Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of an odd disconnect between official US data and data reported by other agencies.
First, US durable goods orders fell in October from September and by much more than expected. But that did leave them +5.9% higher than year ago levels. Non-defense capital goods orders rose +5.2% on that year-ago basis.
ADP reported a third straight week of private hiring seasonal gains, up an average of +11,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending December 6, 2025. The prior week was revised slightly higher.
US industrial production rose nationally in November from October to be +2.5% higher than year-ago levels.
But the latest factory survey from the Richmond Fed is still quite negative for this mid-Atlantic states region in December. And their services survey inched lower to being more negative too.
Meanwhile the US Conference Board sentiment survey reported that consumer confidence fell again in December and remained well below this year’s January peak. Four of five components of the overall index fell, while one was at a level signaling notable weakness.
Standing in contrast to all this granular detail, the US has officially released its Q3-2025 GDP which was up sharply from Q2. Apparently everything is growing strongly, up +2.3% from a year ago, up +4.3% from the prior quarter. Analysts had expected this result to be lower, not higher than Q2. This report claimed factories are booming (+5.6%), and that personal consumption was up +2.8% from a year ago. Corporate profits were up +9.1% on the same basis. The report also said prices rose +2.7% from a year ago, the highest since mid-2023.
North of the border, in Canada, they report GDP monthly, and their October report shows a dip that wiped out September's gain, mostly due to a slowing factory sector. But the same report forecast a rise in November.
Across the Pacific, China Beijing is huddled in its National People's Congress Standing Committee meetings.
Taiwan continues to report very strong industry gains, this time for November export orders. They surged +39.5% from a year ago to a record US$72.9 bln in the month, even faster than the outstanding +25.1% gain in October. The increase was largely driven by stronger growth in electronic products but they did see slower growth in order for machinery. Not a decrease, just a slower pace of growth.
And we should probably note that the US FDA has been reported to have approved a pill version of the weight-loss drug Wegovy. Until now the semaglutide treatment has only been by injection. Still, it and competing brands have become wildly popular. So much so, they are distorting food consumption patterns. This latest pill-form upgrade will likely make them even more popular.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, little-changed from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +64 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now positive by +21 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is positive by +55 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 2.03%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.78%, down -3 bps from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.58%, down -2 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street is slightly firmer with the S&P500 up +0.4% and that may be enough to claim a new record high. But European markets were mixed between Frankfurt's +0.2%, and Paris's -0.2% dip. Tokyo ended its Tuesday session unchanged, Hong Kong was down -0.1% and Shanghai was up +0.1%. Singapore had another good day, up +0.6%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday with a +1.1% gain and the best of the markets we follow. The NZX50 rose +0.1% in its Tuesday trade.
The price of gold will start today at US$4478/oz, and up +US$41 from yesterday and again, a new record high. Silver has surged to, up another +US$2 to just on US$71/oz, and also a new record high. Platinum hit US$2262/oz and up +US$139/oz, and we make that also a new all-time record high.
Aluminium is back to a three year high, and copper is pushing up, back towards its all-time peak in July.
American oil prices are up almost +50 USc from yesterday at just under US$58.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$62.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday, now at just over 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 62.4, and up another +30 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,813 and down -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed modest, at just under +/- 1.5%.
Please note that there is no podcast version today. It will return later next week.
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10 Comments
"A fierce butter war is taking place in the German retail market," Baan says. "Hard discounters are using packaged butter as a loss leader. The lowest price we are currently seeing is €0.77 for a 250-gram pack of butter.
https://www.openpr.com/news/4312463/milk-prices-plunge-to-lowest-level-…
So if the international market dictates prices in NZ then prices here will decrease too right? 😂
Still $10 per 500gm at my local Countdown. God bless Aotearoa.
Like gas in Colorado at the moment. NZD84c a litre.
Mortgage rates offered this week for lending with over 20% deposit and 1.5% cashback
ANZ
6 months – 4.69%
12 months – 4.49%
18 months – 4.69%
2 years – 4.69%
3 years – 5.09%
4 years – 5.34%
5 years – 5.34%
Floating – 5.19%
Flexi – 5.30%
ASB
6 months – 4.65%
12 months – 4.49%
18 months – 4.45%
2 years – 4.49%
3 years – 5.05%
4 years – 5.35%
5 years – 5.44%
Floating – 5.09%
Orbit – 5.19%
Squirrel broker told me yesterday cashbacks are now down to 0.9%. ANZ confirmed today 1.5% cashback ended 16 December. Who's your broker?
The insane government is continuing to build ancient technology infrastructure, justifying it by claiming it stacks up: https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/policy/lng-for-new-zealand-stacks-up…
You can guarantee that if Nicola Willis has done the maths and claimed something stacks up, it most certainly doesn't. Her definition of stacks up appears to be that it will make the country poorer, so I guess in her mind, it will.
Subsidised solar on rooftops and force solar with subsidies on open carparks would generate so much more energy and without renegging on climate change. This government is clearly paid for by the fossil fuel industries, gut climate change legislation, create gas infrastructure, destroy clean car subsidies, they really are a bunch of fossils with their heads in the ground.
Given the necessity for silver in the production of solar panels and EV's, and with the Chinese running low on it, coupled with the high price which shows no sign of stopping, I am wondering if there is a material constraint on solar panel production and, as such, if there will be an increase in the cost of production flowing through in the next year or two. Nothing can replace silver for conductivity.
This always seems to be peoples arguments, that solar uses xyz and therefore its going to get more expensive. These arguments have been around since the 1980s. I suggest looking at the price of solar over time, industry finds a way.
I've got family who have been in the energy sector all over NZ. They keep up with the inside on what is going on, and informed me that in the past (80's maybe? memory fails me on that point) the possibility of an LNG terminal off New Plymouth was explored. They advised that ultimately there was too greater safety risk having a ginormous storage facility near the city, given an explosion would level it, and the cost effectiveness just wasn't there.
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