Here's our summary of key economic events over the holiday break that affect New Zealand with news global trade is rising and quite impressively, but the US is being shunned (or shunning itself).
But first, US initial jobless claims rose more than +29,000 last week, marginally more than level seasonal factors would have accounted for. But there are now just under 2.2 mln people on these benefits and quite a bit higher than a year ago. Modest hiring and rising firings are driving these trends.
Although the December month layoff data was unusually low, it does cap the full year layoff level at just over 2 mln and the most since the pandemic, and prior to that, the most since the GFC.
Analysts are expecting tomorrow's release of December non-farm payrolls to rise just +60,000, similar to the low November level.
In their December survey, the New York Fed reports it showed US labour market expectations worsened (almost one in seven people expect to lose their jobs in 2026) and short term inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4% but were unchanged over the longer terms.
US exports rose and imports fell in the October data released overnight. The US trade deficit narrowed sharply to -US$29.4 bln in the month, the smallest gap since June 2009. Exports rose 2.6% or +US$7.2 bln to a record $302 bln. Imports declined -3.2% to a 21-month low of $331 bln. But this is really a story about gold flows more than tariff effects. Precious metal exports rose +US$10.2 bln in the month and without those, exports would have fallen. Imports of gold fell -US$1.4 bls. Their largest monthly gaps were recorded with Mexico (-US$18 bln), Taiwan (-US$16 bln), Vietnam (-US$15 bln) and China (-US$14 bln). The trade gap with the EU narrowed sharply to -US$6.3 bln.
Canada also reported trade data overnight. In October, Canada's merchandise imports increased +3.4%, while exports were up +2.1%. As a result, Canada's merchandise trade balance went from a small surplus of +C$243 mln in September to a deficit of -C$583 mln in October. Basically they remain in balance on this measure. But the transition away from trade with the US is sharp. Again, these flows have a large gold component too.
In China, private analysts shows that their property market slump deepened in 2025, with new-home sales shrinking -9% to levels not seen since before 2010 and falling by roughly half from their 2021 peak. Total sales value fell by nearly -13% according to this respected analysts.
Japanese consumer sentiment, which has been improving since April, hesitated in December at just below the November level. Another improvement was expected, although the difference is small.
It was a very similar story in the EU, with a December hesitation after a nine month string of improvements.
Meanwhile, the survey for the ECB on consumer inflation expectations shows them unchanged in November at 2.8%.
On the industrial front however, producer prices fell -1.7% in November from a year ago, more than the -0.5% in October, but less of a deterioration than the -1.9% expected. They actually rose slightly from the prior month and by a bit more than anticipated.
German factory orders rose sharply in November and by much more than expected, up +5.6% from October, up +10.5% from the same month a year ago.
In Australia, the trade surplus narrowed in November as major commodity exports fell, and capital goods imports signalled a possibility of softer business investment in the December quarter.
Globally, air passenger travel rose +5.7% in November from a year ago. international travel was up +7.7%. But it was all driven by the +7.8% rise from the Asia/Pacific region.
Meanwhile air cargo traffic rose a similar +5.5% in November, also driven by the +11.1% rise in international cargoes in the Asia/Pacific region. North American flows declined.
Global shipping container freight rates rose +16% last week from the prior week to be now -35% lower than year-ago levels. Outbound rates from China to both the US and EU rose sharply. Bulk cargo rates fell -6% last week, and are now +25% higher than a year ago.
The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.18%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +69 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now at +24 bps and the 3 mth-10yr curve is more positive, now by +56 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is holding higher at 1.89%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 2.09%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.65%, down -2 bps from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at 4.46%, down -7 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street is on hold with the S&P500 little-changed in Thursday trade. Overnight, European markets were all alos little-changed. Tokyo pulled back further, closing down -1.6% in its Thursday trade. Hong Kong fell -1.2%, but Shanghai was only down -0.1%. Singapore ended down -0.2%. The ASX200 ended its Thursday trade with a +0.3% rise. The NZX50 ended unchanged.
The price of gold will start today at US$4460/oz, and up +US$2 from yesterday. Silver is down -US$2 to US$76/oz.
American oil prices are up +US$1 from yesterday at just over US$57/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$61.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday, now at just under 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 85.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.5, and down -30 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$90,887 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.
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19 Comments
Data from Queenstown Airport showed 895,669 arrivals from January 2025 to November - nearly 40 percent higher than the same period in 2019.
The airport recorded about one private jet arrival or departure each day, making up about a third of the country's total private jet movements.
Just read an article about the relentless boom in Queenstowns economy. I would like to see Queenstown measured in isolation. There's Queenstown and then there's the rest of the NZ economy.
Those private jets are likely to get more common after this episode of Macro Voices, detailing the extensive tax advantages for rich overseas investors moving to New Zealand. I found it an interesting different perspective - the other side of the foreign buyer ban debate and the FiF scheme.
Foreign buying - these rich investors find it crazy they can't buy a property to establish a foothold in the country.
FiF - they can't believe how low the tax rate is and how it simplifies capital gains on their overseas holdings. And this is on top of the 4 year tax free period on overseas earnings.
Feels like there should be an interesting debate happening about the pros and cons of encouraging this kind of migration, but the facts on the ground are such that it is likely to increase. Good news for holders of $5 million dollar homes in Auckland/Queenstown.
https://www.macrovoices.com/1485-macrovoices-513-why-are-all-the-rich-g…
I think you will find many countries in the world vying for the 1%ers. Question is whether Queenie can really take market share from the likes of Little Cayman. I don't believe its cachet appeals to everyone. I would like to see harder evidence that ultra-HNWIs are moving to Aotearoa over other destinations. On the ego gratification measure, I can't see why people would give up Monaco for QT.
Anyway, places like Dubai are awful and Aotearoa is far nicer. The crypto grifters all love Dubai because it's so simple to get established. Also good for criminal royalty. But the places is no soul or culture. In many ways, you could say the same about Queenie, but at least there's nature.
Yes, it's a competitive area. Have a listen - the presenter is a wealthy investor who is speaking in glowing terms about the NZ immigration and tax structure, although pretty down on the higher-end residential offerings. The pitch is that NZ is now a better refuge for these people than places like Singapore and Auckland is almost like a proper city, while Queenstown is obviously very appealing.
It is a different world to the one I inhabit, but interesting to hear. To give the general vibe, the presenter also has an issue with Auckland's airport -> city helicopter service landing too far from the city centre.
QT is obviously desirable for HNW Caucasians (not all). Plenty of evidence that suggests Asian HNWIs prefer places like S'pore and Tokyo.
HNWI from China are increasingly treating Tokyo as both a safe‑haven asset base and a “Plan B” living hub, with the flow clearly up since 2023 and intensifying through 2025–26.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/06/26/japan-migration-millio…
Sydney’s Aspen.
Widespread benefit fraud being exposed in Minnesota and indications emerging of ditto in California. Both Democrat strongholds but hard to imagine isn’t it that such activity is isolated to just these two states. Nonetheless it does resonate somewhat obliquely, with the observation by someone way back something like - the only difference between Republican and Democrat administrations is that in the latter, the poor too, are allowed to be corrupt.
Mis Manage my health records....Bryce has some interesting comments https://www.democracyproject.org.nz/p/democracy-briefing-why-the-misman…
We see the effects of over regulation whilst maintaining a lack of accountability in for example, the leaky homes saga. Losses socialised, gains privatised. And now in privacy. Next I am guessing in electricity supply prices to households vs those big beautiful non taxpaying data centres.
Sit on our hands again? I wonder what Tim would have done? At least he would have made us laugh as we contemplated our stupidity.
Hard to say but it seemed to me that the elder Tim eventually became in essence, of the very nature about which the younger Tim had protested so vigorously?
Then we have the government forcing legal gun owners to put all all their details on a system with a history of leaks. The legal gun owners certainly are not safer and meh for the illegal gun owners.
An hour ago I received the MMH notification that my records have been compromised (a single historical specialists letter that has my name address email phone NHI number...)
I changed my password when the problem was publicised last week & have set 2FI.
Trump has publicly said he is directing his representatives in government to buy roughly $200 billion of mortgage bonds using Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac cash, with the stated goal of narrowing mortgage spreads and pushing mortgage rates lower ahead of the 2026 midterms.
https://investinglive.com/news/trump-proposes-200bn-mortgage-bond-buyin…
Good news for Zach if he's around - the Iran protests are up to the lead story on BBC. The regime have apparently shut down the internet to stifle protests. Trump, Vance, Greenland, and ICE shooting members of the public all relegated to lower down the page.
Yes, it takes a lot to get the MSM off Democrat talking points. Maybe next week for TVNZ/RNZ?
If you could shut down the internet to stifle protests it would have been done weeks ago. Perhaps the IRGC don't want their slaughter live streamed?
No longer the lead story however it will be interesting to see what happens over the weekend.
Japan 10Y JGB is trading around 2.1% as of early January 2026, near a 27‑year high.
China 10Y CGB is around 1.9% over the same period.
So a new bond market order is in play with Japan–China 10Y spread of roughly +20 basis points in Japan’s favor.
And people wonder why gold sniffed this out and why people aren't behaving (except the Chinese) accordingly.
Dangers of the gold rush. The Taliban have suspended the operations of a Chinese gold mining company in Chah Ab district of Takhar province and detained two people on suspicion of murder following deadly clashes with local residents.
Sources said the protests were triggered by concerns over severe environmental damage and water shortages caused by what residents described as unregulated mining.
Gold mining in Afghanistan sounds pretty high risk. Imagine your boss giving you that assignment.
High risk is an understatement. Embarking on an endeavour with a militant group who could seize your product and mine at any point for whatever they feel the reason to be, and in such an isolated place it isn't worth trying to get it back by force. Seems like they are willing to lose it if they go in there
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