US data mixed; mixed Asian industrial production data; China beef producers call for protection from imports; freight rates hold; UST 10yr at 4.14%; metals prices rise; oil retreats sharpy; NZ$1 = 58.3 USc; TWI-5 = 62.3

Here's our summary of key economic events over the holiday break that affect New Zealand, with news the price of risk-haven assets are rising - in USD at least.

But to understand that, we should note the relative weakening of the USD, down -10.2% overall from the start of 2025. Against the Chinese yuan the USD has fallen from 7.36 to the US dollar at the start of 2025, to now just 7 to the USD. That is an devaluation of the USD of -5.0% for the year. The euro has risen almost +13% against the greenback. Over the same period, the AUD has risen +12.5% against the greenback. (But the USD has held its own against the NZD with a -3.3% devaluation. To only do that against a the NZD with its wavering economy just points out the weakness of the US currency.) Even the yen, known to be 'weak' is ending the year little-changed against the USD from where it started.

Obviously, not everywhere is every financial market in the world closed for Christmas and some who do only take one day off.

The US is one of those, so yesterday (Friday) there was official data released. There were 264,000 initial jobless claims last week, an increase of 8,832 (or +3.5%) from the previous week. Seasonal factors had expected an increase of +20,817. There were 275,557 initial claims in the comparable week in 2024, early in the second Trump administration. There are now 1.994 mln people on these benefits, up from 1.946 mln a year ago.

US mortgage applications also slipped last week even though benchmark mortgage interest rates hardly moved.

By sme early accounts, US holiday shopping volumes have been good. No early reports on other markets yet.

Across the Pacific, Japanese industrial production faded in November, down -2.1% from the same month a year ago, hurt by cars and tech. But machinery production was stronger.

But in Taiwan there was more very strong industrial production data for November, up +16.4% from a year ago

In China, an investigation is underway on whether to protect domestic beef production from imports.

And embattled property developer China Vanke, which just days ago got a reprieve on a local bond, has gained further breathing room after investors agreed to extend the grace period of another one, helping them avert an imminent default once again. But this extended grace period is only 30 days.

Singapore's October industrial production surge corrected itself in November, but that left it more than +14% higher than year ago levels.

Container freight rates were little-changed last week, up just +1% with the gains all outbound China to the EU. That left overall rates -42% lower than year-ago levels. Bulk cargo rates were down -11% last week, to be +24% higher than year-ago levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, down -3 bps from this time Wednesday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +65 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now positive by +22 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is positive by +52 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 2.05%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.74%, down -4 bps from Christmas Eve. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.58%, unchanged on that same basis.

Wall Street is little-changed in Boxing Day trade with the S&P500 settling near it's record high and up +2.0% for the week. But European markets were all closed on Friday. Tokyo ended its Friday session up +0.7% rise and a +1.3% weekly gain, Hong Kong was closed but Shanghai was up +0.1% for a +1.6% weekly gain. Singapore was closed, as was the ASX200. Obviously the NZX50 didn't trade either.

The price of gold will start today at US$4515/oz, and up +US$37 from where we left it on Wednesday and again, a new record high. Silver has surged too, up another +US$5.50 to just on US$76.50/oz, and also a new record high. Platinum hit US$2463/oz and up +US$1201/oz, and we make that also a new all-time record high. Palladium is rising too.

Aluminium is back toward a three year high, and copper is pushing up again, now matching its all-time peak in July - and that is despite falling demand in China. Tin and nickel are rising notably as well. Some of these gains are due to USD weakness.

And we should probably keep an eye on the uranium price - simply because AI data centers have such a voracious demand for electricity that there is a new push for substantial nuclear power capacity. It's price has risen +15% so far this year.

American oil prices are down -US$1.50 from Wednesday at just over US$57/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$61/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from Wednesday, now at just under 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 62.3, and down -10 bps from Christmas Eve.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,286 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed modest, at just under +/- 1.5%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».