US data mixed; Japan eyes virtuous cycle; India factories busier; UST 10yr at 4.12%; gold drops back with other precious metals; copper and nickel climb; oil firms; NZ$1 = 58.1 USc; TWI-5 = 62.1, bitcoin heads for -7% annual drop

Here's our summary of key economic events over the holiday break that affect New Zealand, with news of a big correction overnight in precious metals prices. And Wall Street is down today as tech valuation worries return.

But first, US pending home sales volumes rose +3.3% in November from an upwardly revised October and far better than expected. It was a fourth consecutive increase. Growth was across all areas of the country, strongest in the West (+9.2%), weakest in the Midwest (+1.3%).

Meanwhile the Dallas Fed factory survey shifted slightly more negative in December, to its lowest level since June, while the outlook index sank deeper into negative territory and indicating a deterioration in perceptions of broader business conditions. The turn was led by a sharp fall in new orders.

Across the Pacific,Taiwanese consumer confidence held at the relatively low level it has been at since May.

In Japan, the release of their central bank meeting minutes revealed that they see further interest-rate increases and a gradual reduction in monetary accommodation, which won't hurt "sustainable price stability". They seem surer that Japan is entering a virtuous cycle of moderately rising wages and prices that match their outlook for economic growth and inflation.

Singapore's producer prices rose a bit slower in November than October, up +2.2% from the same month a year ago.

India reported its industrial production lept in November by +6.7% from year ago levels, the biggest gain since October 2023. This was a surprise given analysts had expected just a +2.5% recovery from a modest October rise.

The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.12%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +65 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now positive by +19 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is still positive by +51 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 nps at 1.85%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up + bp and back at 2.05%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.74%, dipping - bp from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.56%, down -2 bps on that same basis.

Wall Street has opened with the S&P500 down -0.3%. Overnight, European markets were little-changed. Yesterday Tokyo closed down -0.4%. Hong Kong closed down -0.7%, but Shanghai was little-changed. Singapore dipped -0.1%. The ASX200 fell -0.4%. And the NZX50 was little-changed.

The price of gold will start today at US$4325/oz, and down a very sharp -US$205 from yesterday. Silver has fallen relatively more, down -US$7.50 to just under US$71.50/oz. Platinum is down to US$2099/oz and down -US$364/oz.

There was no similar pullback in the US copper price, touching US$12,925/tonne and it record high. It is being held up there by US tariff-taxes. Also, the nickel price has jumped overnight because Indonesia, the world's top nickel producer, proposed a 34% reduction in nickel output in its 2026 budget to tackle growing concerns of oversupply and warnings from miners that ore grades are deteriorating. But in the big scheme of things the new price level isn't much different to where it was a t the start of the year.

American oil prices have recovered almost +US$1.50 from yesterday at just under US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is up a bit less at just over US$61.50/bbl. Still that just leaves its price at the same levels it was just prior to the pandemic.

The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday, now at just under 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 86.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 62.1, and also down -20 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,663 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.9%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».