Here's our summary of key economic events over the holiday break that affect New Zealand, with news of China signaling that it knows it has to deal with its Achilles heel, weak domestic demand.
But first, 2025 will go down as the year precious metals came into their own. And the fading of bitcoin. In 2024, the bitcoin price rose +122% to US$93,615 but faded -6.8% to US$87,287 at the end of 2025. But gold rose +27% in 2024 and put on another +80% in 2025, ending at a record high. Silver did even better, adding +23% in 2024 and then adding +168% in 2025. But the 2025 'winner' has been platinum, rising +172% this year, although to be fair it did slip -7.0% in 2024.
For the NZD equivalents, you can find them in this chart set.
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Why did crypto fade? Probably because the crooks took over the space, scaring off "investors" who need an "honest" market. Trump's involvement, and his pardoning the biggest crypto crooks has been a clear signal to avoid this alternative.
Trump can also take credit for juicing safe haven alternatives, by the weaknesses he directly caused to US Treasuries and the US dollar, and his unbridled trashing of the US's budget future.
This coming week we will get more non-official data including the Texas surveys by the Dallas Fed, the Chicago PMI, and an update of pending home sales.
We will also get industrial production data from India, and from South Korea. Taiwan will release the latest results of its consumer sentiment survey.
Separately, the first of the S&P Global PMIs will start to come in for December for many countries, and they will include both the official and private PMIs from China.
Over the weekend in China, they announced an investigation is underway on whether to protect domestic beef production from imports.
Official data also out over the weekend shows a real squeeze on Chinese industrial profits. They report on a year-to-date basis and the eleven months to November data was their lowest since 2021. Worse, their November month-alone data was their lowest since 2019. Each sub-category they report contributed to this recent weakness; State-owned enterprises, private firms, even foreign-owned firms. The slowdown underscored weakening year-end demand and persistent cost pressures.
Embattled property developer China Vanke, which just days ago got a reprieve on a local bond, has gained further breathing room after investors agreed to extend the grace period of another one, helping them avert an imminent default once again. But this extended grace period is only 30 days.
So, China’s Ministry of Finance said on Sunday that fiscal policies will be more active in 2026, more focused on domestic demand and the social safety net. (Fiscal policies "more active" means "more debt".) More countries are recoiling at the surge in Chinese exports, threatening to block them, and underscoring the urgency of reviving confidence at home, where the prolonged property crisis has rippled through the economy and weighed on sentiment.
Japanese industrial production faded in November, down -2.1% from the same month a year ago, hurt by cars and tech. But machinery production was stronger.
But in Taiwan there was more very strong industrial production data for November, up +16.4% from a year ago.
Singapore's October industrial production surge corrected itself in November, but that left it more than +14% higher than year ago levels.
On Friday in the US they reported 264,000 initial jobless claims last week, an increase of +8,832 (or +3.5%) from the previous week. Seasonal factors had expected an increase of +20,817. There were 275,557 initial claims in the comparable week in 2024, early in the second Trump administration. There are now 1.994 mln people on these benefits, up from 1.946 mln a year ago.
US mortgage applications also slipped last week even though benchmark mortgage interest rates hardly moved.
But by some early accounts, US holiday shopping volumes have been 'good'. No early reports on other markets yet.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.13%, down -1 bp from this time Saturday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +65 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now positive by +21 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is positive by +51 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 2.04%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.75%, up +1 bp from Saturday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.58%, unchanged on that same basis.
The price of gold will start today at US$4533/oz, and up +US$18 from where we left it on Saturday and again, a new record high. Silver has surged too, up another +US$3 to just over US$79/oz, and also a new record high. Platinum hit US$2463/oz and up +US$45/oz, and we make that also a new all-time record high. Palladium is rising too.
Aluminium is back toward a three year high, and copper is pushing up again, now matching its all-time peak in July - and that is despite falling demand in China. Tin and nickel are rising notably as well. Some of these gains are due to USD weakness. But lead, zinc and iron ore are not part of this commodity frenzy.
And we should probably keep an eye on the uranium price - simply because AI data centers have such a voracious demand for electricity that there is a new push for substantial nuclear power capacity. It's price has risen +15% so far this year.
American oil prices are down -50 USc from Saturday at just over US$56.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$60.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday, now at just on 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 62.3, and also unchanged from Saturday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,714 and up +0.5% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at just under +/- 0.3%.
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7 Comments
Thanks for the report, David, and compliments of the season to you.
The opening of the Asian markets this morning will be fascinating.
Add in the rumours circulating that at least two mid-tier commodity trading firms are insolvent as of Friday night, from being caught on the wrong side of the mother of all short squeezes, and today’s trading could well be, ummm... lively?
If silver and gold continue their trajectory from last week, this trade might be the precursor that signals the fracturing of the entire global fiat casino and the beginning of a brand new global financial paradigm.
Methinks, the fix is already broken, and a huge short squeeze is looming. Will the public finally wake TFU from their obsession with Cryptos, AI stocks, and paper bonds, etc, all of which carry massive counterparty risk?
2026 will be a wild ride
Col
Will the public finally wake TFU from their obsession with Cryptos, AI stocks, and paper bonds, etc, all of which carry massive counterparty risk?
The counterparty risk in the crypto space is limited and contained within the ecosystem, The degenerate end of the space has been completely obliterated. Pump.Fun is your barometer. By default, it has also smashed the Solana ecosystem. The space is healing.
Anyway, I wonder if Kick / Switch is more evil than PumpFun for extraction of people's money. The behavior over there is broken.
Hi Phoenix...
"The counterparty risk in the crypto space is limited and contained within the ecosystem, ..."
How so, when by definition the decentralised structure of cryptocurrencies results in minimal regulatory oversight of dodgy intermediaries? Surely, this can lead to fraudulent activities, and hacks can amplify these risks even further.
I will go with this assessment from the link below...
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/11/3/51
"Conclusions
This study described the major cryptocurrencies, presented notable fraud cases, identified fraud risks, and analysed cryptocurrency financial performance. There has been an intense debate over the real value of cryptocurrency. In some past years, cryptocurrency investments have yielded large returns for many investors, but past financial performance does not guarantee future performance. This is especially true if critics are right, and cryptocurrency is simply a new form of the Dutch Tulip Bubble that will eventually leave investors with nothing. Even worse, some have called the cryptocurrency industry a giant Ponzi scheme, a fraud perpetrated by industry leaders, accompanied by endorsements from high-profile celebrities.
Regarding financial performance, two recent years of financial performance by major cryptocurrencies were presented. High returns were followed by dismal financial performance. In addition, several major fraud cases were described. The financial scandals, particularly, the FTX collapse and bankruptcy, have led government leaders to consider new regulations to provide oversight to the industry. What effect this might have on future cryptocurrency financial performance is unknown.
Investments in cryptocurrencies and investments in publicly traded companies are alike in that prices may rapidly rise or fall based on wild speculation. Volatility, though, is much higher for cryptocurrencies, thereby increasing risks enormously. Cryptocurrency versus stock investments are very different, in that the real or intrinsic value of cryptocurrencies is essentially zero, while corporate stock value is ultimately determined by actual corporate profits or lack thereof, as disclosed in the audited financial statements. Understanding the positive and negative aspects of cryptocurrency is important to investors, regulators, and academic researchers regarding the cryptocurrency industry."
Regards
Col
Who is holding the counterparty risk? Banks? They can and do take on counterparty risk when they touch crypto, but regulators have forced that risk into tightly constrained, capital‑intensive buckets and, in practice, most large banks keep direct exposures small.
End users, especially those holding assets with centralized entities (exchanges, lenders, stablecoin issuers, custodial platforms), bear the most counterparty risk in crypto. Among those, retail and smaller institutional clients parked on centralized exchanges and in off-chain–backed stablecoins sit at the sharpest end of the risk.
Silver even making the Ponzi look sober.
If you'd bought 100,000 Kiwi pesos of silver in 2000, it would be 1.3 million today. But if you'd bought a year earlier it could be as much as 2.8 million.
Ashley Church would dispute all this, but the data doesn't lie.
Anyway, there were no silver ETFs available to investors in 2000. They only emerged in the 2000s, with the first major physically backed product SLV, launching in 2006. Incidentally, the first modern gold ETF was launched in March 2003 - GOLD - listed on the ASX.
Let’s say you did buy 100,000 Kiwi pesos of silver in 2000, what would you do now? Hold for more profit, or sell while you can? I know what I’d do!
Just in case anyone is considering at SLV. The following is from Ed Steer’s latest newsletter.. dyodd
The latest short report [for positions held at the close of business on Monday, December 15] showed that the short position in SLV rose by 17.87%...from the 43.65 million shares sold short in the prior report...up to 51.45 million shares in this latest short report that came out this past Wednesday...8.82% of total SLV shares outstanding. This amount is grotesque, obscene -- and fraudulent beyond all description...as there is no physical silver backing any of it as the SLV prospectus requires.
BlackRock issued a warning five or so years ago to all those short SLV that there might come a time when there wouldn't be enough metal for them to cover. That would only be true if JPMorgan decides not to supply it to whatever entity requires it. However, we are far beyond that point now, as the short position in SLV will never be covered through the deposit of physical silver, as it just doesn't exit -- and never will. And if it does exist, it will only be available at a price far higher than what's being quoted in the public domain now. Those short SLV shares are in equal dire straits as those short silver in the COMEX futures market.
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