them. The ASX200 ended its Monday with a +0.9% gain. The NZX50 rose +1.3% in its Monday trade.
The price of gold will start today at US$4437/oz, and up +US$99 from yesterday and easily a new record high. Silver has surged to, up +US$2 to just under US$69/oz, and also a new record high. Platinum hit US$2115/oz earlier today, and approaching it 2008 record highs.
American oil prices are up almost +US$1.50 from yesterday at just under US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$62/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday, now at just under 58 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 62.1, and up +30 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,163 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just under +/- 1.3%.
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23 Comments
What a time to be deeply long in the Gold and Silver markets!!
Ole Riverhead man must be shaking in mad minded disbelief and angry spittal.....
2026 will be the year of Miners superprofits and dividends that go up 50 to 100% or more.
Just hope the Govts don't go after them for more funds!!
"Ole Riverhead man must be shaking in mad minded disbelief and angry spittal...."
Good on you for doing well with precious metals, but can you really not write a post without having a dig at others, and rejoicing in their misery ?
I wonder how the councils new flood planes will impact the bog.
'sunken costs'
IT Guy,
"councils new flood planes". Interesting, how do these planes work?
IT Guy,
"councils new flood planes". They will be very useful, how do they work?
RIVERHEAD man is doing just famiously......he told us so.
"You cant go wrong maaatee" "They not makin any more land Maaate"
"Best time to jump aboard the housing Ponzi Scheme was yesterday"
He made squillions.......if only the ducks and bog stilts had money......
The more time you focus on other's misery, the less time you have to focus on your own affairs.
Yvil, you're a worry. In utter frustration you created another account under "Cote" to counter NZGeckos posts, held a conversation with "Cote" to convince others otherwise and here you are suggesting others are distracted from their own affairs?
Really?
You're deluded, I have nothing to do with Côte d'Azur. I only ever had one account, and I can't be bothered with immature, childish plays you accuse me of.
to be fair Côte d'Azur is sort of peak crazy Yvil will actually debate things
I think Côte d'Azur is just a FIFO old style real estate spruiker, never pushes anything but property , no gold no leveraged miners
Sock puppets
Retired-Poppy has a history of accusing commenters of doing this.
Yvil has a history of using multiple accounts to comment...
and you know this how.....?
Ole Riverhead man must be shaking in mad minded disbelief and angry spittal.
People at the water coolers and Xmas parties will be experts (at least pretending to be) on gold and silver this week. The crypto bros and Ponzi cheerleaders seem to be most affected. Married to their assets with tunnel vision and little interest in the bigger picture.
In light of what we're seeing in silver markets, WallStreetBets was the original catalyst for “silver squeeze” meme back in 2021 and the more durable silver-focused energy migrated into dedicated communities like r/WallStreetSilver.
The boomers and the mainstream thought they were mental.
Their thesis was that silver was “the biggest short squeeze in the world,” framing it as heavily manipulated by bullion banks and ripe for a coordinated squeeze via SLV and physical metal. They were mocked and ridiculed. But they never really went away. The leadership has shifted from classic WSB tourists to dedicated silver communities and more institutional money.
I do worry about what happens when JP Morgan dump their silver hoard however. Apparently they have quite a large volume of physical which they could sell. Won’t change the fundamental drivers of the price hike I spose
Trust in JPM's reported physical silver holdings depends heavily on one’s risk tolerance and view of large custodial banks; legally, they disclose and audit holdings under strict regimes, but their manipulation history and conflicts of interest justify a healthy level of skepticism rather than blind trust.
A bank that both trades silver derivatives and controls large vaults and ETF custody has an inherent conflict: it can benefit from short‑term price moves while holding client metal, raising questions about rehypothecation, leasing, or using ETF metal within broader balance‑sheet strategies.
China will be a buyer
Given China has been buying up gold for some time now, I have half a mind to think that they are considering pegging their currency to gold when the eventual collapse of the USD comes and the world flocks to the yuan
It's apparent that the NZ seasons have now shifted a month or two since my childhood in the 1950s / 60s. (Earth wobble...precession...?)
It's therefore time to shift the statutory NZ summer school holiday break into February when there's more likelihood of better weather.
We can then all celebrate Chinese New Year.
Merry Christmas David and all the team... thanks for your efforts and insight.
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